The Catalog
Episodes
123 episodes across YouTube and podcast platforms.
55:52There Is No Such Thing As Free Admission
Jul 20, 2026
Talking to God for a Couple of Days I came into this one fresh from a roaring World Cup fan fest in Houston where Team USA put four past Paraguay and I found a new third place. Dan and I dig into what that communal energy actually costs: who pays for security (FEMA and Texas, which means we already did), who profits (FIFA), and why it's so hard to build that shoulder-to-shoulder feeling in a country designed for cars. We wander from European piazzas to American sprawl to whether self-driving cars quietly make sprawl worse, and land on the third place — how fragile and expensive it's become to just be around other people. Then it's a proper grab-bag: the great game of mega-event ticket pricing (you can't repeal supply and demand, no matter how unfair $10k nosebleeds feel), the SpaceX IPO I missed by four days (tiered lockouts, $2T at 100x sales, voting with your heart vs. weighing with your head), and Dan's lockout-timed options play. And then the part that named the episode: for about two days, a handful of institutions got their hands on Fable — the nerfed-and-released version of Anthropic's Mythos model — before the government clawed it back. Dan torched ~$18k of tokens in 48 hours. We get into treating a model like a munition, why diffusion happens anyway, and why we're both tempted to just put a box in the basement and run a model we own. The model is the commodity; the hardware is the value. Cheers — and go build something that lets you touch more grass. Sean BOOKS DISCUSSED Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre Book: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator Author: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Lef%C3%A8vre LINKS & REFERENCES Maxinomics — the Live Nation/Ticketmaster antitrust breakdown Dan recommends https://www.youtube.com/@Maxinomics 2026 FIFA World Cup — 104 matches, June 11–July 19, 2026 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup Triple Crown of Motorsport — Monaco GP, Indy 500, Le Mans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Crown_of_Motorsport UNQUALIFIED FACT-CHECK 🟡 "Goes through July eleventh, a hundred and four games." The match count is right (104), but the tournament runs June 11–July 19, 2026 (final at MetLife). "Almost a month" is correct — it's about five and a half weeks. 🟡 "FIFA's gonna rake in about twelve billion." In the ballpark: tournament revenue estimates are ~$9–11B; the full 2023–2026 cycle is near $13B. $12B blends the two. 🟢 "The first eighth and the last eighth are always the most expensive." Correctly attributed to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Don't try to catch the exact bottom or top. 🟢 "The Triple Crown is Monaco, Indy, and Le Mans." Correct. Graham Hill is still the only driver to win all three. 🟢 "Porsche put the ignition on the left so drivers could start while running to the car." True — a genuine nod to the old Le Mans running starts. 🟢 "Mercedes left Le Mans after their car went airborne." True — after the CLR flipped at speed in 1999, Mercedes pulled its prototype effort. 🟡 "Amazon and Facebook had 80–90% drawdowns." Directionally true and a great point, but loose: Amazon did fall ~90%+ and recover; Meta's worst stretches were closer to ~50–75%. The lesson holds; the matching percentages don't. 🟡 "Toby Lütke races an LMP2 car on a bronze license." Lütke is a real, serious amateur racer, so the spirit's right; the exact class/license detail we'd want to confirm. Note: the SpaceX IPO mechanics and the Fable/Mythos/Project Glasswing storyline were live and fast-moving — treat the specific numbers as our best read on the day, not gospel. Score: 5 🟢 / 4 🟡 / 0 🔴. A clean week — the misses are date-and-decimal stuff, not blown calls.
