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45 episodes across YouTube and podcast platforms.
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The Canary in the Gig Mine
May 31, 2026
<h1 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.375rem] font-bold"> Three Weeks to Get Numb</h1> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> This week Dan and I sit with a question that's been quietly bothering both of us: have we all just gotten numb? Dan says it only takes three weeks to get numb to anything. I had to agree. Once we saw two data points for the same trend, the rest of the conversation flowed. If the standard warning system has gone quiet, what canaries are still working?</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We began to build a bellwether basket. Not Netflix (too sticky), not Amazon Prime (it delivers the diapers — that's a <em>bottoming</em> signal, not a stress signal), but the second-tier streaming subs (Paramount, HBO) where the swing voter actually shows up. Dan offered the cleanest signal of the episode: at DoorDash, don't watch order count — watch the delta between pickups and deliveries. When pickups maintain while deliveries fall, that's the belt actually tightening. We talked through coupon-scan volume as a possible two-sided-marketplace business (somebody build this), median rent, dating-app subscriptions, home-security subs. I told Dan about my own confession — I hadn't watched grocery unit prices in twelve years and now I check them every trip. Dan said the same thing started for him about eighteen months ago. We are, apparently, our own data points.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Dan plants a thesis for September. Strategic oil reserves are at or near zero in pretty much every country outside the US, the Northern Hemisphere heating season is about to kick on, and farmers in the Philippines and Thailand are under-fertilizing for the 2026 rice cycle. He called it a "triple quadruple whammy." Mark your calendars — that one's specific enough to be falsifiable, and it's going into the predictions file.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Then we shifted to the macro question: US debt now exceeds GDP for the first time since 1946. Japan's been over 200% for a long time, so it's not unprecedented, but it does narrow the policy options. Dan and I came down hard on the same side: you don't coupon your way out of this — you grow your way out. Dan's working frame is that AI might be the productivity multiplier that makes that math work. "If the rare unicorn engineer in Silicon Valley was the 10x engineer," he asked, "what if everyone worth 50% IQ and up is now a 10x person?" That's the bet. Pair it with immigration and assimilation (which we still do better than anyone) and the path is at least <em>findable</em>, even if the politics around getting there are nuts. He closes us out by quoting Marco Rubio — yes, I know, <em>that</em> Marco Rubio (and yes, the Sad Marco meme remains my favorite of the year) — but his recent line on national exceptionalism is the kind of thing Dan wants to bottle up and give to everyone: <em>we are exceptional, the color of your skin doesn't matter, your education doesn't matter, all you have to do is get after it.</em> I won't argue with that.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Thanks for sticking with us through a slightly more diagnostic episode than usual. The numbness is real, but the signals are still out there if you know where to look — and the cure for high prices, as Dan likes to say, is high price. Creation fills, consumption drains.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Go build something everybody.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> — Sean</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Tools & Platforms Mentioned</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/">FRED — St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Database</a> — the gas-prices-as-percent-of-take-home-pay data source. The series you want is <em>Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product</em> (<a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S">GFDEGDQ188S</a>) for the chart we walked through.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml">SEC EDGAR</a> — the disclosure-data source I named for the bellwether-tracker project I keep promising to ship.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> David Deutsch's Twitter (<a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://twitter.com/DavidDeutschOxf">@DavidDeutschOxf</a>) — Dan recommends turning notifications on; he's all over what's happening in the UK right now.</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Companies Discussed</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Streaming / subscription:</strong> Netflix, Paramount, HBO, Amazon (Prime)</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Food delivery:</strong> DoorDash, Uber Eats, McDonald's</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Retail / consumer:</strong> H-E-B (Texas grocery), Walmart, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Heinz, Tide, Johnson & Johnson</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Home security:</strong> ADT, SimpliSafe</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Dating / social:</strong> Bumble, OkCupid (historical)</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Luxury / event:</strong> LVMH (Hermès Birkin), Live Nation, Ticketmaster, Miami Grand Prix</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Sports / live:</strong> NWSL — Houston Dash, Denver Summit</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Links & References</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S">FRED chart: Federal Debt as % of GDP</a> — the line we walked: 40% in 1942 → ~105% post-WWII → ~23% by 1974 → mid-90s peak around 90% → 2001 local bottom → 100.2% today.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/JPN">IMF Japan debt-to-GDP historical</a> — for the comparison-case figures Dan cited (232–260% range over recent years).</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp">Trading Economics — Japan Government Debt to GDP</a> — Dan's specific source for the Japanese numbers.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.wsj.com/">Wall Street Journal — US debt now exceeds the size of the economy</a> — the chart Dan shared; sourced from White House OMB, Treasury, BEA.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memos">Howard Marks memos at Oaktree</a> — referenced in spirit (cure-for-high-prices-is-high-price register).</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Grand_Hotel"> Hilbert's hotel / "infinity hotel"</a> — the David Deutsch concept that came up again in passing.</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Unqualified Fact-Check</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟢 <strong>Sean (~03:16):</strong> "FRED, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Database… you can go in and find these great data sets that go back 100 years in some cases." Correct. FRED is the canonical free macro-data archive; many series go back to the 1920s–1930s, and gas-price plus median-income data are both available there. The exact "gas price as percent of take-home pay" ratio Sean references isn't a packaged series, but it's straightforwardly computable from FRED inputs and is, directionally, at multi-decade lows.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟢 <strong>Sean (~33:30 → 37:00) US debt-to-GDP walk:</strong> "40% in 1942 → about 105% by 1950 → bottoms around 23% in 1974 → climbs to about 90% in early 1990s → local bottom 2001 → 100.2% today." Strong. All figures align with FRED's GFDEGDQ188S series (Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product). The 23% trough in the mid-1970s and the 100%+ figure today are both correct to within a point.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟢 <strong>Dan (~37:17 → 37:51) Japan debt-to-GDP:</strong> "232 to 260% as of 2024 to 2025… high of 258 in 2020." Directionally accurate. IMF's general-government gross-debt-to-GDP for Japan was ~257% in 2020 and is currently estimated in the 234–250% range for 2025. Dan's numbers are within 2–3 points of consensus.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟡 <strong>Dan (~13:43):</strong> "Christmas isn't happening" / inflation prediction walk-back. This is an in-episode revision of a prior call from May 2025 (<em>Calling All Mental Nomads</em>, where Dan's "$1,600 Nintendo Switches" prediction was made). Dan revises in real-time: the prediction didn't come true the way he expected. Tracked in the Canon Predictions file as <code class= "bg-text-200/5 border border-0.5 border-border-300 text-danger-000 whitespace-pre-wrap rounded-[0.4rem] px-1 py-px text-[0.9rem]"> christmas-2025-supply-shock</code>; this episode is the on-mic acknowledgment that the prediction came in softer than forecast. Yellow rather than red because the prediction was explicitly flagged as "exaggeration, directionally meant seriously" when made.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟢 <strong>Dan (~31:38):</strong> "You make a bad tweet [in the UK] and the police seem to be showing up your door." Real phenomenon. The UK's Communications Act 2003 §127 and Public Order Act 1986 have been used to prosecute social-media speech, including multiple high-profile cases in 2024–2025 (Allison Pearson, the Southport-riots prosecutions, the Bee on the Wall case). Directionally accurate.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟡 <strong>Sean (~10:43):</strong> "Caviar is on trend right now." Half-confirmed. There's been a real TikTok/Instagram-driven "caviar bump" in 2024–2025 (multiple trade-press pieces flagged it; Imperial Caviar and The Cure Company ran the social campaigns). Whether it qualifies as "on trend right now" depends on the recording date — the trend may have already peaked.</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">🟢 <strong>Dan (~30:19):</strong> "Never bet against humanity / never doubt human ingenuity." This is a running theme of the show (Dan: "we've said that's been a running theme of ours"), and the inheritor of my <em>Because Molecules</em> closer "never bet against ingenuity." Promoting from UNSURE to Confirmed in the show's Canon RunningBits file.</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Final score: 5🟢 / 2🟡 / 0🔴.</strong> <strong>One-line summary:</strong> A diagnostic episode with no real errors — the macro figures are accurate, the directional claims hold up, and the only yellows are an in-show prediction revision and a "is this still hot?" trend question.</p> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Chapters</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>0:00</strong> — Cold open: three weeks to get numb</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>0:17</strong> — Sign-on / Houston heat / NWSL</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>1:30</strong> — Mud season in Crested Butte</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>2:30</strong> — Have we all gotten numb? (the body version)</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>3:00</strong> — Fuel prices vs. take-home pay (FRED)</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>5:00</strong> — Hardship vs. going backwards</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>6:30</strong> — Building the bellwether basket: streaming subs</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>8:20</strong> — DoorDash: pickup vs. delivery as the belt-tightening signal</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>10:00</strong> — Birkin bags, caviar, and signals from the rich</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>14:15</strong> — The cure for high prices is high price</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>15:00</strong> — The September thesis (oil + heat + crops)</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>16:30</strong> — "The Adams keep moving" — smuggler's paradise</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>18:30</strong> — Food inflation propagation, rice's reach</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>20:00</strong> — The hosts themselves as bellwethers: unit-price scanning</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>21:30</strong> — Coupon-scan volume as alt-data</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>23:30</strong> — Maslow's hierarchy: rent, safety, gym subscriptions</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>25:30</strong> — Dating apps and gamification fragility</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>27:20</strong> — The body could puke it up</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>30:15</strong> — Never bet against humanity / sex or drugs</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>30:45</strong> — AI safety, free expression, and oblique prompts</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>31:35</strong> — UK police and bad tweets</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>33:30</strong> — WSJ chart: US debt > GDP, 1942–today</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>37:15</strong> — Japan as the comparison case (232–260% of GDP)</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>39:00</strong> — Drive it down vs. expand out of it</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>39:30</strong> — The 10x-engineer-for-everyone thesis</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>42:00</strong> — Mind virus and the messaging problem</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>42:30</strong> — Hormuz callback / we got used to it</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>43:30</strong> — Birth rate, immigration, growth levers</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>44:20</strong> — 300k-from-side-hustles as the new normal</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>46:10</strong> — The Marco Rubio "bottle it up" line</li> <li class= "font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>47:25</strong> — Wrap: go build something</li> </ul>
Rules for Thee, Alpha for Me
Apr 27, 2026
<p><!-- obsidian --></p> <p><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>Two Hundred Bucks and a Stock Tip</strong></span></p> <p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>This week Dan and I sit with a question that has been bothering me for a while and got sharper this week thanks to a perfect natural experiment: a US Army NCO got charged for making four hundred thousand dollars on Polymarket betting on the Maduro raid he was part of. Around the same time, Senator Markwayne Mullin bought stock in Chevron — the only US-listed company with Venezuelan oil operations — days before the same operation. The senator's position is up about twenty-two points over the S&P. The soldier is going to prison. The senator is going to a committee hearing.</p> <p>We get into why that gap exists, what the data on congressional trading actually shows (it's more nuanced than the headlines), why the STOCK Act has a two-hundred-dollar fine and zero prosecutions in roughly a decade, and whether the answer is more rules or more sunlight. Spoiler: I came in believing one thing and Dan talked me partway out of it.</p> <p>We also fall down a few side roads we couldn't resist — the French guy who spoofed a Polymarket weather contract by holding a hairdryer to the airport temperature sensor (still my favorite grift of 2026), the term-limits and lifetime-appointments question, and a riff about reading David Deutsch and Rory Sutherland in the same week. Dan plants a seed at the end about something we've both been wrestling with: what happens to investing when you bolt a probabilistic machine (LLMs) onto a deterministic one (the legacy quant playbook). That one's coming in a future episode.</p> <p>Thanks for sticking with us. We are, by Dan's accurate diagnosis, "the weird ones because this is what we choose to do with our weekend." Go build something.</p> <p>— Sean</p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Books Discussed">Books Discussed</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beginning_of_Infinity" target= "_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beginning_of_Infinity" data-tooltip-position="top"><em>The Beginning of Infinity</em></a> by <a class="external-link" href="https://www.daviddeutsch.org.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.daviddeutsch.org.uk/" data-tooltip-position= "top">David Deutsch</a> — Dan's "infinity hotel" reference is from this book. Dense but rewarding.</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alchemy_(book)" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alchemy_(book)" data-tooltip-position="top"><em>Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don't Make Sense</em></a> by <a class="external-link" href="https://www.ogilvy.com/people/rory-sutherland" target= "_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.ogilvy.com/people/rory-sutherland" data-tooltip-position="top">Rory Sutherland</a> — I'd reread it tomorrow. Sutherland: please write another one.</li> <li><em>Money Stuff</em> (Bloomberg newsletter) by <a class= "external-link" href= "https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AS6n3pwU3Tw/matthew-s-levine" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AS6n3pwU3Tw/matthew-s-levine" data-tooltip-position="top">Matt Levine</a> — Dan's source for the Tesla-SpaceX-merger reasoning. Subscribe.</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Tools & Platforms Mentioned">Tools & Platforms Mentioned</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://polymarket.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://polymarket.com/" data-tooltip-position= "top">Polymarket</a> — prediction market; site of both the Maduro-raid bet and the hairdryer hack</li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://kalshi.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label="https://kalshi.com/" data-tooltip-position="top">Kalshi</a> — regulated prediction market</li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://www.capitoltrades.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.capitoltrades.com/" data-tooltip-position= "top">Capitol Trades</a> — primary public source for congressional trade disclosures</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/" data-tooltip-position="top">Quiver Quantitative</a> — best aggregated data and portfolio-return modeling on Congress</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Companies Discussed">Companies Discussed</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Chevron (CVX)</strong> — the Mullin trade</li> <li><strong>Tesla (TSLA)</strong>, <strong>SpaceX</strong>, <strong>xAI</strong>, <strong>Cursor</strong>, <strong>US Steel</strong> — all in the Musk-merger riff</li> <li><strong>Renaissance Technologies, Citadel, Jane Street, AQR</strong> — the legacy-quant universe in the AI-investing plant</li> <li><strong>Google Cloud</strong> — financial-services partnerships (CME, Citadel)</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Links & References">Links & References</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://unusualwhales.com/etf/NANC" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label="https://unusualwhales.com/etf/NANC" data-tooltip-position="top">NANC — Subversive Democratic Trading ETF</a> — tracks Democratic Congress trades; trailing 12-month return ~30%.</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://unusualwhales.com/etf/KRUZ" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label="https://unusualwhales.com/etf/KRUZ" data-tooltip-position="top">KRUZ — Subversive Republican Trading ETF</a> — tracks Republican Congress trades; trailing 12-month return ~18%.</li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://pelositracker.app/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://pelositracker.app/" data-tooltip-position="top">Pelosi Tracker (pelositracker.app)</a> — the dedicated single-name tracker.</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ105/PLAW-112publ105.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ105/PLAW-112publ105.htm" data-tooltip-position="top">STOCK Act (2012) — full text on Congress.gov</a></li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-advances-pelosi-act-to-ban-congressional-stock-trading-out-of-committee/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-advances-pelosi-act-to-ban-congressional-stock-trading-out-of-committee/" data-tooltip-position="top">Hawley press release — PELOSI Act advances out of Senate committee, July 2025</a></li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/abs/abnormal-returns-from-the-common-stock-investments-of-the-us-senate/A39406479940758D59E09FDCB8EE9BEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/abs/abnormal-returns-from-the-common-stock-investments-of-the-us-senate/A39406479940758D59E09FDCB8EE9BEC" data-tooltip-position="top">Ziobrowski et al. (2004) — <em>Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate</em></a> — the original ~85 bps/month finding.</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://j-hai.github.io/assets/pdf/capitol.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://j-hai.github.io/assets/pdf/capitol.pdf" data-tooltip-position="top">Belmont et al. (2022) — <em>Capitol Losses</em></a> — the post-STOCK-Act revised verdict.</li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://www.wsj.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label="https://www.wsj.com/" data-tooltip-position="top">WSJ — Soldier charged with $400K Polymarket bet on Maduro capture</a> (search "Polymarket Maduro soldier")</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Grand_Hotel" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Grand_Hotel" data-tooltip-position="top">Hilbert's Hotel / "infinity hotel"</a> — the concept Dan referenced from <em>The Beginning of Infinity</em></li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Unqualified Fact-Check">Unqualified Fact-Check</h2> <ul> <li> <p>🔴 <strong>Sean (~17:18):</strong> "Back before 2004 when they passed the Stock Act, I think it was 2004…"<br /> The <strong>STOCK Act was passed in April 2012</strong>, not 2004. The 2004 date is the <strong>Ziobrowski et al. study</strong>, which analyzed 1993–1998 Senate trading data and found ~85 basis points/month abnormal returns. Different document, ten years apart, both important — Sean conflated them. (The directional point — that congressional alpha looked larger before the legislation forced disclosure — is correct.)</p> </li> <li> <p>🟢 <strong>Sean (~09:43):</strong> "I'm sure that there's a system where if you're an NCO, you can only go to..."<br /> Correct. US Army NCOs run E-4 (Corporal) through <strong>E-9 (Sergeant Major of the Army)</strong>. Above that are warrant officers (W-1 to W-5) and commissioned officers (O-1 to O-10). NCOs do max out at E-9 — Sean was right (and Sean explicitly asked us to fact-check this on-mic).</p> </li> <li> <p>🟢 <strong>Sean (~12:08–12:23):</strong> "NANC, plus about 30%... S&P plus 25%... Republicans... trailing the market by a good 8 percentage points."<br /> Approximately correct. Trailing-12-month: NANC ~28.78–31.54%; KRUZ ~18.14%; SPY ~25%. Sean was within a point on each.</p> </li> <li> <p>🟡 <strong>Sean (~17:55):</strong> "Top decile of Congress trades at about plus 30%, which is impressive that that's over every era."<br /> Directionally correct but slightly oversold. The Ziobrowski (1993–1998) and Belmont et al. (2022) papers find that the top decile of Congress members significantly outperforms the market, but +30% as a constant across all eras is a rough approximation. The actual top-decile alpha varies by year and era; +30% is roughly right for the most-active high-frequency traders in recent years.</p> </li> <li> <p>🟢 <strong>Sean (~20:07):</strong> "$200 fine... zero prosecutions on these 200-plus incidents since [2012]."<br /> Correct on both counts. STOCK Act late-filing fine is $200 (with a member-applied waiver path); per multiple Sludge / Business Insider audits, dozens of late-filing violations have been documented and zero criminal prosecutions have occurred.</p> </li> <li> <p>🟡 <strong>Sean (~19:42):</strong> "since 2014, [late reports have] been going up every year from single digits. Now we're seeing about 50 trades a year that aren't reported on time."<br /> The trend direction (rising late-filings) is correct. The specific year-over-year shape is approximate — different audits use different definitions of "late." 50/year is in the right neighborhood.</p> </li> <li> <p>🟢 <strong>Sean (~12:14):</strong> "Mark Wayne Mullen right there with his Mark Wayne Mullen trade wasn't in great size — only $50,000 when I saw reported."<br /> Correct. Mullin's Chevron disclosure was $15,001–$50,000 (Capitol Trades / Senate disclosure), purchased Dec 29, 2025; the position is up ~24% with SPY up ~3% over the same window.</p> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Final score: 1🔴 / 2🟡 / 4🟢.</strong><br /> <strong>One-line summary:</strong> Strong on the data, sloppy on the date — the STOCK Act is a 2012 law, not a 2004 one, but the directional argument holds.</p> <h2 data-heading="Chapters">Chapters</h2> <ul> <li><strong>0:00</strong> — Cold open / cemetery bike ride</li> <li><strong>2:24</strong> — Sean's lawyer routine: setting up a non-US VPS</li> <li><strong>3:48</strong> — The rules don't apply to them: Senator vs. Soldier</li> <li><strong>6:18</strong> — The Charles de Gaulle hairdryer hack</li> <li><strong>8:13</strong> — Polymarket fraud cases and Special Forces NCO</li> <li><strong>11:22</strong> — NANC vs. KRUZ vs. SPY: the Congress-tracker ETFs</li> <li><strong>13:35</strong> — No incumbents: term limits across all three branches</li> <li><strong>16:30</strong> — The STOCK Act, $200 fines, and zero prosecutions</li> <li><strong>21:00</strong> — What would real reform look like?</li> <li><strong>24:10</strong> — Sunsets, DOGE, and reform-by-iteration</li> <li><strong>26:55</strong> — David Deutsch, Rory Sutherland, and the infinity hotel</li> <li><strong>28:30</strong> — The Tesla/SpaceX merger prediction</li> <li><strong>36:30</strong> — Plant: probabilistic vs. deterministic in AI-driven investing</li> <li><strong>44:00</strong> — Wrap and sign-off</li> </ul>
Prometheus Politicking
Apr 20, 2026
