Riches in the Niches

<p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Dan and Sean kick off 2026 with a look back at their 2025 predictions—what hit, what missed, and what's carrying over into the new year. From government shutdowns to Big Tech dominance to the DEI pendulum swing, they grade their calls before diving into what's ahead.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> The big theme for 2026? Geopolitics. With power shifting in Venezuela, potential regime change in Iran, and Trump making noise about Cuba, the hosts break down their "cold Fourth Turning" thesis—consequential global realignment without World War-scale conflict.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> On AI, they push back on the "hype bubble bursting" narrative with real examples of transformative use (including Dan having Claude work on projects while he slept). They also dig into economic policy critique, the resilience of the American economy despite central planning missteps, and why they're cautiously bullish on 2026.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Key Topics:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">2025 predictions scorecard</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Geopolitics as the defining story of 2026</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Taiwan's slow-motion transition (the Hong Kong playbook)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">AI: public perception vs. actual capability</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Aggregation theory and ecosystem opportunities</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Economic outlook: muddling through despite bad policy</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Links & References:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a href= "https://stratechery.com/aggregation-theory/">Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory</a>: stratechery.com</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Road to Serfdom</em> by Friedrich Hayek (and the <a href= "https://cdn.mises.org/Road%20to%20Serfdom%20in%20Cartoons.pdf">1940s cartoon adaptation</a>)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Fourth Turning</em> by Strauss & Howe</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a href= "https://www.bls.gov/jlt/">JOLTS Data: Bureau of Labor Statistic</a></li> </ul>