55:42No Movies About the Maintenance Team
Jun 22, 2026
The Averaging Machine Dan's wife and kids were off camping leaving him time to watch the whole of Glengarry Glen Ross in a single sitting. Why does nobody make movies like that anymore? Scale homogenizes. Once a film has to sell in China and Germany and everywhere at once, it gets sanded down to the middle. Dan claims that AI is the same kind of averaging machine globalization always was. I say the same corporate dispersion that flattens taste also spreads it. I pulled into a new Chinese chain half a mile from the plant in Texas, sat down, and it tasted exactly like what I ate in Chengdu. You don't get that without a machine pushing it outward. Homogenization and discovery are the same engine running in two directions. The back half turned macro. Dan walked through his Amazon Prime Day strategy: pulling ads to zero while everyone else bids each other into the ground, taking a worse revenue number for a much better profit one. You win by managing the downside, not chasing the upside. Then the paper-cuts of inflation: a little tariff, a little fuel, a little Hormuz, and a tungsten-carbide problem most people will never hear about that's quietly tripling my industry's tooling costs. Each piece feels transitory, but what if the sum is sticky? Which got us to Warsh taking the Fed chair and a genuinely fun thought experiment: if today's inflation is mostly a supply-side problem, does hiking rates actually make it worse? Go build something this week. — Sean SHOWS / FILMS DISCUSSED Glengarry Glen Ross (1992) — dir. James Foley, written by David Mamet; Lemmon, Pacino, Baldwin, Harris, Arkin, Spacey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glengarry_Glen_Ross_(film) A Few Good Men (1992) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Few_Good_Men The Hunt for Red October (1990) — referenced for Baldwin's prime https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hunt_for_Red_October_(film) Scent of a Woman (1992) — referenced for Pacino's heavy-hitting years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scent_of_a_Woman_(1992_film) LINKS & REFERENCES YGF Malatang, Katy TX — the YangGuoFu spot Sean stopped at https://www.ygfmalatangkaty.com/ Derek Thompson — AI-and-cognition interview https://www.derekthompson.org/ Dan Wang, Breakneck — America as a "lawyerly state" https://danwang.co/ Kevin Warsh — newly confirmed Fed Chair https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warsh Berkshire invests $10B more in Alphabet (CNBC, June 2026) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/berkshire-hathaway-alphabet-investment.html The midwit meme (IQ bell curve) https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/iq-bell-curve-midwit Chinese tungsten prices surge on export controls (Fastmarkets) https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/chinese-tungsten-product-prices-surge-2025-export-controls-fresh-demand/ UNQUALIFIED FACT-CHECK We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 The Glengarry Glen Ross roll call. Lemmon, Pacino, Baldwin, Harris, Arkin, Spacey, Pryce. All correct. One room and a lot of rain, so the actors were the budget. 🟢 Baldwin "after Hunt for the Red October," Pacino "Scent of a Woman timeframe." Both sharp. Hunt for Red October (1990) had Baldwin as Jack Ryan; Scent of a Woman (1992) is the same year as Glengarry and won Pacino his Oscar. 🟡 "54 cents of every dollar goes to Amazon." Dan flagged he's more efficient. The widely-cited figure (Marketplace Pulse) is that Amazon's total take — referral + FBA + storage + ads — reaches up to ~50% of seller revenue. 54% is plausible for a large-seller sample, a hair above the headline; it's per-seller-revenue, not per-consumer-dollar. 🟢 China is "playing with the APT market" and carbide costs spiked. Correct, and Sean was conservative. China's tungsten export controls hit Feb 4, 2025; Chinese tungsten prices rose 200%+ through 2025 and the European APT benchmark was up ~557% by March 2026. His "3x since August" understates it. 🟢 Warsh is confirmed and in the seat. Senate confirmed him 54–45 on May 13, 2026; sworn in replacing Powell. He's a Hoover Institution fellow, so the interview checks out. 🟢 Berkshire put ~$10B into Google, a small slice of cash. Confirmed (CNBC, June 1, 2026), bringing the total Alphabet stake to ~$26.6B. The "$400 in your pocket, invest $10" analogy holds; "free call option on AI" is a fair read. 🟡 "Donut theory" of interest rates. Sean admitted he couldn't recall the source. No established term by that name, but the intuition overlaps with neutral-rate (r-star) reasoning and the fiscal channel. Scoring the instinct as defensible, the label as a Sean original. Final Score: 5 🟢, 2 🟡, 0 🔴.