<h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Stealing Fire for the People</h2> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Dan's been thinking about Prometheus — not as a myth, but as a political archetype. The person who steals fire and hands it to the people is a very different animal than the one who steals it and keeps it for themselves. That framing runs underneath the whole hour.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We start with Dan's top-down vs. bottoms-up read of American politics, wander through Christopher Alexander's <em>A Pattern Language</em> and what organic growth looks like (London streets vs. Manhattan grid, Dresden rebuilt block by block), and land on the labor market — where Dan drops the line that carries the rest of the episode: <em>if people are in pain, they'll vote.</em> The question is what they vote <em>for</em>. So we spent most of the hour sketching a reform menu — tax code, trade, safety net, government structure, civic fabric — and what candidate we'd actually want running on it. Burke shows up, as does the idea that representatives were supposed to be deliberators, not delegates. Somewhere around the 51-minute mark I asked Claude on-mic to stitch all of this into a candidate profile, which you'll find right below.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Thanks for sticking with us. A little heavier than usual, and we think the weight is earned.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Cheers, Sean</p> <blockquote class= "ml-2 border-l-4 border-border-300/10 pl-4 text-text-300"> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> "If people are in pain, they'll vote."</p> </blockquote> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold">The Promethean Candidate (v0.1)</h2> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> A first-pass profile of the candidate we'd actually want to vote for. Not a platform. A posture.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Core disposition</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Deliberator, not delegate — per Burke, willing to disagree with constituents when the evidence demands it, and willing to explain why.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Organic, not imposed — comes from the community they represent, not parachuted in.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Signals less, builds more — comfortable being boring on cable news.</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Trade</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Regulatory parity on imports — foreign producers shouldn't enjoy lower compliance costs than domestic ones.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Strategic, not blanket, tariffs — targeted at genuine national-security or parity issues.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Honest about the losers of trade liberalization, and willing to fund real transition support rather than empty retraining rhetoric.</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Tax Code</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Radical simplification — fewer brackets, fewer deductions, shorter forms.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Hostile to rent-seeking by tax-prep intermediaries (see: Intuit).</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Willing to raise revenue where the math demands it, not just cut.</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Safety Net</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">A real floor, with fewer strings — simpler programs, less means-testing theater.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">No benefit cliffs that punish the single mom for earning a raise.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unemployment paid as a lump sum when it buys real mobility, not drip-fed weekly as a posture of distrust.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Housing supply taken seriously as a safety-net issue, not just a market one.</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Civic & Communal Fabric</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">A mandatory year of service out of high school — military, community, or public works — explicitly designed to mix people across geography and class.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Tax incentives for the physical places where people actually gather: pubs, pickleball courts, civic clubs, third places.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Civic education reform, taken personally.</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>What the profile is not</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Not a platform of purity tests. Not a single-issue candidate. Not someone who thinks the answer is more viral moments.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <em>— v0.1. We'll steel-man it, stress-test it, and keep building.</em></p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Proposed Constitutional Edits</h2> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> The structural changes the Promethean Candidate can't deliver alone — these sit above the candidate level and would need amendment, major statute, or a genuine constitutional moment.</p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>One six-year presidential term, no reelection</strong> — space to plan without campaigning through the job.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Upper and lower age limits on office</strong> — not just a floor; the cognitive-decline ceiling is overdue.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Sunset clauses on every bill touching the power of the purse</strong> — nothing funded in perpetuity by default.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Gerrymandering gone</strong> — county lines or nothing. Districts should follow geography, not incumbents.</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Campaign advertising gated to a short window before the vote</strong> — paid advertising limited in time; earned media and direct voter engagement are unaffected.</li> </ul> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Books Discussed</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Pattern_Language"><em>A Pattern Language</em></a> by <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.patternlanguage.com/">Christopher Alexander</a></li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Companies & Organizations Mentioned</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.intuit.com/">Intuit / TurboTax</a> — the tax-code-complexity lobby in residence</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.bls.gov/">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> — the jobs data in question</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Links & References</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm">BLS — Employment Situation</a> — the non-farm payroll data behind Sean's charts</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s7.html">Edmund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol (1774)</a> — the "deliberator, not delegate" source</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Good_Place_(book)">Ray Oldenburg — <em>The Great Good Place</em> (third places)</a></li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.profgpod.com/"><em>Prof G Markets</em> — Catherine Edwards interview</a> — the labor-market conversation Dan referenced</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h2> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We said some things. Here's how we did.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Burke really did say that.</strong> Dan attributed to Edmund Burke the idea that a representative is a deliberator, not a delegate. Real — from Burke's 1774 <em>Speech to the Electors of Bristol</em>, where he argued his constituents owed him their trust to exercise independent judgment. Textbook-accurate.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>BLS revisions are the real story.</strong> Sean's chart and Dan's read on it — the economy has been adding fewer jobs than originally reported and benchmark revisions have been consistently downward — is directionally accurate and matches multiple quarters of labor data.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Third places — Ray Oldenburg.</strong> Dan's attribution is correct. <em>The Great Good Place</em> (1989). Right concept, right source.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🔴 <strong>Intuit's market cap.</strong> Sean said Intuit was "10 to 20 billion." Off by roughly an order of magnitude — actual market cap is around $97–109B. The larger point about Intuit lobbying to keep tax prep complicated is accurate, but the number was way off.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>Pattern Language as political metaphor.</strong> Using Christopher Alexander's <em>A Pattern Language</em> as a metaphor for organic political movement isn't something Alexander himself argues, but it's a fair extension of his framework. Partial credit.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Final Score: 3 green, 1 yellow, 1 red.</strong> One order-of-magnitude miss, one stretched-but-earned metaphor, and Burke holding the scorecard together. We'll know Intuit's market cap next time.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Chapters</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">0:00 - Cold Open (Burke on Representatives)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">0:40 - Show Open & Welcome</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">1:34 - Headlines, Reality, and the Photographer's Frame</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">3:53 - Bottoms-Up vs. Top-Down: China and the US</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">5:47 - A Pattern Language and Organic Cities</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">10:19 - Dresden, Bauhaus, and Rebuilding</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">13:35 - "History Rhymes"</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">14:27 - Labor Market Warning Signs</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">16:40 - The Generational Squeeze</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">18:47 - Building an Ideal Candidate</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">19:03 - Reform Menu: Tax Code (and the Intuit Problem)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">19:43 - "If People Are in Pain, They'll Vote"</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">23:01 - Reform Menu: Trade and Import Parity</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">24:03 - Reform Menu: The Safety Net</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">28:33 - Sunset Clauses on Every Bill</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">29:44 - Prometheus, Burke, and Deliberation</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">31:30 - Reeducating on What Government Is For</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">34:49 - The Performative Culture War</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">35:26 - Reform Menu: Government Structure, Term Limits, Age Limits</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">38:53 - Gerrymandering and Campaigns</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">43:07 - Family Size and Communal Fabric</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">46:34 - A Mandatory Service Year</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">50:02 - The Lost Third Places</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">51:29 - Host Note: Ideal Candidate Profile</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">53:51 - Closing Thoughts & Sign-Off</li> </ul>
Sold Down the River
Apr 13, 2026
<p><!-- obsidian --></p> <p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>This week on Unqualified Advice, we started looking at the phrase "Sold down the river." The phrase's dark history goes back to the cotton gin, 1793, and the horrific expansion of slavery that followed. It was an unfortunate example of Jevons Paradox in action, which brought us our thread for the episode: when technology makes something more efficient, demand doesn't shrink — it explodes. Sound familiar?</p> <p>From there we pulled the lens forward to AI. Dan shared a data center bans tracker and the map of which states are welcoming vs. blocking this infrastructure is illuminating — the industrial North might be flipping into the hollowed-out NIMBY North while the Deep South booms.</p> <p>Then we jumped overseas — the Strait of Hormuz, Citrini Research's on-the-ground reporting, and Singapore's foreign minister on why the Strait of Malacca matters more than people think.</p> <p>Go get your hands dirty this week.</p> <p>Cheers,<br /> Sean</p> <p><em>"The industrial North is flipped and it's going to be the industrial South and the hollowed out NIMBY North."</em></p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Shows/Films Discussed">Shows/Films Discussed</h2> <ul> <li><em>The Man in the High Castle</em> — Amazon series reimagining a world where Germany and Japan won WWII</li> <li><em>Breaking Bad</em> — Referenced in passing (New Mexico)</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Tools & Platforms Mentioned">Tools & Platforms Mentioned</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://www.datacenterbans.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.datacenterbans.com/" data-tooltip-position= "top">datacenterbans.com</a> — State-level tracker of data center bans, moratoriums, and incentives across the US</li> <li>Riverside — Recording/editing platform (where the sausage gets made)</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Companies Discussed">Companies Discussed</h2> <ul> <li>OpenAI / Sam Altman</li> <li>Nvidia</li> <li>SpaceX / Starlink</li> <li>BYD</li> <li>Waymo</li> <li>TSMC</li> <li>Samsung</li> <li>AMD</li> <li>Amazon</li> <li>Lime</li> <li>Walmart</li> <li>Citrini Research</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Links & References">Links & References</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://www.datacenterbans.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.datacenterbans.com/" data-tooltip-position= "top">datacenterbans.com</a> — Interactive US map tracking data center legislation by state</li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://citriniresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://citriniresearch.com/" data-tooltip-position="top">Citrini Research</a> — James Van Geelen's investment research firm; their Strait of Hormuz field report is now outside the paywall</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox" data-tooltip-position="top">Jevons Paradox (Wikipedia)</a> — The counterintuitive principle that efficiency gains increase total resource consumption</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://dp.la/primary-source-sets/cotton-gin-and-the-expansion-of-slavery" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://dp.la/primary-source-sets/cotton-gin-and-the-expansion-of-slavery" data-tooltip-position="top">Cotton Gin and the Expansion of Slavery</a> — Digital Public Library of America resource on the cotton gin's impact</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://prometheusdispatch.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://prometheusdispatch.substack.com/" data-tooltip-position= "top">Dan's Prometheus Dispatch — "The Tab"</a> — Dan's Substack essay on US global commitments and the Strait of Hormuz</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍">Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h2> <p>We said some things. Here's how we did.</p> <p>🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <p>🟢 <strong>Cotton gin invented in 1793</strong><br /> We said Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin in 1793. Correct — he built his first prototype in 1793 and received his patent on March 14, 1794. We got the year right.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>What the cotton gin actually does</strong><br /> We described it as mechanizing "the sorting or the picking of the cotton bowls from the seeds and the husks." Close but not quite — the cotton gin separates cotton <em>fibers</em> from seeds using rotating teeth pulled through narrow slots. No husks involved. The picking of cotton itself remained entirely manual. Half credit for getting the general idea right.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>Jevons Paradox applied to the cotton gin</strong><br /> We called the cotton gin story "the Jevons Paradox of the whole thing." Textbook application. William Stanley Jevons observed in 1865 that more efficient steam engines led to <em>more</em> coal consumption, not less — exactly what happened with cotton and enslaved labor after the gin. Well played.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Mississippi is "state number 11" in reading after implementing phonics</strong><br /> Dan said Mississippi "instituted phonics" and became "state number 11" in reading. The phonics story is real — Mississippi's Literacy-Based Promotion Act (2013) produced dramatic improvements. Their exact national ranking varies by source and metric: somewhere between 9th and 21st depending on the year and assessment. Close enough for a podcast, but the #11 claim is hard to pin down precisely.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Oregon spent "$11 billion extra dollars on education" with declining scores</strong><br /> Dan said Oregon spent $11 billion extra on education and saw reading scores decline. The direction is absolutely correct — Oregon dramatically increased education spending (including $1.62 billion in federal pandemic relief) while posting some of the lowest fourth-grade reading scores in the nation. The $11 billion figure appears overstated, but the point stands: dollars didn't equal outcomes.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>Strait of Hormuz narrowest point is 21 miles</strong><br /> We said the nearest point at the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles. Confirmed — it's 21 nautical miles at its narrowest. The shipping lanes are even tighter: two 2-mile-wide channels separated by a 2-mile buffer zone.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Strait of Malacca narrowest point is 2 miles</strong><br /> We said the Strait of Malacca narrows to 2 miles based on Singapore's foreign minister's comments. It's actually about 1.5 miles (2.8 km) at the Phillips Channel near Singapore. Close — and the broader point about it being dramatically tighter than Hormuz is correct.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>SpaceX wants to build data centers in space</strong><br /> Dan said SpaceX is pitching data centers in space as part of their IPO valuation story. Confirmed — SpaceX filed FCC plans in January 2026 for satellites that would serve as orbital data centers. Still highly speculative but definitely being discussed.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>BONUS: Shad is indeed a fish</strong><br /> Sean blurted out "shad" instead of "shall" and then claimed shad is a fish. He's right! Shad are saltwater fish of the herring family (<em>Alosa</em> genus), with about 30 species worldwide. The American shad is the largest herring species. Sean, take a victory lap on this one.</p> <p><strong>Final Score: 5 green, 4 yellow, 0 red</strong><br /> Strong showing this week. The Jevons Paradox callout was chef's kiss, and even the ad-lib fish taxonomy was on point. We'll take it.</p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Chapters">Chapters</h2> <ul> <li>0:00 - Introduction</li> <li>0:55 - "Sold Down the River": The Dark History Behind the Phrase</li> <li>6:36 - The Jevons Paradox of AI</li> <li>9:30 - Who Should Lead the AI Revolution?</li> <li>19:07 - Data Center Bans: A Map of America's Future</li> <li>22:36 - Mississippi's Phonics Miracle vs. Oregon's Billions</li> <li>28:03 - The Indiana Brain Drain</li> <li>31:05 - NIMBYism and the New Rust Belt</li> <li>36:34 - Incentive Design: Tax Breaks, Power Plants, and EVs</li> <li>43:02 - The Midwest Flip: Vacation Cottages and Office Space</li> <li>51:08 - Strait of Hormuz: Who's in Control?</li> <li>54:31 - The Strait of Malacca and Singapore's Fundamentals</li> <li>59:29 - Kamala Harris and the Pendulum</li> <li>1:02:06 - Have We Graduated from COVID?</li> </ul>
Because Molecules
Apr 2, 2026
<p><!-- obsidian --></p> <p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>This week on Unqualified Advice, Dan and I dove headfirst into the Hormuz Strait crisis — and what started as a conversation about oil prices turned into something much bigger. The strait went from 120 ships a day to about 5. The cascade from that single chokepoint touches everything from the gas in your car to the chips in your phone to whether your local hospital can run an MRI.</p> <p>We brought charts this week (you know it's serious when the charts come out), and we walked through the shale revolution numbers that honestly blew my mind. We're producing three times the oil we were in 2000 with 37% fewer rigs — the productivity story of American energy is wild when you see it laid out. Then we got into helium, and that's where things got uncomfortable. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium, the Ras Laffan facility got hit by missiles, and guess what helium is used for? Semiconductors, MRI machines, rockets, quantum computing. Oh, and the US used to have a strategic helium reserve. We sold it off. Right before we started building chip fabs.</p> <p>We game out scenarios — from the "toll booth" regime Iran is already running (charging $2 million per ship, some payments in yuan) to China's potential power play where they let the chaos build for a few weeks and then swoop in as the rescuer. I introduced what I'm calling "risk washing" — the idea that the market correction isn't purely about Iran; it's people using geopolitics as a socially acceptable excuse to de-risk positions they already wanted to exit. Dan had a great riff on anti-supply politics and why windfall taxes on energy companies are the exact wrong move during a shortage.</p> <p>We closed on something I've been thinking about all week: Trump's approach isn't grand strategy — it's an orientation. Black and white, transactional, applied consistently to everything from personal relationships to geopolitics. Once you see it as orientation rather than strategy, a lot of the noise starts making sense. Despite all the chaos, we keep coming back to the same thing: never bet against ingenuity. The shale revolution proved we don't have to stay stuck. The only way out is through.</p> <p>Cheers,<br /> Sean</p> <h2 data-heading="Links & References">Links & References</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://research.gavekal.com/article/shattered-assumptions-and-the-energy-quandary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://research.gavekal.com/article/shattered-assumptions-and-the-energy-quandary/" data-tooltip-position="top">Gavekal Research: "Shattered Assumptions and the Energy Quandary"</a> — The article that kicked off our pre-show prep; argues energy is structurally underweighted in portfolios</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-odd-lots-30972803/episode/now-theres-a-helium-shortage-and-it-affects-more-than-balloons-328227009/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-odd-lots-30972803/episode/now-theres-a-helium-shortage-and-it-affects-more-than-balloons-328227009/" data-tooltip-position="top">Odd Lots: "Now There's a Helium Shortage and It Affects More Than Balloons"</a> — Nick Snyder of North American Helium on why helium scarcity matters for semiconductors and beyond</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-odd-lots-30972803/episode/the-petrochemicals-shock-thats-already-rippling-through-plastics-327997117/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-odd-lots-30972803/episode/the-petrochemicals-shock-thats-already-rippling-through-plastics-327997117/" data-tooltip-position="top">Odd Lots: "The Petrochemicals Shock That's Already Rippling Through Plastics"</a> — Philip Geurts of BloombergNEF on the naphtha cracker crisis</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-irans-disruption-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-matters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-irans-disruption-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-matters/" data-tooltip-position="top">Brookings: "Why Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz matters"</a> — Comprehensive overview of what flows through the Strait</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://fortune.com/2026/03/25/larry-fink-iran-war-oil-prices-two-extremes-recession-growth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://fortune.com/2026/03/25/larry-fink-iran-war-oil-prices-two-extremes-recession-growth/" data-tooltip-position="top">Fortune: Larry Fink's "$40 or $150 oil" interview</a> — The binary framing we referenced</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍">Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h2> <p>We said some things. Here's how we did.</p> <p>🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <p>🟢 <strong>Strait of Hormuz traffic collapse</strong><br /> Sean said ship traffic dropped from "about 120 a day" to "about 5 a day." Maritime intelligence firm Windward confirms ~120 daily transits pre-conflict, and tracking data shows as few as 5 per day by late March. Nailed it.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>Brent crude 2008 peak</strong><br /> Dan said Brent peaked at "148-149" in 2008. The actual peak was ~$145-148 per barrel in July 2008, depending on the exchange. Close enough to round up. Green light.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>US oil production: 14.5 million barrels per day</strong><br /> Dan said US production was "about 14.5 million barrels a day at end of 2025." The EIA reports the actual record was 13.6 million bpd in 2025. He's about 900K barrels high — that's a noticeable gap but the directional story (massive growth from ~5.8M in 2000) is completely right.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Drilling laterals: 2,500 feet in 2000 to 11,000 today</strong><br /> Dan said average lateral length went from 2,500 ft in 2000 to 11,000 ft today. Current Permian averages are ~10,500+ ft, so 11K is close. The 2,500 ft figure for 2000 is plausible for early horizontal wells. We'll give partial credit — the trajectory is right even if the starting point is hard to pin down exactly.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>$2 million toll per ship</strong><br /> Sean reported Iran is charging "$2 million" per vessel to transit Hormuz. This figure has been widely reported but not independently verified. Sean gets credit for flagging his own uncertainty: "I don't know if that's accurate." Self-awareness earns you a yellow.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>3x production with fewer rigs</strong><br /> Dan said we're producing "three times the amount we were in 2000 with 20-30% fewer rigs." Production went from ~5.8M bpd to ~13.6M bpd (about 2.3x, close to 3x with NGLs included), and rig counts have declined significantly from early-2000s peaks. The productivity story is real.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Helium reserve sold for $1.4 billion</strong><br /> Dan said the helium reserve "cost $1.4 billion over 30 years, sold for $1.4 billion over 30 years." The reality: the reserve had accumulated $1.4B in debt by 1995, and Congress directed the sell-off to repay it under the Helium Privatization Act of 1996. The dollar amounts are roughly right but the framing of "cost vs. sold for" oversimplifies the accounting.</p> <p><strong>Final Score: 3 green, 4 yellow, 0 red</strong><br /> Solid outing. The energy numbers held up well, the macro story is right, not a bad outing. </p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Chapters">Chapters</h2> <ul> <li>00:00 - Introduction & Weekend Check-In</li> <li>02:09 - The Hormuz Crisis: A Monster With No Head</li> <li>05:11 - Market Corrections & What They're Really Saying</li> <li>08:33 - Risk Washing: The New AI Washing</li> <li>09:23 - "Because Molecules": Energy Is Prosperity</li> <li>10:04 - Ship Traffic Collapse: 120 Per Day to 5</li> <li>14:03 - Germany's Nuclear Failure & Ideological Energy Policy</li> <li>16:50 - Make America Poland Again (MAPA)</li> <li>20:38 - The Helium Crisis Nobody's Talking About</li> <li>28:39 - Charts: The Shale Revolution in Numbers</li> <li>35:00 - The Drilling Productivity Miracle</li> <li>38:50 - Anti-Supply Politics & Windfall Taxes</li> <li>40:58 - Investment Thesis: Buy Canadian Oil</li> <li>44:29 - Scenarios: From Muddle-Through to Tsunami</li> <li>47:19 - China's Four-Week Power Play</li> <li>50:34 - Data Centers as Strategic Targets</li> <li>55:06 - Cuba: The Next Distraction?</li> <li>57:50 - Trump's Orientation: Black, White, and Transactional</li> <li>01:02:22 - Code Pink, Claude, and Understanding Opposing Worldviews</li> <li>01:05:02 - The Leopard: Change to Stay the Same</li> <li>01:08:18 - What to Watch This Week</li> <li>01:10:26 - Bond Markets, Housing, and the Rate Squeeze</li> <li>01:12:44 - Closing: Never Bet Against Ingenuity</li> </ul>
The Rich Dentist and the Housing Divide
Mar 30, 2026