50:20Gone Building
Jun 15, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! This week I ask Dan if he's been building anything lately, and we spend the hour discussing the ins and outs of building new tools and products. Two guys, exploring niches. That's the whole episode. Dan is launching Kabu (kabu research on Substack, link below) — a paid newsletter and model portfolio centered on small/mid-cap Japanese equities, anchored on the post-Shinzo-Abe governance reforms and ~2,000 names nobody covers in English. We get into tier pricing, what makes a paid Substack worth paying for, and the practical compliance hygiene around publishing investment ideas (Dan reaching for Lowe v. SEC — the fact-check below rewards him for it). I fill Dan in on the real estate brokerage site I've been making for past guest and current business owner Lindsay Howard, and a property-tax-allocation audit tool I had a vision for. That kicks us into the bigger question hiding underneath: when one citizen with a laptop can audit a municipal budget, what changes? Dan is bullish on the ground-up version. We're both eyes-open about the pitchfork version. Carve-outs: How to Win a Trade War (Keynes & Bown — the pirate-ship / warship / merchant-ship taxonomy alone is worth it); Hamming's The Art of Doing Science and Engineering on AI and human uniqueness; and Patrick Radden Keefe's London Falling, The Snakehead, and the Wind of Change podcast. Go build something this week. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed How to Win a Trade War by Soumaya Keynes and Chad P. Bown https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/How-to-Win-a-Trade-War/Soumaya-Keynes/9781668221310 The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn by Richard Hamming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_Doing_Science_and_Engineering London Falling by Patrick Radden Keefe https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/704979/london-falling-by-patrick-radden-keefe/ The Snakehead by Patrick Radden Keefe https://www.patrickraddenkeefe.com/ Links & References Maxinomics on YouTube (Phil Andrews) https://www.youtube.com/@Maxinomics Kabu Research on Substack — Dan's Japanese equities newsletter https://kaburesearch.substack.com/ Citrini Research https://www.citrini.com/ Wind of Change podcast (Patrick Radden Keefe) https://www.pineapple.fm/wind-of-change Unqualified Fact-Check 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 SLB rebrand ~4 years ago. Schlumberger became SLB in Oct 2022. 🟢 Hamming worked on the Manhattan Project. Confirmed — Los Alamos 1945, then Bell Labs 1946. Turing Award 1968 for error-correcting codes. 🟢 Wind of Change is real. Keefe, Pineapple Street Studios, 2020, eight episodes on whether the CIA helped write the Scorpions song. 🟡 5% of US tractor-trailers are flatbeds. ATA / FTR data puts the share at 5–8% depending on the cut. Directionally right. (Also: it's Maxinomics, not "Maximomics." Phil Andrews, not "Max.") 🟡 France requires 75% of your estate to your kids. The réserve héréditaire scales: 50% for one, 66% for two, 75% for three or more. Dan's directional point is right; the math is off. 🟡 "You can't trade ten days after publishing — Lowe v. SEC." Right case. Lowe v. SEC, 472 U.S. 181 (1985) established that bona fide investment newsletters aren't "investment advisers" under the 1940 Act — the §202(a)(11)(D) publisher exemption that shields kabu research, Citrini, TSOH. Lowe itself doesn't set a 10-day window; that's the compliance hygiene publishers observe to stay within the exemption. Companion anti-scalping doctrine: SEC v. Capital Gains Research Bureau (1963). Dan's instinct (pre-publish exits) is what keeps you protected. 🟡 "Chad Brown." It's Chad P. Bown (no E). Sean's forgiven. 🟢 The Snakehead covers Cheng Chui Ping (Sister Ping) and Chinatown smuggling 1984–2000, with the 1993 Golden Venture grounding as the inflection. Keefe, Doubleday, 2009. Final Score: 4 green, 4 yellow, 0 red. Dan had the right case (Lowe v. SEC) — the transcript robot just heard "low V SEC" first.