<p><!-- obsidian --></p> <p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>This week on Unqualified Advice, we did something we don't usually do — we took a victory lap. Sort of. Back in January 2025, on Episode 22 ("Showing off Our Big Shiny Crystal Balls"), I said on the record that we'd see a sizable scandal grow within private credit within the year. Fourteen months later, Boaz Weinstein and Saba Capital showed up with tender offers at a 35% discount to NAV, Blue Owl is gating redemptions, and the whole private credit complex is having what you might call a moment. So we opened with the question that's been rattling around in my head: is being early the same as being wrong?</p> <p>We break down BDCs, closed-end funds, and why a "rich dentist" in one of these things should probably be paying closer attention to his mail this week. Dan makes a genuinely compelling case that hedge funds — yes, hedge funds — are a net positive for society because they create liquidity in places that would otherwise be dry wells. I push back a little, he pushes back on my pushback, and we land somewhere around 70% agreement, which for us is practically a group hug.</p> <p>Then Dan brings something completely different to the table: Nir Eyal's new book on belief. The fact/faith/belief framework leads us into rewriting personal narratives, Prometheus Rising, and a story about Dan listening to an 18-minute Alan Watts lecture on YouTube that turned out to be entirely AI-generated. He felt genuinely uplifted by it. Then he Googled it and — poof — it doesn't exist. Welcome to the future, where your morning inspiration might be fabricated and it doesn't even matter because the feelings were real.</p> <p>From there we pivot hard into housing, and this is where the episode gets real. Dan frames the housing divide as the root cause of populist energy on both sides of the political spectrum — and uses Adam Grant's givers/matchers/takers framework to explain why people who feel locked out start voting for policies that economists unanimously hate. We do live mortgage math on air: $600K starter home, 6.5% rate, 10% down — you need to take home $180K a year just to qualify. In Denver. For a paired home where you share a wall. We connect it back to the Strait of Hormuz disruption potentially spiking inflation and pushing rates even higher, which would make housing even less affordable, which would push more matchers into taker behavior. It's a loop, and right now nobody's found the exit.</p> <p>We end where we usually end — somewhere between honest pessimism and stubborn optimism. The only solution for pain might be other pain. But also: grow the pie, participate, plant a tree. Both things can be true.</p> <p>Cheers,<br /> Sean</p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Books Discussed">Books Discussed</h2> <ul> <li><em>Indistractable</em> by Nir Eyal (referenced as his prior book)</li> <li><strong>Nir Eyal's new book on belief</strong> (untitled in conversation — just hit NYT bestseller list)</li> <li><em>Prometheus Rising</em> by Robert Anton Wilson</li> <li><em>Give and Take</em> by Adam Grant (givers/matchers/takers framework)</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Shows/Films Discussed">Shows/Films Discussed</h2> <ul> <li><em>The Big Short</em> — The Richard Thaler / Selena Gomez scene explaining CDOs and synthetic CDOs</li> <li><em>Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure</em> — Brief mention re: bringing historical figures to the modern day</li> <li><em>The Mandalorian</em> — "This is the way" reference</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Tools & Platforms Mentioned">Tools & Platforms Mentioned</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Claude</strong> — Sean and Dan discuss using AI for steelmanning arguments and finding blind spots in your thinking</li> <li><strong>YouTube</strong> — Dan's fake Alan Watts lecture; AI-generated content proliferation</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Companies Discussed">Companies Discussed</h2> <ul> <li>Blue Owl Capital, Saba Capital, Cox Capital Partners, BlackRock, Blackstone, Tri-Colour, First Brands, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo</li> </ul> <h2 data-heading="Links & References">Links & References</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-money-stuff-the-podcast-164725399/episode/boaz-weinstein-327447282/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-money-stuff-the-podcast-164725399/episode/boaz-weinstein-327447282/" data-tooltip-position="top">Money Stuff Podcast — Boaz Weinstein episode</a> — Weinstein lays out the case against Blue Owl's BDCs, the 25-point marking spread, and warns of systemic risk</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://fortune.com/2025/11/29/poverty-line-140000-political-rage-affordability-crisis-inflation-cost-of-living/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://fortune.com/2025/11/29/poverty-line-140000-political-rage-affordability-crisis-inflation-cost-of-living/" data-tooltip-position="top">Michael Green's "Poverty at $140K" analysis</a> — The recalculated poverty threshold Dan references</li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://www.nirandfar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.nirandfar.com/" data-tooltip-position="top">Nir Eyal — Author site</a> — For his new book on belief</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://rss.libsyn.com/shows/513538/destinations/4404023.xml" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://rss.libsyn.com/shows/513538/destinations/4404023.xml" data-tooltip-position="top">Episode 22: "Showing off Our Big Shiny Crystal Balls"</a> — The original prediction episode from January 2025</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍">Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h2> <p>We said some things. Here's how we did.</p> <p>🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <p>🟢 <strong>The Ep 22 private credit prediction</strong><br /> Sean said in January 2025 that "we're going to see a sizable scandal grow within private credit within the next year." Fourteen months later, Blue Owl is gating redemptions, Saba Capital is making activist tender offers, and the private credit space is under genuine structural stress. The prediction landed — it just took a slightly different form (structural crisis vs. fraud scandal, which Sean acknowledged on air). Full marks.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Blue Owl saw "7-8% redemption rate" on a quarterly tender</strong><br /> Sean said Blue Owl saw "about a 7 to 8% redemption rate." The standard quarterly limit is 5%, but actual redemption <em>requests</em> for Blue Owl's OTIC fund spiked to around 15% of NAV in recent quarters. The 7-8% figure may conflate the capped payout with the request rate. Directionally correct that requests exceeded the 5% cap, but the specific number is imprecise.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Saba offered at a "35% discount"</strong><br /> Sean said the tender offer was at "basically a 35% discount." The actual offer was $3.80/share for OBDC II, representing a 34.9% discount to NAV after accounting for dividends. Close enough for podcast math — calling it 35% is fair rounding.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>"The average home is now over 400"</strong><br /> Sean said the average home price nationally is "over 400." The median existing-home price was $398,000 as of February 2026 (just under), but the median for all homes including new construction was $429,226, and new home median was $400,500. Depending on which metric you use, he's either just barely under or solidly over. We'll give it to him — the spirit of the claim is right.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Energy was "20 or 30% of the S&P" vs. "5 or 6% today"</strong><br /> Sean said energy costs as a share of the S&P were "20 or 30%" historically versus "5 or 6% today." The current energy sector weight is actually 3.6% — even lower than he said. Historically, energy peaked at about 28% of the S&P 500 in the early 1980s, so the "20 or 30%" historical figure is accurate for that era. The comparison is directionally strong, but the "5 or 6%" current figure is a little high.</p> <p>🟢 <strong>Michael Green's "$140,000 poverty line" analysis</strong><br /> Dan referenced Michael Green's analysis that "$140,000 a year is a poverty line salary in some parts of the country." Michael W. Green (Simplify Asset Management) did publish this analysis in late 2025, calculating $136,500-$150,000 as a revised poverty threshold for a family of four based on modern spending patterns. Spot on.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>"You need to basically double your income" to afford the same house post-2022</strong><br /> Sean said affordability requires doubling your income. The math depends on your starting point, but: a home at 3% vs. 6.5% interest roughly increases monthly payments by 40-50%, and when combined with the 30-40% price appreciation since 2020, the total affordability gap can approach 80-100% more income needed. "Double" is in the ballpark for worst-case scenarios (expensive metros + rate jump), but it's an upper-bound characterization, not an average.</p> <p>🟡 <strong>Sean's rate is "right at, right above two"</strong><br /> Sean said his mortgage rate is "right at, right above two." If he refinanced in late 2020 or early 2021 (the absolute bottom of the rate cycle), sub-2.5% 30-year fixed rates were available to well-qualified borrowers. Plausible and consistent with his mention of serial refinancing. We'll take it on faith.</p> <p><strong>Final Score: 3 green, 5 yellow, 0 red</strong><br /> Solid showing. The private credit prediction payoff is the headline, and the live mortgage math was impressively close to reality despite being done on the fly. The boys did their homework this week.</p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Chapters">Chapters</h2> <ul> <li>00:00 - Cold Open / Intro</li> <li>01:47 - Is Being Early the Same as Being Wrong?</li> <li>02:08 - The Private Credit Prediction Comes True</li> <li>06:00 - Boaz Weinstein and the Rich Dentist</li> <li>09:30 - Why Should a Normal Person Care About Private Credit?</li> <li>14:15 - Every Great Company Was Also a Fraud</li> <li>17:46 - Are Hedge Funds Actually Good for Society?</li> <li>21:02 - What's on Dan's Mind: Nir Eyal and the Power of Belief</li> <li>24:10 - AI-Generated Content: The Fake Alan Watts Lecture</li> <li>26:19 - The Housing Divide: You Missed Your Window</li> <li>30:00 - Takers, Matchers, and the Politics of Resentment</li> <li>34:45 - Live Math: What It Actually Costs to Buy a Starter Home</li> <li>38:50 - The Rate Lock-In Trap</li> <li>41:03 - Can the Market Solve Housing?</li> <li>45:25 - This Is Tearing Us Apart: The K-Shaped Economy</li> <li>49:45 - The Only Solution for Pain Is Other Pain</li> <li>52:00 - Agency, Fourth Turnings, and Planting Trees</li> <li>54:01 - Wrap-Up: Grow the Pie</li> </ul>
The Economics of Power
Mar 23, 2026
<p><!-- obsidian --></p> <p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>This week on Unqualified Advice, we opened with a deceptively simple question: how's the oil market? Turns out, the Strait of Hormuz isn't flowing oil, and that particular "simple" problem unravels into one of the most complex cascades of consequence we've talked about in months. We're talking supply chains, geopolitics, chip manufacturing, and yes — the helium problem nobody's talking about yet.</p> <p>I spent two years working in a chem plant. When Dan asked if priming a pump was a good analogy for what happens when you shut down energy infrastructure, I had to say yes. It's exactly what happens. You can't just turn these things back on like a light switch. The math is brutal. The timing is slow. The dominoes fall fast. We went deep on oil flows, LNG for Taiwan, the geopolitical chokepoint that is the Strait, and then — and this is where it gets interesting — we stumbled onto the real quiet bomb: helium.</p> <p>From there, we pivoted to Iran, leadership structure, and why our military planning didn't account for the enemy actually punching back. (Spoiler: "everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face.") Dan brought some really compelling nuance here, balancing legitimate concerns about military escalation with optimism about what comes next for the Persian people. It's complicated, but worth sitting with.</p> <p>Then we took a walk through 1929. Radio stocks, aeronautics, RCA going to the moon on speculation, margin lending extending to regular Americans who had no business being in the market, and then — the crash. The scary part? Some of those dynamics rhyme today with AI and tech. But we also noted the system has matured; we have guardrails now that didn't exist then. That doesn't mean we're safe, just safer.</p> <p>It was a grab bag of a conversation — geopolitics, markets, history, philosophy, and frustration. The kind of episode that leaves you thinking about cascades, second-order effects, and whether we're actually planning for any of this or just stepping on toys in the dark.</p> <p>Cheers,<br /> Sean</p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Books Discussed">Books Discussed</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(novel)" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(novel)" data-tooltip-position= "top"><em>Dune</em></a> by <a class="external-link" href= "https://dunenovels.com/frank-herbert/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://dunenovels.com/frank-herbert/" data-tooltip-position= "top">Frank Herbert</a> — Cited as an allegory for current geopolitical supply chain crises ("the spice and Arrakis")</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_(book)" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_(book)" data-tooltip-position= "top"><em>1929</em></a> by <a class="external-link" href= "https://www.andrewrosssorkin.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener nofollow" aria-label="https://www.andrewrosssorkin.com/" data-tooltip-position="top">Andrew Ross Sorkin</a> — Sean is reading this account of the market crash and the Glass-Steagall era</li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sympathizer" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sympathizer" data-tooltip-position="top"><em>The Sympathizer</em></a> by <a class="external-link" href= "https://vietnguyen.info/author-viet-thanh-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://vietnguyen.info/author-viet-thanh-nguyen" data-tooltip-position="top">Viet Thanh Nguyen</a> — Dan is currently reading this</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Tools & Platforms Mentioned">Tools & Platforms Mentioned</h2> <ul> <li>Riverside — Transcript editing platform (referenced by Sean in production context)</li> <li>Twitter / Substack — Mentioned for various ideas and analysis encountered</li> <li>Chamath Palihapitiya's ventures — Discussed as example of pump-and-dump schemes in modern era</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Companies Discussed">Companies Discussed</h2> <ul> <li>RCA — Radio stock bubble of 1920s</li> <li>SpaceX — Innovation in helium-free rocket engines</li> <li>TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) — Helium supply constraints, chip production</li> <li>Jabal Ali Free Zone (Dubai) — Manufacturing hub disrupted by Strait closure</li> <li>Silicon Valley Bank — Contrast with 1930s bank failures (one vs. hundreds)</li> <li>JP Morgan Chase — Struggled through 1930s financial crisis</li> <li>Citi Bank — Struggled through 1930s financial crisis</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Links & References">Links & References</h2> <ul> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis" data-tooltip-position="top">2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Wikipedia</a></li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/helium-statistics-and-information" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/helium-statistics-and-information" data-tooltip-position="top">Helium Production Worldwide — U.S. Geological Survey</a></li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/taiwan-energy-generation-and-storage" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/taiwan-energy-generation-and-storage" data-tooltip-position="top">Taiwan Energy Mix 2026 — Taiwan Power Company</a></li> <li><a class="external-link" href= "https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking-panics-1930-31" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label= "https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking-panics-1930-31" data-tooltip-position="top">Bank Failures During the Great Depression — Federal Reserve History</a></li> <li><a class="external-link" href="https://adamgrant.net" target= "_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" aria-label="https://adamgrant.net" data-tooltip-position="top">Adam Grant on Givers, Matchers, and Takers</a> — Referenced framework for understanding human motivation in organizational contexts</li> </ul> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍">Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h2> <p>We said some things. Here's how we did.</p> <p>🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <hr /> <p>🟢 <strong>Strait of Hormuz oil disruption scale</strong></p> <p>Sean said "20 to 30 million barrels of product a day" flows through the Strait. The Strait of Hormuz actually handles about 20–21% of the world's daily oil supply, which translates to roughly 20–30 million barrels per day depending on demand. Sean nailed the scale. The disruption has been described as the largest since the 1970s energy crisis and the largest in the history of the global oil market, with Brent crude hitting $126 per barrel at peak.</p> <hr /> <p>🟡 <strong>Taiwan's LNG electricity dependency</strong></p> <p>Sean said "40% of Taiwan's electricity from LNG." As of January 2026, Taiwan Power Company's generation mix actually shows natural gas (which includes LNG) at 50.2%. Taiwan is targeting a power generation mix of 50% natural gas, 27% coal, and 20% renewables by end of 2026. Sean was in the ballpark but slightly underestimated; it's closer to 50% now, not 40%. Close enough for riffing, but not quite right on the specific number.</p> <hr /> <p>🟢 <strong>Helium supply concentration</strong></p> <p>Dan cited "30-40% of the world's helium supply" sourced from the Persian Gulf region. Global helium production data shows the United States produces about 42% of reported world total (81 million cubic meters in 2025), with Qatar the second-largest producer. The point about geographic concentration and strategic vulnerability is solid—Qatar and the US dominate, and disruption to either affects global supply severely. Dan's framing is essentially correct about the concentration risk.</p> <hr /> <p>🟢 <strong>Lindbergh's flight timing</strong></p> <p>Sean referenced "Lindbergh had just kind of happened right around that time" in the context of the late-1920s speculation frenzy leading to the 1929 crash. Lindbergh's solo transatlantic flight occurred on May 20–21, 1927 — which is exactly "right around that time." The aeronautics boom it fueled was a real driver of 1920s stock speculation. Sean nailed this one.</p> <hr /> <p>🟡 <strong>1930s bank failures scale</strong></p> <p>Sean said "five or 600 banks closing during the time," and I can see why the number felt uncertain. The actual figure: more than 9,000 banks failed between 1930 and 1933, with 4,000 suspended in 1933 alone. An average of about 600 per year during the 1920s, but the Depression was catastrophic. Sean was citing the pre-Depression baseline, not the Depression peak, which is a bit of a communication fumble but understandable given the casual context. The broader point (system was vulnerable, collapse was massive) is spot-on.</p> <hr /> <p>🟡 <strong>Iran protest casualties (January 2026)</strong></p> <p>Dan said Iran "just murdered 30,000 protesters effectively" in January. The actual figures vary: state media reported 3,117 deaths, but multiple human rights organizations estimate between 6,000–36,500 depending on the source and counting methodology. Iran International reported over 36,500 killed; HRANA as of early February confirmed 7,015 deaths. Dan's number of 30,000 is within the range of credible estimates from independent sources (Reuters, The Guardian, Iran International reported 30,000-36,500), but it's on the higher end of the confirmed figures. We'll give him credit for citing credible estimates, but note that verification remains difficult due to Iran's internet shutdown.</p> <hr /> <p>🟢 <strong>Refinery shutdown cascade logic</strong></p> <p>Sean's explanation of how shutting down a refinery creates a cascading problem—pumps emptying out, needing repriming in sequence, catalysts getting damaged if the wrong substance flows through, taking weeks to restart—is textbook correct. He backed this up with his personal experience working in a refinery for two years. This is solid technical knowledge. No notes.</p> <hr /> <p>Final Score: 4 green, 2 yellow, 0 red</p> <p>Pretty strong week for two guys riffing on a complex week in geopolitics, energy, and history. We got the core dynamics right — supply chain vulnerability, strategic concentration, cascading effects — and even our historical references landed. That's how this works.</p> <hr /> <h2 data-heading="Chapters">Chapters</h2> <ul> <li>00:00 — Cold Open: Market Check-In</li> <li>01:11 — The Strait of Hormuz Crisis</li> <li>03:19 — Oil Supply, Refinery Shutdowns, and the Pump Analogy</li> <li>05:02 — Global Oil and Energy Systems</li> <li>07:00 — Manufacturing & Dubai Disruption</li> <li>09:22 — Helium: The Silent Supply Chokepoint</li> <li>10:38 — Helium & Chip Manufacturing (The Chain Reaction)</li> <li>12:45 — SpaceX's Helium-Free Innovation</li> <li>14:50 — Lack of Planning: The Toy in the Dark</li> <li>16:02 — Venezuelan, Iranian, and Compute Dependencies</li> <li>17:00 — Data Center Strikes & Kinetic Warfare</li> <li>19:02 — Dune as Allegory</li> <li>31:05 — The 1929 Bubble: Radio, Aeronautics, and RCA</li> <li>34:18 — Margin Trading and Mass Speculation (Then vs. Now)</li> <li>36:29 — Bank Failures in the Great Depression</li> <li>37:03 — Why 2008 Might Be the Template</li> <li>38:45 — Psychology of Generations (WWI, 1918 Flu, Prohibition)</li> <li>40:14 — Financial Nihilism and the Housing Crisis</li> <li>42:00 — The Housing Deregulation Fight (Schatz vs. Warren)</li> <li>44:32 — Both Sides, Asset Prices, and the Boomer Problem</li> <li>46:35 — Trump's Deregulation Executive Order</li> <li>49:45 — California's Property Tax Lock-In (Prop 13)</li> <li>53:00 — Estate Taxes, Inheritance, and Forced Liquidation</li> <li>54:00 — Housing Supply vs. Political Solutions</li> <li>56:59 — Adam Grant's Givers, Matchers, and Takers</li> <li>58:00 — The Economics of Power</li> <li>59:00 — Logical Thinking and Predictable Outcomes</li> <li>1:02:37 — Iran's Path Forward (Dan's Optimism)</li> <li>1:04:00 — Closing: Wrapping the Conversation</li> </ul>
Hallucinations are Creativity
Mar 15, 2026
<h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Hello dear show notes readers!</h2> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> This week Dan and I tackle a question that's been bugging both of us since Christmas: what if hallucinations—those supposedly broken outputs that make AI unreliable—are actually just creativity in disguise? It's the kind of reframe that changes how you work with these systems entirely. I open with my custom scheduling system that beats a $4 billion ERP, and from there we tumble into the deep end of practical AI deployment, architectural thinking, and the future of work itself.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We dig into what Dan calls the "recursive loop"—the idea that you don't have to trust AI's first output. Instead, you throw it back at the system five times with different lenses: "Check this section. Now verify this assumption. Now fact-check the whole thing." By the time you've cycled through, the hallucinations have been wrung out and you've got something real. This is less about building perfect AI and more about building a partnership with a system that <em>wants</em> to help you.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Then we dig into OpenClaw and Dan's autonomous agent running on a spare machine that's basically become his personal coach, business analyst, and productivity engine. It manages his daily revenue reports, trades ideas, emails, nutrition tracking, and evening reflections. And here's the thing: it's not magic. It's just someone asking good questions and building the right file structure (claude.md, memory.md, context.md) to help the agent remember what matters.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We also touch on the 100X engineer (who's also product, marketing, and engineering), Google's antitrust handcuffs, why three machines is becoming normal again, and Sean's philosophy that you should want your employees to automate themselves into better work. There's real anxiety about displacement here, but also genuine excitement about what opens up when you're freed from the paper cuts of your day.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> This episode is technical and it gets into the weeds, but it's also about how a slight shift in thinking can make you exponentially more capable. If you've been curious about using AI beyond "ask it a question," this one's for you.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Cheers, Sean</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Books Discussed</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Giver"><em>The Giver</em></a> by <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.loislowry.com">Lois Lowry</a></li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surely_You%27re_Joking,_Mr._Feynman!"> <em>Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!</em></a> by <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman">Richard Feynman</a></li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Shows/Films Discussed</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt29755372/"><em>Pluribus</em></a> — Vince Gilligan's hive-mind science fiction series on Apple TV</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12623084/"><em>Fallout</em></a> — Amazon Prime video game adaptation, Season 2</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Tools & Platforms Mentioned</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Claude</strong> (Anthropic) — AI assistant and reasoning engine</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Claude Code</strong> — Anthropic's code-oriented interface with file system access</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>OpenClaw</strong> (formerly Cloudbot, then Moltbot) — Open-source autonomous agent framework</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Lanes</strong> — Dan's custom OpenClaw agent instance</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Playwright</strong> — Browser automation tool for AI-driven web interaction</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Telegram</strong> — Messaging platform for agent communication</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>iMessage</strong> — Apple's messaging system for agent integration</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Brave Search API</strong> — Search API accessed by agents</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>Obsidian</strong> — Markdown editor and knowledge management</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Zed</strong> — IDE with AI agent integration</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>One Password / Dashlane</strong> — Password managers (discussed for potential AI integration)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><strong>Whole Foods</strong> — Mentioned as automation target for grocery ordering</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Companies Discussed</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Anthropic</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">OpenAI</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Google</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Twitter/X</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Apple</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Meta</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Whole Foods</li> </ul> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Links & References</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://www.anthropic.com">Anthropic</a> — Claude's maker</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://openai.com">OpenAI</a> — ChatGPT, GPT models</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://github.com/anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python">Claude Code CLI</a> — Anthropic's command-line interface for extended file operations</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://api.search.brave.com/">Brave Search API</a> — Search integration for autonomous agents</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://playwright.dev/">Playwright</a> — Browser automation framework</li> </ul> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h2> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <em>Per Sean's in-episode request at 13:14 — this week's fact-check is written in the style of Charles Bukowski. You asked for it.</em></p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> look, they said some things. most people do. the difference is these two actually meant some of it.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 = nailed it | 🟡 = close enough | 🔴 = whiffed it</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Twitter laid off about 90% of staff</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Dan said Twitter got rid of 90% of all staff and they did fine. and he's right, more or less. Musk walked in and fired somewhere between 80 and 90 percent of the building. the tweets kept tweeting. the servers kept serving. whether "fine" is the right word depends on how you feel about the place now, but the lights stayed on. that part's true. sometimes the bar stays open even after you fire the bartender.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Google's 20% Time</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Sean said Google had 20% time on Fridays for a long time. they did. one day a week, go build whatever you want. Gmail came out of that. Google News too. it was the kind of policy that made you think maybe corporations had souls. they quietly killed it, of course. but for a while there, Fridays meant something.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Temperature controls randomness/creativity in LLMs</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Dan said you crank the temperature up for stories and down for code. he's right. temperature is the knob between chaos and precision. turn it up and the machine starts to dream. turn it down and it becomes an accountant. most of us live somewhere in the middle, but nobody writes poems about the middle.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>The Giver plot summary</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Dan described a society where knowledge was compartmentalized, one old man carrying the weight of every memory so nobody else had to feel anything. that's Lois Lowry's book, more or less. Dan said he wasn't close enough to it anymore to remember the whole structure. fair enough. most of us aren't close enough to anything anymore. the analogy landed. the details were soft around the edges. partial credit, which is what life mostly is.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>ERP limitations on custom scheduling</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Dan said their $4 billion ERP couldn't handle their scheduling because the process had nuances that sat just outside what the system could do. anyone who's ever worked inside a corporation just nodded. you spend the GDP of a small country on software and it still can't do the one thing you actually need it to do. that's not a claim that needs verification. that's just Tuesday.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Google's antitrust exposure constrained their AI moves</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Sean said Google had to wait for OpenAI to enter AI search before Google could go there, because moving first would look like leveraging their search monopoly into an adjacent market. he was working it out on the fly and even said "I'm gonna scrub this from the record." but the instinct was right. the legal concept is called monopoly leveraging— using dominance in one market to foreclose competition in another. Section 2 of the Sherman Act. the FTC's tying doctrine. real stuff. there's no specific ruling that says "Google must wait for a competitor to go first," but in August 2024 a federal court found Google maintained an illegal monopoly in search, and the September 2025 remedies banned their exclusive distribution deals for Search, Chrome, and Gemini. so yeah—Google's legal team absolutely would have known that charging into AI search unprovoked was handing the DOJ another exhibit. sometimes the smartest move a monopolist can make is to let somebody else walk through the door first. Sean got there. he just didn't trust himself enough to leave it in.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Final Score: 5 green, 1 yellow, 0 red</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> not bad for two guys talking into microphones about machines that dream. the facts held up. the stories were better. that's usually how it goes with the good ones.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h2 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold"> Chapters</h2> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>00:00</strong> - Good Morning: Preshow Chat and Super Bowl Logistics</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>03:00</strong> - TV Talk: Pluribus and Fallout (A Collective Consciousness Thought Experiment)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>10:00</strong> - The AI Show Notes Pipeline: Integrating Claude into Workflow</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>12:00</strong> - From Chat to System: Claude, Codex, and Skeleton Architecture</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>15:00</strong> - Recursive Loops: The Path to AI Reliability</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>17:00</strong> - Hallucinations as Creativity: The Core Reframe</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>20:00</strong> - File-Based Prompting: Building Sustainable Agent Collaboration</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>23:00</strong> - Building in Public: Dan's Custom Scheduling System</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>25:00</strong> - The Paradigm Shift: Why People Avoid AI (and Why They Shouldn't)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>27:00</strong> - The Tool vs. The Black Box: Understanding LLM Temperature and Trade-offs</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>30:00</strong> - Machines with Eighteen Levers: Literacy and Enablement</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>32:00</strong> - The Teaching Gap: Feynman's Principle and Deep Knowledge</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>34:00</strong> - OpenClaw (Lanes): A Practical Autonomous Agent</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>40:00</strong> - Building Agents: APIs, File Systems, and Interfaces</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>44:00</strong> - Messaging Platforms and Integration: Telegram vs. iMessage</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>46:00</strong> - A Day in the Life of Lanes: Business Reporting, Trading, Nutrition, Reflection</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>50:00</strong> - Email Automation and Google's Market Strategy</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>52:00</strong> - Antitrust Constraints on AI Innovation</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>53:00</strong> - The 100X Engineer and Workforce Transformation</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>56:00</strong> - Downtime, Automation, and Intentional Inefficiency</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>58:00</strong> - Hiring for the AI Era: Agents, Iteration, and Multiplication</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>59:00</strong> - Creativity Unleashed: The Human Upside</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>01:00:00</strong> - From One Computer to Three: The New Reality</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>01:02:00</strong> - Practical Setup: Using Old Macs, Voice Commands, and Persistence</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"> <strong>01:04:00</strong> - Questions as Your Guiding Light</li> </ul>
Be Viciously Mediocre or... Get the F**** After It!
Feb 16, 2026
<p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> This week on Unqualified Advice, the energy was all over the place — and we kind of loved it. Dan opens with a Jeremy Piven mantra about getting the f*** after it, and it turns out that's basically the thesis for the whole hour.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We start in the Fourth Turning framework — Dan's been refining his theory that the turn itself has happened, and now we're watching the energies release into velocities that'll shape the new order. Heavy stuff, but it clicked for both of us this time around. From there we land on ICE enforcement, and Dan delivers what might be the sharpest framing we've had: you've hired ideological agents rather than rule-of-law agents. That sent us into Stasi territory, Ceaușescu's Romania, and a real question about whether a preference cascade is finally building.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We take a breather with book talk (Dan's halfway through <em>The Sympathizer</em> and I'm looking for my next read), TV talk (<em>Pluribus</em> on Apple TV is a wild hive-mind premise from Vince Gilligan), and adventure talk (Alex Honnold free-climbed Taipei 101 and Dan once ran up it via stairs in 18 minutes). Dan tells a great Annapurna Base Camp story and we both agree that nothing makes you as hungry as altitude.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Then it gets philosophical. We dig into AI and the next generation — Dan's fish-and-water analogy for kids growing up with these tools is going to stick with me. We talk about the failure to teach civics, the need to choose processes over outcomes, and why "mind coughing" (not mind comping) your ideas onto others is how change actually spreads. Mimetics, baby.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> The back half is a deep dive on generational power: Boomers hold 60 Senate seats despite being 24% of the population, three presidents were born in 1946, and a viral tweet about the $6K senior tax bonus captures the frustration perfectly. Sean calls nostalgia the most toxic of emotions; Dan says it's not even dirty fuel you can burn. We wrap with a conversation about AI deepfakes eroding trust, the printing press as a turning catalyst, and a close we're pretty proud of: go build something this week.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Cheers,</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Sean</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <h3 class="text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold"> Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</h3> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We said some things. Here's how we did.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty</strong> Dan said "Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty." The 1951 agreement is a US-Denmark defense agreement that gave the US basing rights in Greenland (Thule Air Base). It is not a transfer of sovereignty. Greenland remains a Danish autonomous territory. The defense logic Dan cited is real — Greenland is strategically critical for US missile defense — but "ours" is a significant overstatement of what the treaty actually says.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 <strong>Three presidents born in 1946: Clinton, Bush, Trump</strong> Sean said three presidents were all born in 1946. Confirmed. Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946), George W. Bush (July 6, 1946), and Donald Trump (June 14, 1946) were all born the same year — the first year of the Baby Boom.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>Boomers hold 60 Senate seats / ~24% of population</strong> Sean looked this up live using AI during the show and cited 60 seats and 20–24% of the population. Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964) make up roughly 21–23% of the US population as of 2025. The 60-seat Senate figure is plausible for the 119th Congress but would benefit from verification against the latest roster, as retirements and special elections shift the count. The 3X overrepresentation point stands either way.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>Taipei 101 climb took an hour and a half</strong> Dan said it took Honnold "an hour and a half to scale the outside." This should be verified against reporting. Dan's own stair run took 18 minutes, which he contrasts with the free-climb time. The broad point about it being a long, grueling ascent is reasonable.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>Mt. Elbert is the tallest 14-er in Colorado</strong> Dan called it "Mount Albert" but clearly means Mt. Elbert (14,440 ft), which is indeed the highest peak in Colorado and the tallest 14-er in the Rockies. Sean catches the name in the transcript. The substance is correct; the name is garbled.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟡 <strong>20–30% of New England heat from garbage and wood</strong> Sean attributed this stat to Javier Blas on Bloomberg. The general claim that New England has an unusually high reliance on heating oil, wood, and waste-to-energy relative to the rest of the US is well-documented. The specific 20–30% figure for garbage and wood during a cold snap should be verified against the actual Bloomberg data. Sean did note it was from a credible source and flagged his own uncertainty on details.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Final Score: 1 green, 5 yellow, 0 red</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it.</p>
Welcome to Flow City
Feb 9, 2026
<h1 class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.375rem] font-bold"> Welcome to Flow City</h1> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> This week on Unqualified Advice, Dan's been writing again. His latest Prometheus Dispatch essay on pseudo events — manufactured moments designed to create energy rather than report on it — kicks us off and leads to a conversation neither of us expected. We start with Kennedy-Nixon, swing through Greenland headlines, and land squarely on California's proposed billionaire tax, which turns out to be a far more interesting topic than the name suggests.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> We break it down: who it actually targets (~200 people), why the name "billionaire tax" is doing a lot of political heavy lifting, how it could trigger down rounds across Silicon Valley, and what happens when capital decides it's had enough. Venezuela and North Korea show up as cautionary tales. As they do.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> The big question we kept circling back to: are we entering a decade of flow or a decade of friction? We landed on a framework we're pretty proud of — expect the world to run more like Sun Tzu, but navigate it personally with Lao Tzu and Wu Wei. Dan calls it realpolitik meets riding the wave, which honestly might be the whole show in six words.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Along the way, we get into why Texas quietly builds more green energy than anyone (narrative violation alert), why EVs got politicized instead of just adopted, when BYD might change everything, and why the best answer Dan ever learned at Columbia Business School was "it depends."</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-pre-wrap leading-[1.7]"> Cheers, Sean</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Books Discussed:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Image</em> by Daniel Boorstin</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>Private Truths, Public Lies</em> by Timur Kuran</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>What's Our Problem?</em> by Tim Urban</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Art of War</em> by Sun Tzu</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>Tao Te Ching</em> by Lao Tzu</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Art of the Deal</em> by Donald Trump</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Prince</em> by Machiavelli</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">"Flack" Substack by Lulu Cheng Meservey</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Companies Discussed:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Tesla</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">BYD</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Huawei</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Ford</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Cargill</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Polymarket</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Kalshi</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Links & References:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Dan's Prometheus Dispatch: prometheusdispatch.com</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Lulu Cheng Meservey's "Flack" Substack: getflack.com</li> </ul> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <em>We said some things. Here's how we did.</em></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟢 90% healthcare / 10% education split on the California billionaire tax</strong> Sean said 90% goes to healthcare and 10% to education and food assistance. That's essentially correct. The actual text allocates 90% to healthcare and 10% to K-12 education, with some language around food assistance as well. Score one for Sean.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟢 ~200 people affected</strong> Sean said the tax would impact about 200–300 people. Multiple sources (CalMatters, CBS News, SF Standard) consistently cite approximately 200–255 California billionaires. Right in the zone.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟡 Prediction market odds: ~65% on ballot, ~40% to pass</strong> Sean cited roughly 65% odds of making the ballot and 40% of passing. Current Polymarket has the "on ballot" market at about 59–60%, and the "passes" market at 37–40% (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket ~30–40% range). His "pass" number was spot on. The "on ballot" number was a touch high but in the ballpark. We'll give him a yellow.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟡 Trump's 2016 odds were "in the 30s"</strong> Dan said Trump's prediction market odds in 2016 were "in the 30s." PredictIt had Clinton at 80–82% on election night, meaning Trump was at 18–20%. FiveThirtyEight's model had Trump at about 29%. So depending on which source you pick, Trump was somewhere between 18–29% — more like the teens-to-high-twenties than the thirties. Close-ish. We'll give it a yellow for the 538 number being 29%.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟡 8 million Venezuelans have fled</strong> Sean said "8 million people, I believe, from Venezuela that have fled the country" and then wondered if that was just in the US. The real number: approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide (per UNHCR). Only about 770,000 are in the United States. The 8 million worldwide number is right; attributing it to the US would be way off. Sean did flag his uncertainty, so partial credit.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟢 Texas leads the nation in green/renewable energy</strong> Sean stated Texas is the leader in green energy nationwide. This is confirmed and then some. Texas generated 169,442 GWh from wind and solar in 2024 — nearly double California's 92,316 GWh. Texas leads in wind, is #1 or #2 in solar depending on the metric, and has been the national renewable energy leader for over a decade. Narrative violation confirmed.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟡 EV sales peaked in 2023 and are "down about 10% from peak"</strong> Sean said EV sales kind of peaked in 2023 and are down roughly 10%. Tesla sales specifically peaked in 2023 and have declined since. But total US EV sales actually grew 7%+ in 2024 to a record ~1.3 million units, then dipped about 2% in 2025 to ~1.275 million. So total EVs haven't really dropped 10% from peak — it's more like 2%. Tesla's decline is steeper. The direction is right but the magnitude is overstated.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟡 Dan's home state Colorado has "60% coal" for electricity</strong> Dan said "we have 60% coal" for his electricity in Colorado. Here's the thing — he was right about a decade ago. Colorado's coal-fired generation was indeed at 60% in 2014. But it's dropped fast: down to 33% in 2023 and just 27–28% in 2024. Wind now provides 30% of Colorado's electricity, and renewables overall hit 43% in 2024. Dan's number is outdated by about 10 years, but he wasn't making it up — at least the number existed in recent memory.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🔴 James Garfield: "1864ish, 1863"</strong> Sean dated James Garfield to the 1860s. Garfield was nominated in 1880, inaugurated in 1881, and assassinated in 1881. Off by almost two decades. However, Sean's story about <em>how</em> Garfield became president is largely accurate and actually undersells it: Garfield went to the convention as a congressman to nominate someone else (John Sherman), gave a nominating speech so powerful that after 36 ballots of deadlock, the delegates chose <em>him</em> instead. He was then shot by a deranged office-seeker four months into his presidency. Great story, wrong decade.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>🟢 Garfield was a congressman who gave a great speech and became president</strong> Despite the date being off, the substance of Sean's Garfield story checks out. Garfield was indeed a congressman (actually an 8-term congressman), he delivered a speech at a contested convention that turned the crowd in his favor, and after 36 ballots he was nominated as a dark horse. Then assassinated. All accurate.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>BONUS ID:</strong> Dan couldn't remember the name of "The Flack" Substack author — said "Treverney something" with a hyphenated last name. The person he's describing is <strong>Lulu Cheng Meservey</strong>, who writes the Substack called "Flack" (at getflack.com) and coined the "go direct" communications movement.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Final Score: 4 green, 5 yellow, 1 red</strong></p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <em>Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it.</em></p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Chapters</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">00:00 – Intro</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">01:22 – Dan's Prometheus Dispatch & the Art of Not Assuming</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">03:38 – Pseudo Events: From Kennedy-Nixon to Today</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">05:26 – Greenland, Geopolitics & the Art of the Deal</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">06:31 – California's Billionaire Tax: What's Really at Stake</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">11:20 – The Naming Battle: Why "Billionaire Tax" Is Dangerous Framing</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">12:40 – Down Rounds, Capital Flight & Unintended Consequences</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">17:11 – Venezuela & North Korea: The Long Game of Systems</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">22:02 – Stated vs. Revealed Preferences: Texas Builds More Green Energy</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">23:55 – A Decade of Flow or a Decade of Friction?</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">26:53 – BYD, Huawei & the Future of EVs in North America</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">33:19 – The Kano Model & EV Adoption S-Curves</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">36:29 – Realpolitik and the Preference Cascade Goes Global</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">41:31 – Ride the Wave: Sun Tzu Meets Lao Tzu</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">44:50 – "It Depends" — The Most Defeating Answer</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">49:14 – Fed Independence Tease & Closing</li> </ul>
Riches in the Niches
Jan 26, 2026
<p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> Dan and Sean kick off 2026 with a look back at their 2025 predictions—what hit, what missed, and what's carrying over into the new year. From government shutdowns to Big Tech dominance to the DEI pendulum swing, they grade their calls before diving into what's ahead.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> The big theme for 2026? Geopolitics. With power shifting in Venezuela, potential regime change in Iran, and Trump making noise about Cuba, the hosts break down their "cold Fourth Turning" thesis—consequential global realignment without World War-scale conflict.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> On AI, they push back on the "hype bubble bursting" narrative with real examples of transformative use (including Dan having Claude work on projects while he slept). They also dig into economic policy critique, the resilience of the American economy despite central planning missteps, and why they're cautiously bullish on 2026.</p> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Key Topics:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">2025 predictions scorecard</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Geopolitics as the defining story of 2026</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Taiwan's slow-motion transition (the Hong Kong playbook)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">AI: public perception vs. actual capability</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Aggregation theory and ecosystem opportunities</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Economic outlook: muddling through despite bad policy</li> </ul> <p class= "font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"> <strong>Links & References:</strong></p> <ul class= "[li_&]:mb-0 [li_&]:mt-1 [li_&]:gap-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a href= "https://stratechery.com/aggregation-theory/">Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory</a>: stratechery.com</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Road to Serfdom</em> by Friedrich Hayek (and the <a href= "https://cdn.mises.org/Road%20to%20Serfdom%20in%20Cartoons.pdf">1940s cartoon adaptation</a>)</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><em>The Fourth Turning</em> by Strauss & Howe</li> <li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a href= "https://www.bls.gov/jlt/">JOLTS Data: Bureau of Labor Statistic</a></li> </ul>
Panda Diplomacy
Jan 6, 2026
<p data-start="349" data-end="511">What starts as a travel recap turns into a wide-ranging conversation about manufacturing, geopolitics, surveillance, and the quiet signals of national confidence.</p> <p data-start="513" data-end="897">Sean is back stateside after several weeks in China and Japan, where he was auditing suppliers and rethinking what tariffs, supply chains, and "reshoring" actually look like on the ground. From panda diplomacy and traffic that "flows like water," to EV adoption, special economic zones, and cashless surveillance states, the conversation moves quickly from observation to implication.</p> <p data-start="899" data-end="1181">Along the way, Dan and Sean explore why China's manufacturing base keeps getting stronger even as the U.S. talks about bringing jobs home, how switching costs quietly drive de-industrialization, and why blocking progress at every turn may be the most expensive policy choice of all.</p> <p data-start="1183" data-end="1463">The discussion expands outward—touching on AI, misinformation, drone warfare, Taiwan, chips, and why history often feels utopian only in retrospect. If Rome, Athens, or Florence were messy while they were happening, maybe that's the real lesson: we're living in history right now.</p> <p data-start="1465" data-end="1596"><strong data-start="1465" data-end="1563">Pandas, it turns out, make excellent diplomats. They're calm, patient, and impossible to rush.</strong> Maybe there's something in that.</p> <p data-start="1465" data-end="1596"> </p> <h3 data-start="1603" data-end="1621">Topics covered</h3> <ul data-start="1622" data-end="2176"> <li data-start="1622" data-end="1678"> <p data-start="1624" data-end="1678">What supply chain audits in China actually look like</p> </li> <li data-start="1679" data-end="1741"> <p data-start="1681" data-end="1741">Tariffs, switching costs, and why April changed everything</p> </li> <li data-start="1742" data-end="1801"> <p data-start="1744" data-end="1801">EV adoption, license plate incentives, and urban policy</p> </li> <li data-start="1802" data-end="1850"> <p data-start="1804" data-end="1850">Special economic zones as policy experiments</p> </li> <li data-start="1851" data-end="1903"> <p data-start="1853" data-end="1903">Cashless convenience vs centralized surveillance</p> </li> <li data-start="1904" data-end="1973"> <p data-start="1906" data-end="1973">AI translation, misinformation, and "the only way out is through"</p> </li> <li data-start="1974" data-end="2031"> <p data-start="1976" data-end="2031">Drone warfare, Taiwan, and fragile chip supply chains</p> </li> <li data-start="2032" data-end="2092"> <p data-start="2034" data-end="2092">Civic pride, cleanliness, and the tragedy of the commons</p> </li> <li data-start="2093" data-end="2147"> <p data-start="2095" data-end="2147">Why America struggles to build—and what that costs</p> </li> <li data-start="2148" data-end="2176"> <p data-start="2150" data-end="2176">Rome wasn't utopian either</p> </li> </ul>
I Guess We Doin Cooperation Now
Aug 20, 2025
<p data-start="125" data-end="396">After an unintended "summer break" that didn't feel much like one, Dan and Sean are back at the mics. This episode ranges from the personal to the global: burnout, survivor's guilt, therapy culture, and the constant tug-of-war between staying informed and staying sane.</p> <p data-start="398" data-end="702">On the business and economics front, they dive into tariffs, reshoring, and whether Intel should be nationalized. From semiconductor foundries to data center booms, robots that work for $5 an hour, and the inevitability of bubbles, the conversation traces how global systems reconfigure under pressure.</p> <p data-start="704" data-end="1061">Books and ideas also surface: Abigail Shrier's <em data-start="751" data-end="764">Bad Therapy</em>, Lanny Bassham's <em data-start="782" data-end= "804">With Winning in Mind</em>, Robert Anton Wilson's <em data-start="828" data-end="847">Prometheus Rising</em>, and Hans Rosling's <em data-start="868" data-end= "881">Factfulness</em>. The through-line? How to balance inner chatter, community, and coping strategies in a time when, as Dan puts it, "we are moving from an age of thinking into an age of feeling."</p> <p data-start="1063" data-end="1079">Along the way:</p> <ul data-start="1080" data-end="1383"> <li data-start="1080" data-end="1127"> <p data-start="1082" data-end="1127">Why over-therapy might be counterproductive</p> </li> <li data-start="1128" data-end="1197"> <p data-start="1130" data-end="1197">Gen Z and the "lost rites of passage" (driving, dating, drinking)</p> </li> <li data-start="1198" data-end="1258"> <p data-start="1200" data-end="1258">Corn subsidies, Eli Lilly, and the high-fructose dilemma</p> </li> <li data-start="1259" data-end="1320"> <p data-start="1261" data-end="1320">What Clarkson's Farm gets right (and wrong) about farming</p> </li> <li data-start="1321" data-end="1383"> <p data-start="1323" data-end="1383">How cultural norms shape family, community, and loneliness</p> </li> </ul> <p data-start="1385" data-end="1545">It's part catch-up, part forecast, and part reckoning — a reminder that sometimes the best strategy is just to "keep your head above water and ride the wave."</p>
Oikos and Nomos: What Is the Economy, Really?
Jun 2, 2025
<p data-start="195" data-end="626">This week, Dan and Sean dive into the deep end of economic uncertainty—from the philosophical origins of "the economy" to the lived reality of layoffs, inflation, and shifting trade routes. Why do oil rigs in North Dakota matter to the price of cheese? Are we witnessing demand destruction or just another panic? And what does "creative destruction" really look like when the grenades are turning into landmines?</p> <p data-start="628" data-end="741">Along the way: internal combustion nerdery, fourth turning fatigue, and a fair bit of macroeconomic exasperation.</p> <p data-start="743" data-end="948">If you're feeling off-balance in today's economy, you're not alone. We're all just trying to stay afloat in choppy waters—and sometimes the best you can do is keep your head up and wait for the next swell.</p> <p data-start="2102" data-end="2124"><strong data-start="2102" data-end="2122">Books Discussed:</strong></p> <ul data-start="2125" data-end="2405"> <li data-start="2125" data-end="2162"> <p data-start="2127" data-end="2162"><em data-start="2127" data-end="2145">In This Economy?</em> – Kyla Scanlon</p> </li> <li data-start="2163" data-end="2211"> <p data-start="2165" data-end="2211"><em data-start="2165" data-end="2186">A Splendid Exchange</em> – William J. Bernstein</p> </li> <li data-start="2212" data-end="2259"> <p data-start="2214" data-end="2259"><em data-start="2214" data-end="2242">Amusing Ourselves to Death</em> – Neil Postman</p> </li> <li data-start="2260" data-end="2316"> <p data-start="2262" data-end="2316"><em data-start="2262" data-end="2282">The Fourth Turning</em> – William Strauss and Neil Howe</p> </li> <li data-start="2317" data-end="2348"> <p data-start="2319" data-end="2348"><em data-start="2319" data-end="2330">The Siege</em> – Ben Macintyre</p> </li> <li data-start="2349" data-end="2405"> <p data-start="2351" data-end="2405"><em data-start="2351" data-end="2367">The Fifth Risk</em> (and a new companion) – Michael Lewis</p> </li> </ul> <p data-start="2407" data-end="2433"><strong data-start="2407" data-end="2431">Podcasts Referenced:</strong></p> <ul data-start="2434" data-end="2560"> <li data-start="2434" data-end="2448"> <p data-start="2436" data-end="2448"><em data-start="2436" data-end="2446">Odd Lots</em></p> </li> <li data-start="2449" data-end="2530"> <p data-start="2451" data-end="2530"><em data-start="2451" data-end="2466">Hidden Forces</em> (Grant Williams + Demetri Kofinas – <em data-start="2503" data-end="2527">The Hundred Year Pivot</em>)</p> </li> <li data-start="2531" data-end="2560"> <p data-start="2533" data-end="2560"><em data-start="2533" data-end="2546">The Fed Guy</em> (Joseph Wang)</p> </li> </ul> <p data-start="2567" data-end="2667"><strong data-start="2567" data-end="2589">Quote of the Week:</strong><br data-start="2589" data-end="2592" /> <em data-start="2592" data-end="2667">"They're not grenades anymore—they're landmines we've set for ourselves."</em></p> <p data-start="2567" data-end="2667"><strong data-start="955" data-end="970">Chapters:</strong><em data-start="2592" data-end= "2667"><br data-start="970" data-end="973" /> 00:00 – Weekend work and the managerial grind<br data-start="1018" data-end="1021" /> 01:00 – Oilfield layoffs and sour vs. sweet crude<br data-start= "1070" data-end="1073" /> 04:00 – Why internal combustion is still the apex of engineering<br data-start="1137" data-end="1140" /> 06:00 – What does "economy" actually mean? (spoiler: it's Greek)<br data-start="1204" data-end="1207" /> 10:00 – Sheep barons, trade routes, and the roots of specialization<br data-start="1274" data-end="1277" /> 14:00 – Consumer sentiment vs. reality: is the mismatch getting worse?<br data-start="1347" data-end="1350" /> 18:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the risk of stagflation<br data-start="1405" data-end="1408" /> 24:00 – Layoffs, rate cuts, and the Fed's boxed-in dilemma<br data-start="1466" data-end="1469" /> 30:00 – Budget gaps, fake fixes, and the math that doesn't math<br data-start="1532" data-end="1535" /> 34:00 – The future of global trade (with or without us)<br data-start="1590" data-end="1593" /> 39:00 – Will the Fed move fast enough—or too late again?<br data-start="1649" data-end="1652" /> 45:00 – NIH cuts and the role of scientific "waste"<br data-start= "1703" data-end="1706" /> 51:00 – A fresh read from Michael Lewis + other book recs<br data-start="1763" data-end="1766" /> 56:00 – The fourth turning isn't over: the ecpyrosis continues<br data-start="1828" data-end="1831" /> 59:00 – Swimming, surfing, or just floating through it all<br data-start="1889" data-end="1892" /> 1:04:00 – Walmart's margins and the myth of "just eating" tariffs<br data-start="1957" data-end="1960" /> 1:10:00 – Median income, optionality, and the meaning of wealth<br data-start="2023" data-end="2026" /> 1:13:00 – Outro: shifting sands and the promise (or threat) of change</em></p>
Calling All Mental Nomads
May 11, 2025
<p class="" data-start="183" data-end="559">Dan and Sean return to the mic with a message for the wanderers, the misfits, and the intellectually restless. This episode explores what it means to seek challenge instead of comfort, to embrace unfinished thoughts, and to carve out space for messy, real-time reflection. If you've ever felt like a mental nomad—curious but unrooted—this one's for you.</p> <p class="" data-start="561" data-end="580"><strong data-start= "561" data-end="580">Topics Covered:</strong></p> <ul data-start="581" data-end="849"> <li class="" data-start="581" data-end="625"> <p class="" data-start="583" data-end="625">Why we sometimes feel allergic to routines</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="626" data-end="671"> <p class="" data-start="628" data-end="671">The surprising difficulty of "simple" goals</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="672" data-end="728"> <p class="" data-start="674" data-end="728">Building the room when you don't fit the ones you find</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="729" data-end="777"> <p class="" data-start="731" data-end="777">Podcasting as an act of unscripted exploration</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="778" data-end="849"> <p class="" data-start="780" data-end="849">The value of talking through your thoughts before they're fully baked</p> </li> </ul>
The Buyer's Market is Real (and Zillow is the Worst)
Apr 27, 2025
<p>Hello show notes readers!</p> <p>This week, we're trying something new in our mission to bring you insights from the world of entrepenuership. We're bringing in an outside expert to exlpore an area of entrepeneurship that some of you may have thought about - real estate!</p> <p class="" data-start="807" data-end="1340">This week, we're joined by Lindsay Howard, broker and entrepreneur, for a deep dive into the real world of real estate — starting a family brokerage, surviving the NAR commission shakeup, why Zillow is the villain nobody asked for, and how the 6% mortgage panic is mostly a memory issue. We also talk through the hidden challenges of working with builders, why every new agent needs a second income stream, and what's really driving the current buyer's market. Plus: the forgotten days of Rolodex MLS listings and 15% mortgage rates.</p> <p class="" data-start="807" data-end="1340">Whether you are thinking about diving into real estate, or just wondering why every third house on your street has a "For Sale" sign, we hope this episode will help give you some new insights. </p> <p class="" data-start="1342" data-end="1532">Thanks for listening to Unqualified Advice. If you're looking for a Houston-area agent — or just want to learn more about Lindsay — visit <a class="" href="http://HowardHomeRealty.com" target="_new" rel="noopener" data-start="1480" data-end="1531">HowardHomeRealty.com</a>.</p>
Say No to Ferrets: The NAFTA Myth and the Dresden Reality
Apr 24, 2025
<h3 class="" data-start="196" data-end="218">🧵 Episode Summary</h3> <p class="" data-start="220" data-end="760">In this episode, Dan and Sean delve into the complexities of tariffs, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, and the philosophical underpinnings of leadership. They challenge conventional narratives around NAFTA, explore the historical impact of events like the bombing of Dresden, and discuss the strategic philosophies of Sun Tzu, Lao Tzu, and Donald Trump. The conversation also touches on the challenges of reshoring manufacturing, the intricacies of global supply chains, and the disparities faced by U.S. sellers on platforms like Amazon.</p> <h3 class="" data-start="767" data-end="795">📚 References & Mentions</h3> <ul data-start="797" data-end="1116"> <li class="" data-start="797" data-end="1022"> <p class="" data-start="799" data-end="809"><strong data-start= "799" data-end="809">Books:</strong></p> <ul data-start="812" data-end="1022"> <li class="" data-start="812" data-end="867"> <p class="" data-start="814" data-end="867"><em data-start="814" data-end="826">The Maniac</em> (historical fiction on John von Neumann)</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="870" data-end="917"> <p class="" data-start="872" data-end="917"><em data-start="872" data-end="893">A Splendid Exchange</em> by William J. Bernstein</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="920" data-end="950"> <p class="" data-start="922" data-end="950"><em data-start="922" data-end="940">The Tao Te Ching</em> – Lao Tzu</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="953" data-end="981"> <p class="" data-start="955" data-end="981"><em data-start="955" data-end="971">The Art of War</em> – Sun Tzu</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="984" data-end="1022"> <p class="" data-start="986" data-end="1022"><em data-start="986" data-end="1007">The Art of the Deal</em> – Donald Trump</p> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="" data-start="984" data-end="1022"> <strong>Substacks:</strong> <ul data-start="797" data-end="1116"> <li class="" data-start="984" data-end="1022"><a href= "https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/market-memo-seeing-the-stag">Market Memo: Seeing the Stag</a> from Citrini Research -</li> </ul> </li> <li class="" data-start="1024" data-end="1116"> <p class="" data-start="1026" data-end="1040"><strong data-start= "1026" data-end="1040">Companies:</strong></p> <ul data-start="1043" data-end="1116"> <li class="" data-start="1043" data-end="1051"> <p class="" data-start="1045" data-end="1051">Amazon</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1054" data-end="1061"> <p class="" data-start="1056" data-end="1061">Apple</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1064" data-end="1075"> <p class="" data-start="1066" data-end="1075">Craftsman</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1078" data-end="1087"> <p class="" data-start="1080" data-end="1087">Chevron</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1090" data-end="1097"> <p class="" data-start="1092" data-end="1097">Exxon</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1100" data-end="1116"> <p class="" data-start="1102" data-end="1116">Unusual Whales</p> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> <h3 class="" data-start="1123" data-end="1148">🕰️ Chapter Breakdown</h3> <ul data-start="1150" data-end="2341"> <li class="" data-start="1150" data-end="1214"> <p class="" data-start="1152" data-end="1214"><strong data-start= "1152" data-end="1161">00:00</strong> – Mustelid Mischief: A Ferret Allegory for Tariffs</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1215" data-end="1278"> <p class="" data-start="1217" data-end="1278"><strong data-start= "1217" data-end="1226">01:18</strong> – Who We Are: Sean and Dan Reintroduce Themselves</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1279" data-end="1327"> <p class="" data-start="1281" data-end="1327"><strong data-start= "1281" data-end="1290">03:03</strong> – Liberation Day and Tariff Mayhem</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1328" data-end="1385"> <p class="" data-start="1330" data-end="1385"><strong data-start= "1330" data-end="1339">06:56</strong> – Options, Whiplash, and Quiet Billionaires</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1386" data-end="1447"> <p class="" data-start="1388" data-end="1447"><strong data-start= "1388" data-end="1397">09:21</strong> – From Bretton Woods to Financialized Fragility</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1448" data-end="1507"> <p class="" data-start="1450" data-end="1507"><strong data-start= "1450" data-end="1459">13:05</strong> – The Myth of NAFTA and Manufacturing Decline</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1508" data-end="1568"> <p class="" data-start="1510" data-end="1568"><strong data-start= "1510" data-end="1519">16:23</strong> – America, Socks, and the Imaginary Labor Army</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1569" data-end="1624"> <p class="" data-start="1571" data-end="1624"><strong data-start= "1571" data-end="1580">19:02</strong> – Merchant Marines and Military Logistics</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1625" data-end="1678"> <p class="" data-start="1627" data-end="1678"><strong data-start= "1627" data-end="1636">24:33</strong> – Deep Supply Chains, Shallow Solutions</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1679" data-end="1730"> <p class="" data-start="1681" data-end="1730"><strong data-start= "1681" data-end="1690">29:19</strong> – Nukes and the Trigger Points of War</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1731" data-end="1781"> <p class="" data-start="1733" data-end="1781"><strong data-start= "1733" data-end="1742">34:03</strong> – The Compound Effects of Complexity</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1782" data-end="1846"> <p class="" data-start="1784" data-end="1846"><strong data-start= "1784" data-end="1793">36:25</strong> – The Tao of Strategy: Sun Tzu, Trump, and Lao Tzu</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1847" data-end="1911"> <p class="" data-start="1849" data-end="1911"><strong data-start= "1849" data-end="1858">44:48</strong> – Governance by Table: Three Philosophies Compared</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1912" data-end="1979"> <p class="" data-start="1914" data-end="1979"><strong data-start= "1914" data-end="1923">48:20</strong> – Amazon's Tilted Playing Field and Ecom Frustrations</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="1980" data-end="2047"> <p class="" data-start="1982" data-end="2047"><strong data-start= "1982" data-end="1991">52:48</strong> – Bezos vs. Jassy: Vision, Risk, and Systems Thinking</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="2048" data-end="2118"> <p class="" data-start="2050" data-end="2118"><strong data-start= "2050" data-end="2059">59:40</strong> – An Economic NATO? Supply Chain Strategy for the Future</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="2119" data-end="2163"> <p class="" data-start="2121" data-end="2163"><strong data-start= "2121" data-end="2132">1:02:07</strong> – Why We Can't Make a Wrench</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="2164" data-end="2233"> <p class="" data-start="2166" data-end="2233"><strong data-start= "2166" data-end="2177">1:10:02</strong> – Corporate Whiplash, Lead Times, and Stainless Steel</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="2234" data-end="2287"> <p class="" data-start="2236" data-end="2287"><strong data-start= "2236" data-end="2247">1:14:14</strong> – The Stock Market Is Not the Economy</p> </li> <li class="" data-start="2288" data-end="2341"> <p class="" data-start="2290" data-end="2341"><strong data-start= "2290" data-end="2301">1:17:21</strong> – Book Recs and Trading as Human Nature</p> </li> </ul>
Don't Be a Numbass
Apr 13, 2025
<p class="" data-start="241" data-end="701">In this episode, Dan and Sean navigate through numbness, nuance, and the uncomfortable edges of modern life. From tariffs and fentanyl policy to the messy mechanics of entrepreneurship, they discuss the complicated reality of staying engaged in a world that often feels overwhelming. Also on deck: what it really means to be an entrepreneur, thoughts on <em data-start="595" data-end="614">Prometheus Rising</em>, unfair competition on Amazon, and a shoutout to 23andMe's vanishing business model.</p> <p class="" data-start="703" data-end="744">Oh, and if you see a quarter, pick it up.</p> <p class="" data-start="746" data-end="1154"><strong data-start= "746" data-end="765">Topics include:</strong><br data-start="765" data-end="768" /> – Volatility and numbness in 2025<br data-start="801" data-end= "804" /> – Dan's new startup idea (inspired by Skype's shutdown)<br data-start="859" data-end="862" /> – Surviving tariffs, uncertainty, and unfair Amazon practices<br data-start="923" data-end="926" /> – Fentanyl and the difference between drug policy and public safety<br data-start="993" data-end="996" /> – Thoughts on <em data-start="1010" data-end="1029" data-is-only-node="">Prometheus Rising</em> and reality tunnels<br data-start="1049" data-end="1052" /> – Survivorship bias, investing parlor games, and the danger of hindsight<br data-start="1124" data-end="1127" /> – Trying not to get drafted</p> <p class="" data-start="1156" data-end="1388"><strong data-start= "1156" data-end="1176">Books discussed:</strong><br data-start= "1176" data-end="1179" /> – <em data-start="1181" data-end="1200">Prometheus Rising</em> by Robert Anton Wilson<br data-start="1223" data-end="1226" /> – <em data-start="1228" data-end="1269">Abduction: Human Encounters with Aliens</em> by John E. Mack<br data-start="1285" data-end= "1288" /> – <em data-start="1290" data-end="1310">The Comfort Crisis</em> by Michael Easter<br data-start="1328" data-end="1331" data-is-only-node="" /> – References to ideas by Jim O'Shaughnessy and Ben Hunt</p>
Manifesting Abundance: The Quarter, The Algorithm, and The Belief
Mar 30, 2025
<p>Hello show notes readers,</p> <p>What is writing? What is art? Did I create this or did a robot and how would you be able to tell the difference? This week we coin the term "adverbious", hoping to prove we aren't robots and also to give you a tool to figure out who the robots are. We can't define it but we know it when we see it, if you know what I mean? </p> <p>Later, we delve into Dan's masterful schedule management as an entrepreneur. Dan explains what it took to get there, what it takes to maintain, and why it is one of the biggest benefits of entrepreneurship. </p> <p>Finally, we get a little woo and explore the work of Robert Anton Wilson. I share some early thoughts from <em>Prometheus Rising</em> and Dan provides some context from other authors. </p> <p>As always, thanks for listening! We welcome your feedback! Find Dan at www.twitter.com/danielhatke or Sean at www.twitter.com/slowvsm.</p> <p> 📚 <strong>Books Discussed</strong></p> <ul> <li><em>Prometheus Rising</em> by Robert Anton Wilson</li> <li><em>The Expectation Effect</em> by David Robson</li> <li><em>Antifragile</em> by Nassim Nicholas Taleb </li> <li><em>Fooled by Randomness</em> by Nassim Nicholas Taleb</li> <li><em>The Black Swan</em> by Nassim Nicholas Taleb</li> </ul>
Crude Realities: The Organization Breathes
Mar 19, 2025
<p data-start="123" data-end="553">Hello show notes readers!</p> <p data-start="123" data-end="553">This week, Sean and Dan look into the rhythms of the oil and gas world — how things speed up, slow down, and sometimes just stop. They talk about <a href= "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-announces-15-20-layoff-global-workforce-source-says-2025-02-12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">layoffs making headlines</a>, how organizations expand and contract like they're breathing, and what it feels like to be on the inside when that happens. Sean explains why fewer rigs don't always mean less oil, and why the people most affected aren't always the ones you'd think.</p> <p data-start="561" data-end="916">They get into how managers try (sometimes awkwardly) to protect and coach people, what it's like to get blindsided, and why being chased by a metaphorical predator might not be all bad — at least for keeping you sharp. The converstion takes a detour into parenting, classrooms, and whether pulling your kid out of tough situations helps or hurts in the long run.</p> <p data-start="924" data-end="1124">Plus: what homeschooling has in common with org charts, why messy code and stuck loops are part of building anything, and a few thoughts on agency, grace, and figuring out when to hold on or let go.</p> <h3 data-start="2181" data-end="2204"><strong data-start="2185" data-end="2204">Books Discussed</strong></h3> <ul data-start="2205" data-end="2518"> <li data-start="2205" data-end="2310"><em data-start="2207" data-end="2226">Prometheus Rising</em> – Robert Anton Wilson; explores consciousness, reality tunnels, and mindset shifts.</li> <li data-start="2311" data-end="2410"><em data-start="2313" data-end="2326">Factfulness</em> – Hans Rosling; emphasizes how the world is improving despite negative perceptions.</li> <li data-start="2411" data-end="2518"><em data-start="2413" data-end="2429">The Fifth Risk</em> – Michael Lewis; highlights essential but overlooked government jobs and inefficiencies.</li> </ul> <h3 data-start="2181" data-end="2204"><strong data-start="2185" data-end="2204">Lectures Referenced</strong></h3> <ul> <li>Neville Goddard: <a href= "https://youtu.be/zXsZnDakDVA">https://youtu.be/zXsZnDakDVA</a></li> </ul> <p> </p> <p> </p> <h3 data-start="3860" data-end="3898"><strong data-start="3864" data-end="3898">Chapters</strong></h3> <p>00:00 - Weather and Cyclicality</p> <p>01:07 - Oil Layoffs & Market Trends</p> <p>02:55 - Why the U.S. Exports Oil</p> <p>06:38 - Fracking & Efficiency Gains</p> <p>07:34 - The Workplace "Breathes"</p> <p>12:47 - The Role of Fear & Agency</p> <p>16:52 - Education & Homeschooling Trends</p> <p>28:38 - AI, Coding, and Debugging Frustrations</p> <p>40:57 - AI Slack Bots for Work Productivity</p> <p>50:43 - <em data-start="4330" data-end="4349">Prometheus Rising</em> & Reality Tunnels</p> <p>55:15 - Telepathy Tapes & The Tower of Babel</p> <p>1:02:00 - Manifestation & The Power of Thought</p> <p>1:06:02 - Government Jobs & Bureaucracy Debates</p> <p>1:17:05 - Wrapping Up: Big Topics & Future Thoughts</p>
The Sovereign Individual: A Book for the 1% (of Readers Who Finish It)
Mar 9, 2025
<p data-start="525" data-end="556">Hello dear show notes reader,</p> <p data-start="558" data-end="657"><em data-start="558" data-end= "594"><strong data-start="559" data-end="593">We're 25 episodes in! Woo hoo!</strong></em> (<em data-start="596" data-end="654">Imagine Leslie Knope. Now read the italicized bit again.</em>)</p> <p data-start="659" data-end="854">As the author of these show notes, I feel like 25 should be a significant number, but I also don't have any valid reason why. Nonetheless, I felt inspired to make these show notes really shine!</p> <p data-start="856" data-end="934"><strong data-start="856" data-end="891">What's good about this episode?</strong><br data-start="891" data-end="894" /> While editing, I had two realizations:</p> <ol data-start="935" data-end="1131"> <li data-start="935" data-end="1024"><strong data-start="938" data-end="981">Dan is a better podcast host than I am.</strong> (I'll deal with that emotionally later.)</li> <li data-start="1025" data-end="1131">This episode's format unintentionally gave me a meta-analysis moment—right here, in these show notes.</li> </ol> <p data-start="1133" data-end="1624">Here's what I mean: we both read long quotes from books we've been chewing on. When one of us shares a quote, we know a follow-up question is coming—something like <em data-start="1297" data-end="1319">"What do you think?"</em> Since we expect it, we listen more actively, <strong data-start="1365" data-end="1403">playing with the idea in real time</strong> instead of waiting for our turn to speak. By the time the sharer is done, the listener is already mentally off to the races, turning the quote over, looking for angles. That made for some <strong data-start="1592" data-end="1622">damn good back-and-forths.</strong></p> <p data-start="1626" data-end="1947"><strong data-start="1626" data-end="1660">What's bad about this episode?</strong><br data-start="1660" data-end="1663" /> The prep work. As you will hear, we listened to the auidobook version of <em>The Sovereign Individual,</em> by Jame Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, and neither of us enjoyed it. But we hope you enjoy our discussion about this slog of a book. </p> <h3 data-start="3807" data-end="3845"> </h3> <h3 data-start="1325" data-end="1348"><strong data-start="1329" data-end="1348">Books Discussed</strong></h3> <ul data-start="1349" data-end="1705"> <li data-start="1349" data-end="1424"><em data-start="1351" data-end="1377">The Sovereign Individual</em> by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg</li> <li data-start="1425" data-end="1482"><em data-start="1427" data-end="1447">The Fourth Turning</em> by William Strauss and Neil Howe</li> <li data-start="1483" data-end="1529"><em data-start="1485" data-end="1504">Prometheus Rising</em> by Robert Anton Wilson</li> <li data-start="1530" data-end="1619"><em data-start="1532" data-end="1550">The Tao Te Ching</em> by Laotzi</li> <li data-start="1620" data-end="1705"><em data-start="1622" data-end="1642">Three-Body Problem</em> by Liu Xicin</li> </ul> <h3 data-start="3807" data-end="3845"> </h3> <h3 data-start="3807" data-end="3845"><strong data-start="3811" data-end="3845">Chapter Titles with Timestamps</strong></h3> <p data-start="3846" data-end="4536"><strong data-start="3846" data-end="3857">[00:00]</strong> <em data-start="3858" data-end= "3897">"Should We Just Move to a Tax Haven?"</em><br data-start= "3897" data-end="3900" /> <strong data-start="3900" data-end="3911">[02:11]</strong> <em data-start="3912" data-end="3951">"Books That Should Have Been Shorter"</em><br data-start="3951" data-end="3954" /> <strong data-start="3954" data-end="3965">[04:33]</strong> <em data-start="3966" data-end="3998">"Did They Predict the Future?"</em><br data-start="3998" data-end="4001" /> <strong data-start="4001" data-end="4012">[06:48]</strong> <em data-start="4013" data-end="4041">"The Doomers Strike Again"</em><br data-start="4041" data-end="4044" /> <strong data-start="4044" data-end="4055">[10:16]</strong> <em data-start="4056" data-end="4114">"Technology Changes Power, but Does It Decentralize It?"</em><br data-start="4114" data-end= "4117" /> <strong data-start="4117" data-end="4128">[17:59]</strong> <em data-start="4129" data-end="4162">"The Cyber Economy That Wasn't"</em><br data-start="4162" data-end="4165" /> <strong data-start="4165" data-end="4176">[24:39]</strong> <em data-start="4177" data-end="4225">"Populism, Power, and the Small Guy's Revenge"</em><br data-start="4225" data-end="4228" /> <strong data-start="4228" data-end="4239">[32:40]</strong> <em data-start="4240" data-end="4311">"Why Build a Few Big Things When You Can Build a Million Small Ones?"</em><br data-start="4311" data-end="4314" /> <strong data-start="4314" data-end="4325">[41:52]</strong> <em data-start="4326" data-end="4352">"Has the Outrage Faded?"</em><br data-start="4352" data-end="4355" /> <strong data-start="4355" data-end="4366">[45:31]</strong> <em data-start="4367" data-end="4410">"Should Governments Pay for Performance?"</em><br data-start="4410" data-end="4413" /> <strong data-start="4413" data-end="4424">[54:11]</strong> <em data-start="4425" data-end="4468" data-is-only-node="">"The Future of Democracy and Its Critics"</em><br data-start="4468" data-end="4471" /> <strong data-start="4471" data-end="4482">[58:39]</strong> <em data-start="4483" data-end="4534">"Loneliness, Power, and the Failure of Community"</em></p>
Overwork, Curiosity, and Sympathy: Technology and Modern Vices
Feb 23, 2025
<p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>In this episode of Unqualified Advice we discuss our recent experiences writing code for building websites and apps with <a href="https://www.cursor.com/en">Cursor</a>. In short, we're having a blast working with these new tools and have a few tips for those just getting started. We've recommended it before, but it's worth repeating <a href= "https://blog.nateliason.com/p/ai-course">Nat Eliason's</a> Course <a href= "https://build-your-own-life-coach.circle.so/checkout/access">Build Your Own Life Coach</a> is a great course for beginners wanting to get started. And here is a demo of <a href= "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFc7jXZ2pdE">GumLoop</a> from Greg Isenberg's channel on YouTube that impressed us both. </p> <p>In the back-half of the episode, Dan stumbles across Nietzsche's Modern Vices and we try to determine our views on overwork, curiosity, and sympathy. </p> <h3 data-start="1674" data-end="1710"><strong data-start="1678" data-end="1710">Books & Influences Mentioned</strong></h3> <ul data-start="1711" data-end="2347"> <li data-start="1711" data-end="1813"> <p data-start="1713" data-end="1813"><em>The Machiavellians, defenders of freedom</em> by <strong data-start="1713" data-end= "1735">James Burnham: </strong>Recommended as a read on political freedom and preference falsification.</p> </li> <li data-start="1815" data-end="1915"> <p data-start="1817" data-end="1915"><em>Boom</em> by <strong data-start="1817" data-end="1840">Bern Hobart:</strong> Suggested for its fresh perspective on economic and innovation booms.</p> </li> <li data-start="1917" data-end="2052"> <p data-start="1919" data-end="2052"><em>Amusing Ourselves to Death</em> by <strong>Neil Postman:</strong> Referenced when discussing modern media, communication, and information overload.</p> </li> <li data-start="2054" data-end="2188"> <p data-start="2056" data-end="2188"><em>Abduction</em> by <strong data-start="2056" data-end="2085">John E. Mack:</strong> Mentioned in the context of case studies on alien abductions, altered states of consciousness, and The Telepathy Tapes.</p> </li> <li data-start="2190" data-end="2347"> <p data-start="2192" data-end="2347"><strong data-start="2192" data-end="2213">Nietzsche's Ideas:</strong> The discussion on modern vices is heavily inspired by Nietzsche's critique of overwork, vague curiosity, and universal sympathy</p> </li> </ul> <p> </p> <h3 data-start="1674" data-end="1710"><strong data-start="1678" data-end="1710">Chapters</strong></h3> <p>00:00 Introduction and Current Events<br /> 02:56 Navigating Bureaucracy and Organizational Dynamics<br /> 05:37 Leadership Styles: Wartime vs. Peacetime CEOs<br /> 08:29 Embracing Change and Future Planning<br /> 11:17 Exploring New Skills and Content Creation<br /> 14:00 Technical Challenges and Innovations in Development<br /> 21:37 Exploring Competitors and AI Tools<br /> 26:31 Building in Public: Branding and Messaging<br /> 30:57 Modern Vices: Overwork, Curiosity, and Sympathy<br /> 39:58 Navigating Organizational Changes with Compassion<br /> 45:24 Exploring the Concept of Booms in Society<br /> 50:13 AI and Contextual Understanding<br /> <br /></p>
Millennials and Zoomers Lost in the Matrix
Feb 16, 2025
<p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. We recorded this one on Inauguration Day, so a few viewpoints have already been proven wildly-off or dead-on. We hit a lot of topics this week, as we catch up on our recent podcast addiction (<a href= "https://thetelepathytapes.com/">The Telepathy Tapes</a>) and what *it all means, man!* If you're a fan of sci-fi or an opponent of generational bashing, this one is for you!</p> <h3 data-start="72" data-end="96"><strong data-start="76" data-end= "96">Themes Discussed</strong></h3> <ul data-start="97" data-end="1124"> <li data-start="97" data-end="217"><strong data-start="99" data-end="127">Generational Differences</strong>: Millennials vs. Zoomers, attitudes toward work, alcohol, risk-taking, and mental health.</li> <li data-start="218" data-end="335"><strong data-start="220" data-end="252">Weather & Climate Resilience</strong>: Houston's rare snow event, infrastructure issues, and the impact of extreme cold.</li> <li data-start="336" data-end="536"><strong data-start="338" data-end="367">Telepathy & Consciousness</strong>: Discussion of <em data-start="383" data-end="404">The Telepathy Tapes</em> podcast, skepticism vs. belief, scientific and philosophical questions about consciousness, metaphysics, and the nature of reality.</li> <li data-start="537" data-end="686"><strong data-start="539" data-end="563">Science Fiction & AI</strong>: <em data-start= "565" data-end="584">Blade Runner 2049</em>, <em data-start="586" data-end="598">The Matrix</em>, <em data-start="600" data-end= "611">Star Trek</em>, and their influence on how we think about AI, consciousness, and society.</li> <li data-start="687" data-end="844"><strong data-start="689" data-end="717">News & Media Consumption</strong>: The role of cable news, Twitter, and TikTok in shaping public perception, information density, and generational media habits.</li> <li data-start="845" data-end="962"><strong data-start="847" data-end="896">Entrepreneurial Opportunities Under Trump 2.0</strong>: Speculative investment ideas based on anticipated policy shifts.</li> <li data-start="963" data-end="1124"><strong data-start="965" data-end="997">Personal Growth & Mentorship</strong>: Volunteering, teaching, and giving back to the community, including discussions about <em data-start="1085" data-end="1099">Minds Matter</em> and mentorship programs.</li> </ul> <h3 data-start="1584" data-end="1607"><strong data-start="1588" data-end="1607">Books Discussed</strong></h3> <ul data-start="1608" data-end="1945"> <li data-start="1608" data-end="1659"><em data-start="1610" data-end="1639">The Master and His Emissary</em> by Iain McGilchrist</li> <li data-start="1660" data-end="1706"><em data-start="1662" data-end="1690">Amusing Ourselves to Death</em> by Neil Postman</li> <li data-start="1707" data-end="1762"><em data-start="1709" data-end="1744">The Coddling of the American Mind</em> by Jonathan Haidt</li> <li data-start="1763" data-end="1800"><em data-start="1765" data-end="1782">Of Boys and Men</em> by Richard Reeves</li> <li data-start="1801" data-end="1853"><em data-start="1803" data-end="1816">The Martian</em> and <em data-start="1821" data-end="1840">Project Hail Mary</em> by Andy Weir</li> <li data-start="1854" data-end="1884"><em data-start="1856" data-end="1867">Galápagos</em> by Kurt Vonnegut</li> <li data-start="1885" data-end="1945"><em data-start="1887" data-end="1901">Annihilation</em> (Southern Reach Trilogy) by Jeff VanderMeer</li> </ul> <h3 data-start="1126" data-end="1153"><strong data-start="1130" data-end="1153">Companies Discussed</strong></h3> <ul data-start="1154" data-end="1582"> <li data-start="1154" data-end="1236"><strong data-start="1156" data-end="1167">Manplow</strong>: Endorsement of a large snow shovel for efficient driveway clearing.</li> <li data-start="1237" data-end="1324"><strong data-start="1239" data-end="1249">TikTok</strong>: Discussion about its potential ban and its impact on younger generations.</li> <li data-start="1325" data-end="1420"><strong data-start="1327" data-end="1337">Diageo</strong>: Mentioned in the context of alcohol consumption declines and industry challenges.</li> <li data-start="1421" data-end="1495"><strong data-start="1423" data-end="1446">Jensen Huang/NVIDIA</strong>: Brief reference in relation to AI and robotics.</li> <li data-start="1496" data-end="1582"><strong data-start="1498" data-end="1512">Trump Coin</strong>: Mentioned in the context of speculation and financial opportunities.</li> </ul> <h3 data-start="2878" data-end="2916"><strong data-start="2882" data-end="2916">Chapter Titles with Timestamps</strong></h3> <ol data-start="2917" data-end="3674"> <li data-start="2917" data-end="3002"><strong data-start="2920" data-end="2948">"Happy Inauguration Day"</strong> (00:00) – Opening banter and Houston's weather chaos.</li> <li data-start="3003" data-end="3088"><strong data-start="3006" data-end="3034">"The Manplow Revolution"</strong> (02:47) – Discussion about the oversized snow shovel.</li> <li data-start="3089" data-end="3214"><strong data-start="3092" data-end="3149">"The Telepathy Tapes: Mind-Blowing or Pseudoscience?"</strong> (04:06) – Deep dive into the podcast and consciousness theories.</li> <li data-start="3215" data-end="3325"><strong data-start="3218" data-end="3250">"Sci-Fi, AI, and The Matrix"</strong> (12:48) – Exploring how science fiction shapes views on AI and the future.</li> <li data-start="3326" data-end="3452"><strong data-start="3329" data-end="3379">"Millennials vs. Zoomers: Who's Got It Right?"</strong> (40:04) – A generational comparison on risk, alcohol, and mental health.</li> <li data-start="3453" data-end="3565"><strong data-start="3456" data-end="3503">"Mentorship, Minds Matter, and Giving Back"</strong> (1:09:19) – The role of volunteering and its personal impact.</li> <li data-start="3566" data-end="3674"><strong data-start="3569" data-end="3609">"Making Money Off the Grift Economy"</strong> (1:05:57) – Investment speculation under the new administration.</li> </ol>
There's Nobody in the Forecasters Hall of Fame
Feb 3, 2025
<p>Hello my dear show notes readers,</p> <p>Welcome back for another episode advice. This one starts of personal for me as I explain how I've been getting into lifting weights. In the process, life reminded me of the old adage<br /> "experience is what you get, when you don't get what you want." In short, I try to be as honest with myself and you as I can about hitting the bit 4-0 and making some important life decisions. </p> <p>Later, we devolve into our usual banter with a heavy dose of AI talk. Dan and I are both having a blast with <a href= "https://blog.nateliason.com/p/ai-course">Nat Eliason's</a> Course <a href= "https://build-your-own-life-coach.circle.so/checkout/access">Build Your Own Life Coach</a>. If our convo piqued your interest, you should check it out. </p> <p>Later, Dan decides to match my energy - if you don't know what I mean, check out the Adam Grant and Charles Duhigg books below - and gets personal on recent challenges facing one of his ecomm businesses. </p> <p>Y'all, it's simultaneously hard and exciting out there and we get REAL this week. </p> <p>Cheers,</p> <p>Sean</p> <h3><strong>Books Discussed:</strong></h3> <ul> <li><em>The Sovereign Individual</em> by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg</li> <li>Works of Carl Jung</li> </ul> <h3><strong>Companies Discussed:</strong></h3> <ul> <li>Bloomberg</li> <li>Amazon</li> <li>Google</li> <li>Apple</li> <li>Walmart</li> <li>Peloton</li> <li>Academy Sports + Outdoors</li> </ul> <p><strong>Chapters</strong></p> <p><strong>00:00</strong> Embracing the Big 4-0<br /> <strong>03:53</strong> Winding Down Fig: A Tough Decision<br /> <strong>09:55</strong> Lessons Learned from Business Ventures<br /> <strong>12:48</strong> Setting New Goals and Exploring AI<br /> <strong>25:36</strong> The Evolution of AI and Data Privacy<br /> <strong>33:31</strong> Personal Updates and AI Coding Adventures<br /> <strong>40:28</strong> Challenges of E-commerce and Tariff Enforcement<br /> <strong>48:13</strong> Navigating Tariff Codes and Compliance<br /> <strong>54:08</strong> Exploring Global Living Options<br /> <strong>59:18</strong> Insights from Carl Jung<br /> <strong>01:04:16</strong> The Power of Consciousness and Fate<br /> <strong>01:08:11</strong> Reflections on Planning and Control</p>
We're in an Age of Build
Jan 28, 2025
<p><strong>Hello, Show Notes Readers</strong></p> <p>We find ourselves neck-deep in a discussion about stated versus revealed preferences for the half of the show, as I take us on a trip down memory lane after doing my Christmas shopping. Nostalgia alert! Dan explains his theory on capital flight and we come to the realization that 80s dystopic downtowns were symptoms and not causes of previous preference shifts. </p> <p>After that, we look into the future as Dan tells us about his experience learning to write code with AI tools. The discussion gets a bit technical, but if you're thinking about how to apply AI in your day-to-day, be sure to listen in for Dan's tips on where to get started. </p> <p>Thanks for tuning in and we hope you enjoy!</p> <p>Cheers,</p> <p>Sean</p> <p><strong>Highlights include:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Why the retail landscape continues to evolve and what that means for the future of malls and city centers.</li> <li>A discussion on downtown revitalization and population density: can we break the boom-and-bust cycle of urban centers?</li> <li>Dan's hands-on experience with AI-powered coding tools and how they're changing the game for developers and non-developers alike.</li> <li>Practical tips for getting started with AI tools like Cursor, Bolt, and more.</li> </ul> <h3><strong>Companies Discussed</strong></h3> <ul> <li>Sharper Image</li> <li>Amazon</li> <li>Brookstone</li> <li>SLB (formerly Schlumberger)</li> <li>Microsoft</li> <li>Google</li> <li>Tesla</li> <li>Simon Property Group</li> </ul> <h3><strong>Chapters</strong></h3> <p>00:00 Holiday Reflections and the Evolution of Gift Shopping<br /> 06:44 The Changing Landscape of Malls<br /> 10:39 Capital Flight and Urban Revitalization<br /> 20:10 The Future of City Centers and Density<br /> 26:49 Economic Dynamics in Urban Development<br /> 31:48 Shifts in Urban Living Preferences<br /> 34:41 The Future of Software Development with AI<br /> 41:31 Building Software Solutions for Industry Challenges<br /> 47:07 Strategic Opportunities in the Oil and Gas Sector<br /> 51:46 Identifying Use Cases in Industries<br /> 54:24 Automation and Error Reduction in Business Processes<br /> 57:59 The Future of AI and Automation<br /> 01:00:37 Comparing AI Tools: ChatGPT vs. Claude<br /> 01:04:12 Exploring New Ideas and Recommendations</p>
Showing off Our Big Shiny Crystal Balls 🔮🔮
Jan 16, 2025
<p><em>Hello my dear show notes readers</em>!</p> <p>I've missed you so. We took a little longer than expected break this time, because <a href= "https://open.substack.com/pub/blacktuesdays/p/there-was-a-place?r=11xjyw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"> someone recently turned 40</a> and hit it a little too hard in the fine city of New Orleans. Have you ever been? If not, you really <em>must</em> go. One night is not enough. Two nights are divine. Three nights are for 30-somethings. </p> <p>But back to the crux of the matter! This week, we take a look back at some dumb stuff we said about 2024 last January, have a hearty chuckle, and proceed to say some dumb stuff about the coming year. We had a blast and hope you enjoy listening in as we stare down at our big shiny crystal balls. </p> <p>Hugs and kisses,</p> <p>Old Man Sean</p> <p><strong>Chapters</strong></p> <p>00:00 Reflections on Predictions for 2024<br /> 09:28 Lessons Learned from Past Predictions<br /> 12:19 Bold Predictions for 2025<br /> -15:22 The Future of Advertising and Market Behavior<br /> -17:56 Labor Market Predictions and Economic Corrections<br /> -21:03 Jay Powell Buys Bitcoin?<br /> -28:29 Anticipating Scandals in Private Equity<br /> -31:50 The DEI Pendulum Continues to Change Direction<br /> -34:06 Labor Strikes: Frequency vs. Success<br /> -37:28 The Future of SEO and AI Integration<br /> -41:05 Revamping Old Apps with AI Technology<br /> 48:27 Personal Growth and Life Reflections<br /> <br /></p>
Radical Acceptance and Other Goals
Dec 31, 2024
<p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>Resolutions are for wusses! This week we're goal setting!? Yeah, we're not really sure what the difference is either, but we hope you listen-in and help <strong><em>hold us accountable</em></strong> in the year to come. </p> <p>Here's a summary of how we want to improve ouselve in 2025:</p> <p><strong>Dan's Goals</strong></p> <ul class="ul1"> <li>Embrace Radical Acceptance</li> <li class="li1">Improve Quality of Presence <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Focus</li> <li>Do better at being 'off'</li> <li>Punctuation</li> </ul> </li> <li class="li1">Do things you can tell your grandkids about</li> <li class="li1">Do better than pay bills </li> <li class="li1">Enact "strategy days" (check out our <a href= "https://sites.libsyn.com/513538/your-sht-stinks-find-someone-who-agrees"> episode on the topic</a>)</li> <li class="li1">Enjoy my weirdness and embrace goofy</li> <li class="li1">Can't save souls in an empty church <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Add value</li> <li class="li1">See Podcast Goals below</li> </ul> </li> <li class="li1"><span class="s1"><a href= "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX-K63pVPTM"><span class= "s2">Aspire to Optimism</span></a> (link goes to David Deutch on Optimism)</span> <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1"><span class="s1">Dan's not sure yet, but he's gonna get back to us after clicking that link</span></li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Sean's Goals</strong></p> <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Finding Guideposts & Punctuation <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Exprience one "Top 10 Day"</li> <li class="li1">Find 12 flow states</li> </ul> </li> <li class="li1">Asking better questions - helping others do the same</li> <li class="li1">Habits <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">100 bike rides</li> <li class="li1">50,000 words written</li> </ul> </li> <li class="li1">Learn how to integrate AI into workflows <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Create an AI agent to learn how and not be left behind. </li> </ul> </li> <li class="li1">Unplugged time <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Create designated unplugged time and track progress</li> </ul> </li> <li class="li1">Try a hobby that involves physical creation <ul class="ul1"> <li class="li1">Anyone got a recommendation for a 3D printer?</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Podcast Goals</strong></p> <ul> <li>5,000 downloads</li> <li>10,000 YouTube engagements</li> <li>Set up an email so you can email us. Not that anyone wants or needs more email, but really do we want to hear from you if you have something to say. </li> </ul> <p> </p> <p> </p>
Sovereign Individuals and Broken Incentives
Dec 22, 2024
<p>Hello Show Notes Readers!</p> <p>This week, turned into a bit of a bookclub episode. We compare our notes on the start of Sovereign Individual and talk about areas where the authors imaginations hit or missed the mark. The one thing we both agree on, so far: it's a long book. The discussion turns towards the attitudes we've witnessed on the heels of the assassination of Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare. Are the ugly attitudes we see around our healthcare institutions symptoms of a larger scale fragmentation of society envisioned in Sovereign Individual?</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Books Recommended</strong></p> <p><strong><em>Five Decembers</em></strong> by James Kestrel<br /> <strong><em>Artemis</em></strong> and <strong><em>The Martian</em></strong> by Andy Weir<br /> Jo Nesbo's Harry Hole Series<br /> <strong><em>The Winter of our Discontent</em></strong> by John Steinbeck<br /> <strong><em>1Q84</em></strong> by Haruki Murakami</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Chapters</strong></p> <p><strong>00:00</strong> Synthwave and Futuristic Sounds<br /> <strong>04:14</strong> Exploring Literature and Reading Recommendations<br /> <strong>08:35</strong> Diving into Non-Fiction: The Sovereign Individual<br /> <strong>14:03</strong> The Future of Government and Digital Economy<br /> <strong>22:29</strong> Healthcare System Reactions<br /> <strong>33:22</strong> Cultural References and Language<br /> <strong>38:30</strong> Doomsday Predictions and Societal Fragmentation<br /> <strong>40:28</strong> Comparing 'Sovereign Individual' and 'The Fourth Turning'<br /> <strong>43:25</strong> Books That Challenge Us<br /> <strong><br /> <br /></strong></p> <p> </p>
Eastern Wisdom, Western Routines, and the Art of Being Present
Dec 16, 2024
<p>Hello show notes readers!</p> <p>This week, Billy Pilgrim is becoming unstuck in time as we talk about how "the daily routine" is simultaneously a blessing and a curse. We explore the importance of marking life's milestones - "punctuations in time" - and how they shape our sense of memory and progress.</p> <p>We ask, "Can carefully curating your media diet help with your sanity?" and dive into the mental toll of algorithms, social media, and the constant noise of the digital age. Along the way, we urge you to check out Tim Urban's <a href= "https://waitbutwhy.com/2013/10/why-procrastinators-procrastinate.html"> Monkey</a>, and reflect on the fascinating interplay of rationality and chaos in our minds.</p> <p>Other highlights include:</p> <ul> <li>The magic and madness of Spotify Wrapped and what it reveals about us.</li> <li>Eastern vs. Western philosophies and how cultural lenses shape perception.</li> <li>Reflections on AGI, the future of sensory technologies, and what comes after the Information Age.</li> <li>Parenthood, presence, and finding joy amidst the chaos of family life.</li> <li>Manifesting intentions for 2025 and the art of asking more meaningful questions.</li> </ul> <p>Join us as we laugh, reflect, and try to make sense of the absurdity of it all.</p> <p><strong>Things to Check Out</strong></p> <ol> <li>The Daily Tay: <a href= "https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAWXzhYSck5/?igsh=aGhyaWd0d3g2Yng5"> this</a> or <a href= "https://www.instagram.com/reel/DDFiz8iyc2g/?igsh=MzN4NG9mZWpwNGh6"> this</a>.</li> <li>Tim Urban's <a href= "https://waitbutwhy.com/2013/10/why-procrastinators-procrastinate.html"> Monkey</a>,</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Books Discussed</strong></h3> <ol> <li><em>How to Know a Person</em> by David Brooks</li> <li><em>Chatter</em> by Ethan Kross</li> <li><em>The Tao Te Ching</em> by Lao Tsu</li> <li><em>The WEIRDest People in the World</em> by Joseph Henrich </li> </ol> <h3><strong>Companies Discussed</strong></h3> <ol> <li>Spotify</li> <li>Apple (Apple Music, Apple One)</li> <li>Tidal</li> <li>Osmo.ai (smell digitization)</li> <li>Lux Capital (investments in innovation)</li> <li>Obsidian (note-taking app)</li> </ol> <h3><strong>Chapters</strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong>00:00</strong> - Spotify Wrapped Insights</li> <li><strong>04:19</strong> - Economics of Streaming Services</li> <li><strong>06:34</strong> - Questions for Reflection and Personal Growth</li> <li><strong>14:13</strong> - AGI and the Future of Technology</li> <li><strong>28:06</strong> - Travel and Routine in Parenting</li> <li><strong>41:29</strong> - Internal Dialogue and Mental Health</li> <li><strong>48:28</strong> - Eastern vs. Western Philosophies</li> <li><strong>55:10</strong> - Manifesting Goals for 2025</li> <li><strong>1:09:56 -</strong> Closing Thoughts and Humor</li> </ul>
Embracing the Chaos Monkey
Dec 10, 2024
<p>Hello show notes readers!</p> <p>I hope this episode finds you well. We are dabbling with a weekly release schedule here this quarter and hope you enjoy a little extra content. </p> <p>This week on Unqualified Advice: Dan flys to Cebu and I drive up the Pacific Coast Highway and we arrive at the same point: <a href= "https://twitter.com/nateliason/status/1858524566223540730">Nat Eliason</a> is wrong and <em>The Fourth Turning</em> is nowhere near it's end. </p> <p><strong>Chapters</strong></p> <p><strong>00:00 Weather and Reflections on the Philippines Trip</strong><br /> <strong>06:41 Work and Transparency in Business</strong><br /> <strong>09:06 The Fourth Turning Discussion</strong><br /> -11:54 Crisis and Reconstruction<br /> -14:36 Economic Perspectives on Tariffs<br /> -17:16 The Future of Trade and Manufacturing<br /> -23:29 Envisioning a Golden Age<br /> -26:25 The Impact of Global Trade on Society<br /> -27:21 Trust in Government Institutions<br /> -31:02 Reforming Entitlement Programs<br /> -35:47 The Future of Social Security<br /> <strong>41:02 The Importance of Connection with Nature</strong><br /> <strong>43:21 Navigating Parenthood Challenges</strong><br /> -46:13 Support Systems for Parents<br /> -49:17 Socioeconomic Disparities in Education<br /> -52:15 The Role of Service in Society<br /> -55:21 Progress and Challenges in Society<br /> <br /></p>
Do You Have Time to Feel Like 💩?
Dec 2, 2024
<p>Hello to the readers of the show notes!</p> <p>This time around, Dan braves Denver traffic to bring us insights from the <a href="https://smartmarketer.com/">Smart Marketer conference</a> he attended in October, including a very poignant question from keynote speaker <a href= "https://gabbybernstein.com/">Gabby Bernstein</a>. We ruminate on his takeaways before diving into the challenges behind unit economics and shipping faced by small business owners in today's e-commerce landscape. </p> <p>While Dan was busy at his conference, I was busy being way <em>too online</em>. So, I brought him up to speed on the Washington Post declining to endorse a candidate for president and had an <em>A</em><em>ha!</em> moment in the process. Spoiler alert, we're with Jeff on this one? <em>It's December, this is old News!</em> you say? Maybe, but the insights remain timeless. </p> <p>We circle back to Gabby's influential message, discuss why she hadn't hit our radar until now, and look for some male analogs that may (or may not) currently exist. </p> <p>As always, thanks for tuning in!</p> <p>Cheers,</p> <p>Sean</p> <h3><strong>Books Discussed:</strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong>Books by Gabby Bernstein</strong> <ul> <li>While specific titles weren't named, she has written several New York Times bestsellers centered on spirituality, meditation, and self-improvement.</li> <li>Possible examples currently from my content queue include <em>The Universe Has Your Back</em> and <em>Super Attractor</em>.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Give and Take</strong> by Adam Grant <ul> <li>A book Dan recommended - that I have since finished and <em>Wow!</em> - as a valuable read for understanding reciprocity and its impact on personal and professional relationships.</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Of Boys and Men</strong> by Richard Reeves <ul> <li>Discussed in the context of addressing male issues and broader societal dynamics.</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><strong>Companies Discussed</strong></p> <ul> <li> <p><strong>Smart Marketer:</strong> A digital marketing education and agency platform co-founded by Ezra Firestone and Molly Pittman. This was the central organizer of the marketing conference Daniel attended.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Native Deodorant:</strong> A brand founded by Moiz Ali, mentioned as an inspiration for Daniel to attend the conference after reading a tweet where Ali credited it as life-changing for his business.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Amazon:</strong> Discussed extensively in relation to its logistics dominance, FBA (Fulfilled by Amazon) vs. FBM (Fulfilled by Merchant) models, and customer expectations for shipping costs and speed.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>The Washington Post/Blue Origin:</strong> Brought up during a discussion about Jeff Bezos's decision to prevent the editorial board from endorsing political candidates, sparking debates on journalistic bias and freedom of expression. </p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Meta (Facebook Ads):</strong> Referenced in the context of digital marketing strategies, as Meta ads are a key tool for businesses and a focus at the conference Daniel attended.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Walmart Plus:</strong> An alternative platform that may be getting a bump from customers dissatisfied with Amazon's business practices.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>USPS (United States Postal Service): </strong>A critical element in Daniel's shipping logistics strategy, particularly for small orders and flat-rate shipping.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>Meow Wolf:</strong> Highlighted by Sean as a new immersive art experience in Houston, providing an interactive and surreal environment, with locations in Santa Fe, Denver, Dallas, and Las Vegas. </p> </li> <li> <p><strong>St. Arnold's Brewery:</strong> A local Houston brewery located adjacent to the new Meow Wolf Houston location. Seriously, y'all, come visit H-town sometime and hit @SlowVSM up on Twitter. </p> </li> </ul> <p> </p> <p><strong>Chapters</strong></p> <p>00:00 Conference Insights and Personal Growth<br /> 03:35 Marketing Strategies and Team Development<br /> 06:21 E-commerce Challenges and Solutions<br /> 08:53 Shipping Economics and Customer Experience<br /> 11:46 Amazon's Business Model and Market Impact<br /> 14:33 Editorial Independence and Media Ethics<br /> 20:33 Cultural Experiences and Community Engagement<br /> 24:36 Reflections on Turning 40<br /> 25:28 Travel Plans and Celebrations<br /> 26:54 Culinary Adventures in Hawaii<br /> 29:13 Insights from Gabby Bernstein<br /> 31:44 Empowerment and Self-Reflection<br /> 33:41 The Challenge of People-Pleasing<br /> 35:27 The Value of Connection at Conferences<br /> 37:13 Understanding and Befriending Your Demons<br /> 39:55 Exploring Male Role Models<br /> 44:07 Traveling to the Philippines<br /> <br /></p>
Broken Segues and Segways: From Chips to Dips in the Market
Nov 25, 2024
<p>Hello show notes readers!</p> <p>This time we dive into markets, media, and misinformation. We discuss TSMC's record setting Arizona fab and its impact on semiconductor production, national security, and the Pheonix water market. </p> <p>I tell Dan why the Schiller PE ratio has been haunting me, as we ponder its historical significance and what today's elevated levels might mean for the economy. Are we due for a downturn? Is it time to adjust your investments?</p> <p>On the cultural front, I shares insights from Neil Postman's <em>Amusing Ourselves to Death</em>, sparking a discussion on the perils of media overload, misinformation, and what it takes to inoculate ourselves against disinformation in the TikTok era.</p> <p>Like the perception of their quality, we take a dive into the broken incentives at Boeing, the importance of innovation over shareholder value, and the role of corporate bonds in stormy economic skies. </p> <p><strong>What the AI Reviews are Saying:</strong></p> <p>"With humor, wit, and plenty of tangents, this episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about the intersection of markets, technology, and modern life." - GPT 4o</p> <p><strong>Companies Discussed:</strong></p> <ul> <li>TSMC</li> <li>NVIDIA</li> <li>Apple</li> <li>ASML Holdings</li> <li>Boeing</li> <li>Airbus</li> <li>Embraer</li> <li>Bombardier</li> </ul> <p><strong>Books Recommended:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Dark Matter</strong> by Blake Crouch</li> <li><strong>Amusing Ourselves to Death</strong> by Neil Postman</li> <li><strong>Wayward Pines Series</strong> by Blake Crouch </li> </ul> <p><strong>Chapters:</strong></p> <p>00:00 Market Movements and Economic Insights<br /> 04:15 TSMC's Advancements, Water Usage and Environmental Concerns<br /> 09:12 Literature Recommendations and Reflections<br /> 11:50 Media Consumption and Information Overload<br /> 14:51 The Role of Education in Critical Thinking<br /> 17:33 Misinformation vs. Disinformation<br /> 20:26 The Evolution of Television and Entertainment<br /> 22:52 Personal Reflections on Media Consumption<br /> 32:04 Understanding Market Indicators and Valuations<br /> 34:46 Investment Strategies in a High PE Environment<br /> 38:03 Debt vs. Equity: Navigating Asset Classes<br /> 41:43 Evaluating Corporate Bonds and Recession Risks<br /> 43:45 The Future of Major Corporations: Boeing and TSMC<br /> 48:34 The Disconnect in Corporate Incentives<br /> 52:10 Speculating on Future Trades and Investments</p>
The Many Deaths of Life: On Progress, Not Perfection
Nov 21, 2024
<p>Hello show notes readers!</p> <p>Sorry for the late episode! Someone forgot the difference between November and December when scheduling this one to post. I just tried to give myself sideeye... not sure how effective it was. </p> <p>In this episode of <em>Unqualified Advice</em>, we talk about our perspectives on challenges facing men today. We get a bit deep, exploring themes of loneliness, mental health, and the crisis of modern masculinity. For any wives who may be reading this and say we don't talk about our feelings enough... here's some proof that we can!</p> <p>From the importance of positive role models to the evolving definitions of masculinity, we do our best to give earnest opinions on what is impacting our own pschcyes. Also discuss the value of social capital, the power of iterative progress, and the pitfalls of chasing perfection.</p> <p>Join in for a blend personal anecdotes, data-driven insights, and a touch of humor to shed light on these pressing topics. Whether you're seeking inspiration, understanding, or connection, this episode offers a thought-provoking exploration of what it means to grow, stumble, and keep moving forward.</p> <p>Thanks for listening if you are listening!</p> <p>Cheers,</p> <p>Sean</p> <h3>Books Discussed:</h3> <p><em><strong>Of Boys and Men</strong></em> by Richard Reeves - central to the discussion on the challenges facing men and young men today, focusing on societal shifts and their impact on mental health and identity.</p> <p><em><strong>The Coddling of the American Mind</strong></em> and <strong><em>The Happiness Hypothesis</em></strong> by Jonathan Haidt - referenced in the context of societal challenges, particularly among younger generations.</p> <p><em><strong>How to Know a Person</strong></em> by David Brooks: gighlighted as a book about building deeper connections and fostering community.</p> <p><strong>Give and Take</strong> by Adam Grant: mentioned in the context of social capital and the dynamics between givers, takers, and matchers.</p> <p><strong>Chapters</strong></p> <p>00:00 Bagels and Ironman: A Lighthearted Start<br /> 06:02 Addressing Men's Issues: A Bold Statement<br /> 11:38 The Crisis of Masculinity: Role Models and Expectations<br /> 16:42 Suicide Rates and Mental Health: A Growing Concern<br /> 22:05 The Complexity of Male Emotions: Internal vs External<br /> 27:22 The Search for Positive Role Models: Light vs Dark Traits<br /> 30:57 The Role of Public Figures as Modern Role Models<br /> 34:15 Exploring Generational Perspectives and Societal Expectations<br /> 35:24 The Quest for Self-Acceptance and Perfectionism<br /> 38:38 Practicing Gratitude and Recognizing Progress<br /> 41:45 Navigating Life's Challenges and Building Momentum<br /> 45:13 Understanding Gender Dynamics and Mental Health<br /> 47:09 The Importance of Dialogue and Emotional Intelligence<br /> 50:30 Creating Positive Interactions and Social Capital<br /> <br /></p>
Supply Chains are the Butter in the Croissant
Oct 28, 2024
<p>Hello dear show notes readers!</p> <p>This week, the rubber meets the road—literally! Sean dives into stories from his travels to industrial sites where rubber is produced, giving a glimpse into the gritty reality of this essential material's manufacturing. Meanwhile, Dan shares insights into how he's using AI to streamline operations for his online business, exploring how cutting-edge tools can optimize tasks. Along the way, we venture into the fascinating world of memetics, behavioral finance, and the ways AI might just change everything.</p> <p><strong>Companies Discussed:</strong></p> <ul> <li>SLB (formerly Schlumberger)</li> <li>Michelin</li> <li>Bridgestone</li> <li>Cabot</li> <li>Orion Engineered Carbons</li> <li>Parker</li> <li>Green Tweed</li> <li>Freudenberg </li> <li>CQC (C Quest Capital)</li> <li>IBM</li> <li>Decker's</li> <li>Crocs </li> </ul> <p><strong>Books Recommended:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>"The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe</strong> – Referenced in the context of societal cycles and potential future upheavals.</li> <li><strong>"Range" by David Epstein</strong> – Discussed in the context of generalists versus specialists.</li> <li><strong>"The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan</strong> – Referenced in discussions about global supply chains and geopolitics.</li> <li><strong>"The Material World" by Ed Conway</strong> – Mentioned in relation to resource management and global economics.</li> <li><strong>"The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki</strong> – Touched upon in the discussion of meme investing and crowd behavior.</li> </ul>
Do You Want Your Free Market Back?
Oct 14, 2024
<p>Hello show notes readers!</p> <p>Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. We ask some hard questions this week. Did all high school guidance counselors suck? Should Dan have been a Rabbi? What are the physics of the shaggy dog van from dumb and dumber in a torrential downpour? Listen in as we ponder these important questions, and join us in media res as Sean describes a duh moment he had while reading Howard Marks' September 2024 memo Shall we Repeal the Laws of Economics? We're pretty sure the answer is no, but why don't you join us and see what you think?</p> <p><strong>Companies Discussed</strong></p> <ul> <li>Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks)</li> <li>Uber</li> <li>McDonald's</li> <li>Taylor Swift (kinda a company?)</li> <li>StubHub</li> <li>Ferrari</li> <li>IBM</li> <li>Oscar Mayer</li> <li>Apple </li> <li>RadioShack</li> <li>Clarkson's Farm </li> <li>Anduril Industries </li> <li>Coca-Cola</li> </ul> <p><strong>Books Recommended</strong></p> <ul> <li> <p><strong>"The Psychology of Money"</strong> by Morgan Housel – Referenced during a discussion about the paradox of wealth and perception, specifically regarding people buying expensive items for external validation.</p> </li> <li> <p><strong>"The Comfort Crisis"</strong> by Michael Easter – Mentioned in relation to the idea of seeking discomfort to grow, and how modern life is often too comfortable.</p> </li> </ul> <p> </p> <p><strong>00:00</strong> Intro and Theme<br /> <strong>01:27</strong> Discussing Howard Marks and Some Serious Questions<br /> <strong>03:44</strong> Understanding Price Dynamics and Market Forces<br /> <strong>06:06</strong> The Role of Auctions in Pricing<br /> <strong>08:30</strong> Consumer Behavior and Pricing Perceptions<br /> <strong>14:26</strong> Pondering the Physics of the Shaggy Dog Van<br /> <strong>16:08</strong> Stated vs. Revealed Preferences in Economics<br /> <strong>22:09</strong> Did All Guidance Councilors Suck? Should Dan Have Been A Rabbi?<br /> <strong>26:39</strong> Zooming Out on Inflation & Zooming in on Tariffs<br /> <strong>32:33</strong> What Will "Made in the USA" Look Like Tomorrow?</p>
Roadside Recharging, a.k.a. Why Didn't We Talk More About Bucky's???
Sep 30, 2024
<p>Hello show notes reader!</p> <p>It's been one of those 50 hour weeks with 40 hours of meetings. You know what I mean? No, well we talk about it this week, along with dreams of bugging-off to an island somewhere. </p> <p>In fact, I'm gonna bug-off and turn the rest of these notes over to GPT, while I have a beer:</p> <p><em>In this episode of Unqualified Advice, Daniel Hatke and Sean Filipow cover a mix of personal anecdotes, fitness challenges, and deeper discussions on technology and the future. Daniel recounts his Labor Day weekend, sharing details about his family's activities and a recent sprint duathlon he completed. The duo dive into a conversation about data centers, AI development, and power consumption, sparked by a recent Invest Like the Best episode featuring Gavin Baker. They explore the challenges of energy efficiency in data centers and Tesla's advancements in AI and autonomous driving. The hosts also reflect on the complexities of climate change, renewable energy, and the material requirements for a sustainable future. The episode wraps up with musings on travel plans to the Philippines and Vietnam, the frustrations of dynamic pricing, and potential domestic and international business ventures</em>.</p> <p>Cheers,</p> <p>Sean</p> <p><strong>Companies Discussed</strong></p> <ul> <li>Tesla</li> <li>Waymo</li> <li>Shake Shack</li> <li>Kaiser</li> <li>Bucky's (#IYKYK)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Chapter List</strong></p> <p><strong>00:00</strong> Introduction and Labor Day Weekend<br /> <strong>03:42</strong> Preparing for an Ironman Race and Vaccine Considerations for the Philippines<br /> <strong>06:00</strong> Vaccines for the Philippines and Monkeypox Concerns<br /> <strong>11:27</strong> Exploring the Investment Potential of AI Technology<br /> <strong>17:14</strong> Challenges of Materials Extraction for Renewable Energy<br /> <strong>18:26</strong> Dan Explains What Goes Down in a Datacenter<br /> <strong>24:52</strong> Advancements in Self-Driving Technology<br /> <strong>27:31</strong> Electric Cars and Transportation<br /> <strong>30:52</strong> Kiosks: Customer Experience and Efficiency<br /> <strong>34:58</strong> Dynamic Pricing and Consumer Behavior<br /> <strong>38:29</strong> Planning for International Travel<br /> <strong>42:12</strong> Planning Sessions and Work Efficiency<br /> <strong>44:45</strong> Travel Plans and Exploring New Destinations<br /> <strong>46:58</strong> Dreaming of a Different Lifestyle<br /> <br /></p>
Sleepless Nights and Corporate Fights
Sep 16, 2024
<p>Hello dear show notes reader,</p> <p>What makes a toddler brave? How should you think about the scale of massive infrastructure projects and their impact on the surrounding community? What should you consider when dealing with your cranky boss?</p> <p><em>Are we just getting old? </em></p> <p>Tune in as we mull over these questions and more in this episode of Unqualified Advice. </p> <p><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-headingXSmall css-1mp1p0p e1de0imv0"> Chapters</span></p> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">00:00</span></strong> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Busy Weeks and Sleep Regression</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">02:02</span></strong> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Pre-K and the Bravery of Children</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0"><strong> 05:09</strong></span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Water Usage and Eli Lilly's Facility</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">13:01</span></strong> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Chicago Experience and Real Estate Market</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">19:18</span></strong> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Government Stimulus and the Housing Market</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">19:55</span></strong> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Challenges of the Housing Market</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0"><strong> 21:10</strong></span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Tax Incentives for Home Builders</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0"><strong> 25:36</strong></span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Influence of Dystopian Literature</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0"><strong> 32:39</strong></span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Workplace Dynamics: Conflicting Directives</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0"><strong> 53:24</strong></span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Overcoming the 'That's Not My Job' Mentality</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0"><strong> 56:24</strong></span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Finding Team Members Who Go Beyond Their Assigned Roles</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">59:58</span></strong> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Interview Strategies for Identifying Proactive and Collaborative Individuals</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"> </div>
Accidental IronDan: An Unqualified Happy Hour
Sep 1, 2024
<p>Hello Show Notes readers,</p> <p>Since Dan and Sean went to college together, you could imagine they know how to have a few drinks and still have an intelligent converstaion. This week, that hypothesis gets tested with an Unqualified Happy Hour. Perhaps it should be and Overqualified Happy Hour, given the hosts' history. </p> <p>Listen in as Dan shares a news of a recent embarrasing event, Sean talks about the physchology at play during a market crash and rebound, and the two debate what book they should read next. </p> <p><strong>Next time on Unqualified Advice</strong>, you can look forward to the hosts (sober this time) delving into their first ever listener question. If you have a question for Sean and Dan to discuss <em>On Air</em>, reach out to them on Twitter (#Bird4Eva) @SlowVSM or @DanielHatke. </p> <p><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-headingXSmall css-1mp1p0p e1de0imv0"> Chapters</span></strong></p> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">00:00</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Accidental Entry: From Duathlon to Half Ironman</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">03:28</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Market Blip and Economic Psychology</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">06:26</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Training Challenges and Preparation</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">12:14</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Role of Vibes in the Economy</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">24:50</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Erroneous Execution of Cell Orders</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">25:36</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Ocean's Eleven Style Breakdown</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">26:34</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Challenges of Affording a Home in Southern California</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">31:02</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Evolution of Selling Out and the Tall Poppy Syndrome</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">33:28</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Negative People Sound Smart</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">36:01</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Strategies for Success and Preventing Resentment</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">39:13</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Cynicism and Resentment in Society</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">40:12</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Role of Detractors and Negative Drivers</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">41:14</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Exploring the Concept of a Hive Mind</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">42:37</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Impact of Collective Thinking</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">47:42</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Generational Cycles and Society</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">53:46</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> What's in Our Queue?</span></div> <p> </p> <p><strong>Book Reccomendations</strong></p> <ol> <li> <p><strong>"Amusing Ourselves to Death" by Neil Postman</strong></p> <ul> <li>Discusses the impact of television and media on public discourse, contrasting the dystopian visions of George Orwell and Aldous Huxley.</li> </ul> </li> <li> <p><strong>"The Age of Wonder" by Richard Holmes</strong></p> <ul> <li>Explores the history of science during the late 18th and early 19th centuries, focusing on the lives of pioneering scientists and explorers.</li> </ul> </li> <li> <p><strong>"Trust" by Hernan Diaz</strong></p> <ul> <li>A novel set in the 1920s and 1930s, exploring themes of wealth, power, and the construction of history through the lens of complex characters in New York and Switzerland.</li> </ul> </li> <li> <p><strong>"The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy" by William Strauss and Neil Howe</strong></p> <ul> <li>Examines generational cycles in American history, predicting societal trends and shifts based on recurring patterns.</li> </ul> </li> <li> <p><strong>"Stiff: The Curious Lives of Human Cadavers" by Mary Roach</strong></p> <ul> <li>A humorous and informative exploration of what happens to human bodies after death, delving into the science and history of cadavers.</li> </ul> </li> <li> <p><strong>"Bad Therapy" by Abigail Shrier</strong></p> <ul> <li>Focuses on the pitfalls of certain therapeutic practices, especially those affecting young people, with broader implications for management and human behavior.</li> </ul> </li> </ol> <p> </p>
Two Degrees of Kevin Naked
Aug 28, 2024
<p>Hello show notes readers,</p> <p>Thanks for tuning into another episode of Unqualified Advice. We went all over the place this time. Here is what you can look forward to in this episode:</p> <p><strong><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-headingXSmall css-1mp1p0p e1de0imv0"> Chapters</span></strong></p> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">00:00</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Olympics and Movie Theater Experiences</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">08:04</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Book Recommendations and Generational Cycles</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">19:34</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The State of the Economy and Interest Rate Cuts</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">27:53</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Impact of Policy on Inflation and Liquidity</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">31:18</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Concept of Being a 'Townie'</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">35:04</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Naming of Generations and Its Significance</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">36:33</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Development and Potential of AI Technology</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">40:09</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Importance of Bubbles in Innovation</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">44:06</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Challenges Faced by IT Professionals during the CrowdStrike Incident</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">51:00</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Unintended Consequences of Legislation</span></div> <p> </p> <p><strong>Companies discussed</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>NBC/Peacock</strong> - Mentioned in relation to the Olympics broadcast and the iconography used for sports like beach volleyball.</li> <li><strong>AMC Theatres</strong> - Discussed in the context of the movie-going experience, including concessions like Pepsi vs. Coke.</li> <li><strong>Regal Cinemas</strong> - Compared with AMC in terms of concessions offered (Pepsi vs. Coke).</li> <li><strong>Pepsi</strong> - Discussed as the concession choice at some movie theaters and in certain towns.</li> <li><strong>Coca-Cola (specifically Cherry Coke)</strong> - Preferred by Sean over Pepsi at movie theaters.</li> <li><strong>Epic Pass (Vail Resorts)</strong> - Mentioned in relation to the Pepsi contracts at certain mountain towns.</li> <li><strong>Microsoft</strong> - Discussed in the context of IT issues, particularly with email and cybersecurity.</li> <li><strong>CrowdStrike</strong> - The main focus of a cybersecurity incident that impacted IT systems.</li> <li><strong>Symantec and McAfee</strong> - Mentioned in relation to antivirus and security software operating at the kernel level.</li> <li><strong>BNY Mellon and JPMorgan</strong> - Referenced in relation to the flow of government money and financial systems.</li> <li><strong>Fastenal, MSC, Grainger, Snap-on</strong> - Industrial supply companies mentioned in the context of economic conditions and sales trends.</li> </ul>
Your Sh*t Stinks: Find Someone Who Agrees
Aug 6, 2024
<p><strong>"Find at least one person who is just really, really good at calling out your bullshit. Cause we all do it." -Daniel Hatke</strong></p> <p>Hello show notes readers,</p> <p>We covered two primary topics in this episode. One intuitively seems to be very important and valuable, <a href= "https://blacktuesdays.substack.com?utm_source=navbar&utm_medium=web"> Strategy Time</a>. The second has been this Clark Kent's yellow sun, my Personal Board of Directors.</p> <p>Why are they so helpful?</p> <p><strong>Bokonon on the Quest for Understanding</strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in;">Tiger got to hunt,</p> <p style="margin: 0in;">Bird got to fly,</p> <p style="margin: 0in;">Man got to sit and wonder, "Why, why, why?"</p> <p style="margin: 0in;">Tiger got to sleep,</p> <p style="margin: 0in;">Bird got to land,</p> <p style="margin: 0in;">Man got to tell himself he understand.</p> <p style="margin: 0in;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0in;">As always, thanks for listening. </p> <p style="margin: 0in;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0in;">-Sean </p>
Fourth Turnings Are Hard (to Predict)
Jul 22, 2024
<p>Hello dear listener,</p> <p>This episode was originally recorded in June but it's release was delayed by, we'll say, a bit of weather. Sadly, I need <em>both</em> internet and power to make the publishing magic happen. Dan and I appreciate your patience. Anyway, onto the show notes!</p> <p>Hearts,</p> <p>Sean</p> <p> </p> <p>Recommendations</p> <p>Dan recommends <span style= "text-decoration: underline;">Factfulness</span> by Hans Rolling, saying "if you want to feel good about the world that we live in and the time that you live in, backed by data, read the book." Sean plans to check it out. </p> <p>Sean picked up <span style= "text-decoration: underline;">Red Notice</span> by Bill Browder based upon Dan's recommendation. Other than some boring details on company valuations in the post-Soviet era, it is a gripping story of evolution of the Russian society and a deep look into the problems lurking within its government. </p> <p>We referenced <span style="text-decoration: underline;">The Fourth Turning is Here</span>, again. We heartily recommend this book and are currently working through it's predecessor <span style="text-decoration: underline;">The Fourth Turning.</span> Expect a very special episode about this book, sometime before the first Tuesday in November. </p> <p> </p> <p>Updates</p> <p>We asked "will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) get sued?" We said yes. The answer <em>is </em>yes. We missed what he's done with $CHWY. </p> <p>Elon got paid!</p> <p>Interest rate futures markets, the unreliable beasts they are, have moved to predicting two cuts in 2024. </p>
Predictions and Jackasses
Jun 26, 2024
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="6op4p" data-offset-key="3j8ng-0-0"> <div class= "public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3j8ng-0-0"><span data-offset-key= "3j8ng-0-0"><span data-text="true">Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. Dan has been off traveling to visit his team in North Carolina, so we're releasing something we had conveniently prepared for such an occasion. </span></span></div> </div> <div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="6op4p" data-offset-key="771cb-0-0"> <div class= "public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="771cb-0-0"> </div> <div class= "public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="771cb-0-0"><span class= "hardreadability"><span data-offset-key= "771cb-0-0"><span data-text="true">Back in January, we sat down and made a bunch of predictions for things</span></span></span> <span class="qualifier"><span data-offset-key= "771cb-1-0"><span data-text="true">we think</span></span></span> <span class="hardreadability"><span data-offset-key= "771cb-2-0"><span data-text="true">are important to the American Economy</span></span></span><span data-offset-key= "771cb-3-0"><span data-text="true">. Now we are sharing them with you, so you can see how we did.</span></span></div> <div class= "public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="771cb-0-0"> </div> <div class= "public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="771cb-0-0"><strong><span data-offset-key= "771cb-3-0"><span data-text="true">An Incomplete List of Topics Covered</span></span></strong></div> <div class= "public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="771cb-0-0"> <ul class="css-h4c1sf"> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Prostate health.</span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> How the language used by the Federal Reserve can have a significant impact on the markets.</span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> No recession in 2024.</span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The potential impact of tariffs and the strength of the U.S. dollar on industries like energy and manufacturing.</span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The power of belief and manifestation in shaping outcomes. </span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The ESG market's risks and challenges: we're due for a scam.</span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Regenerative farming practices.</span></li> <li><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The carbon footprint of electric vehicles (not as good as you think)</span></li> </ul> </div> </div>
The Passive Storm
Jun 9, 2024
<p>This week, Sean and Dan breakdown their thoughts on investing actively vs. passively. </p> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">00:00</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Introduction and Discussion on Investing Preferences</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">12:46</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Passive Investing: Investing in Diversified Portfolios</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">26:47</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Active vs. Passive Investing</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">27:44</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Benefits of Passive Investing</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">30:10</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Importance of a Healthy Cash Position</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">32:18</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Active Investing in Specific Industries or Market Opportunities</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">36:00</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Magnetism of Active Investing</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">43:09</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Potential Risks of a Purely Passive Market</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">46:46</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Possibility of Outperforming the Market with Active Investing</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">52:10</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Potential Drawbacks of Passive Investing</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">56:35</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Impact of Passive Investing on the Market</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">01:04:19</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Challenges of Outperforming the Market as an Active Manager</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">01:06:11</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> The Emergence of Alternative ETFs</span></div> <div class="MuiBox-root css-4cps79 e1de0imv0"><span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-helper css-v8n4dg e1de0imv0">01:13:05</span> <span class= "MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-bodyMedium css-1lit4es e1de0imv0"> Debating the Effectiveness and Sustainability of Passive Investing</span></div> <p>Here's some of the material we consumed to help prep for this episode, for those who want to dig deeper:</p> <p>AQR Capital Management. (2018, April). <em>Active and passive investing — the long-run evidence</em>. Alternative Thinking. https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Alternative-Thinking/Alt-Thinking-2Q18-Active-vs-Passive-Investing.pdf</p> <p>Faber, M., & Asness, C. (2024, April 5). <em>Episode #527: Cliff Asness - Timely & Timeless Investment Wisdom</em>. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/04/05/cliff-asness/</p> <p>Faber, M., & Bessembinder, H. (2024, May 3). <em>Episode #532: Hendrik Bessembinder - do stocks outperform T-bills?</em>. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/05/03/hendrik-bessembinder/</p> <p>Faber, M., & French, K. (2024, May 1). <em>Episode #530: Professor Kenneth French on risk, return, and rationality</em>. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/04/19/kenneth-french/</p> <p>Gabaix, X., & Koijen, R. S. (2021). In search of the origins of financial fluctuations: The inelastic markets hypothesis. <em>National Bureau of Economic Research</em>, <em>28967</em>. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28967</p> <p>Hoffstein, C., & Green, M. (2022, May 29). <em>S05E01: Michael Green - The active impact of passive investing</em>. Flirting with Models. https://www.flirtingwithmodels.com/2022/05/29/s05e01-the-active-impact-of-passive-investing/</p> <p>Mandelbrot, B., Hudson, R. L., & Olazabal, J. (2019). <em>The misbehavior of markets: A fractal view of financial turbulence</em>. Hachette Audio.</p> <p>Ritholtz, B., & Einhorn, D. (2024, February 8). <em>Masters in Business: David Einhorn</em>. Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-02-08/masters-in-business-david-einhorn-podcast</p> <p>Taleb, N. N. (2016). <em>Fooled by randomness</em>. Random House.</p> <div> </div> <p> </p>
Getting to Know Sean
May 27, 2024
<p class="MsoNormal">Hello!</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Welcome to Unqualified Advice an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. This week, join us for a pair of episodes meant to help you get to know us and to give us some practicing our interviewing skills.</p> <p>Connect with us on twitter and let us know how we're doing. Good or bad, we want to hear your feedback.</p> <p>Dan: https://twitter.com/danielhatke</p> <p>Sean: https://twitter.com/slowvsm</p>
Managing Remote Teams, Walmart v. Amazon
May 12, 2024
<p>Hello and welcome to Unqalified Advice.</p> <p>In this episode Dan talks about the challenges and nuances of managing a remote team in the Philippines. We look at the impact of the cost of living on operational decisions. </p> <p>We reflect on the personal and business challenges that come with entrepreneurship, including maintaining work-life balance and the isolation that can accompany working from home. </p> <p>Dan gives us a look inside what its like to sell products through Amazon and Walmart's online marketplace.</p> <p>Sean gives an update on Fig and we talk about reasons to consider tapping a retirement account.</p> <p>Topics</p> <p>00:00 Introduction and Casual Chat<br /> 02:43 Technology Education in the Philippines<br /> 09:09 Experiences and Challenges of Small Business Owners<br /> 16:20 Walmart as a Competitor to Amazon<br /> 29:22 The Challenges of Investment Advisory and Personal Finance<br /> 40:25 Improving Subscription Management for a Seamless Experience<br /> 43:53 The Hidden Dangers of Worms and Parasites</p> <p> </p> <p>Connect with us on twitter and let us know how we're doing. Good or bad, we want to hear your feedback.</p> <p>Dan: https://twitter.com/danielhatke</p> <p>Sean: https://twitter.com/slowvsm</p> <p> </p>