50:23Frameworks in the Atom Economy
Jun 4, 2026
This week Dan and I open on Jensen Huang's leather jacket on the Anchorage tarmac and slide into what actually happened at the Trump–Xi summit. The deliverable was frameworks, not specifics: no signed deals, but a tentative agreement to stand up a bicameral US-China trade council to replace what we ended up calling "trade agreements by tweet." Underneath the framework talk is the admission. The US and China formalizing a direct two-party institution with Russia visibly excluded — "you're a menace, but you ultimately don't matter" — reads as the moment somebody said the bipolar world out loud. The choke-point math makes it real: 20 percent of global oil through Hormuz, half of global container traffic through Taiwan, and the UAE laying pipe to route around the first one. From there we end up building material for our Promethean candidate. Dan introduces a frame I think we'll be reaching for again: the atom economy. The bits era is over; atoms are next. Energy grid, sensor networks, smart-cooling infrastructure as the public-infrastructure backbone everyone plugs into. I revive the six-year single-term presidency idea, this time with industrial-policy continuity as the rationale. Then somehow we wind up in the deep dark forest of US sales tax administration. Dan files 48 times a month across nested Colorado jurisdictions. We wander through Abe Campbell's tax-overhaul tweet, Charlie Munger's "show me the incentives," and a serious-but-still-speculative pitch for a federal sales tax with tiered consumption rates — zero on staples, escalating to a hundred on Birkin bags. Thanks for sticking with us. Go build something. — Sean Books Discussed Why Nothing Works by Marc J. Dunkelman https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/marc-j-dunkelman/why-nothing-works/9781541700215/ Companies Discussed Nvidia, Walmart, Intuit, H&R Block, TurboTax, Nest (Google), Rolex, Hermès LINKS & REFERENCES EIA petroleum chokepoint analysis: https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints Tang ping / lying flat: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping US Census — Trade in Goods with China: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html SBA Office of Advocacy: https://advocacy.sba.gov/ E-Estonia (digital government): https://e-estonia.com/ Charlie Munger — "show me the incentives": https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger UNQUALIFIED FACT-CHECK 🟢 Hormuz ≈ 20% of global oil Sean (~04:20): "the Strait of Hormuz… is 20% of the global oil supply." Per EIA, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids trade passes through Hormuz. Right neighborhood. 🟡 Strait of Taiwan ≈ 50% of global container traffic Sean (~04:20): "50% of the global container traffic passes through the Strait of Taiwan." Roughly half of the global container fleet does transit the Strait, but the more commonly-cited global trade chokepoint by value is the Strait of Malacca (~25–30%). Defensible by ship-count; the framing can be misread. 🟢 Tariff trajectory: 47.5% from May-2025 peak ~127% Sean (~05:18). Tracks with Peterson Institute and Tax Foundation effective-rate trackers. Within rounding. 🟢 2026 is year-1 of the 15th Five-Year Plan Dan via Google AI Overview (~12:21). Correct — 14th plan ran 2021–2025; 15th runs 2026–2030. 🟡 China youth unemployment "like 25%" Dan (~14:08). The pre-2024 NBS series peaked at 21.3% in June 2023 before suspension. Under revised methodology, 2025 readings have run roughly 14–17%. Directionally correct; specific 25% was the pre-revision number. 🔴 "Funded through tariffs and property tax" pre-income-tax Sean (~41:25). Pre-1913 federal government was funded primarily through tariffs and excise taxes (whiskey, tobacco), not property tax. Property tax is largely state/local. Big idea correct, second category wrong. 🟡 "Early 19th century" growth in federal scope Sean (~41:37). Sean almost certainly meant early 20th century — the 16th Amendment was 1913. Verbal slip on the century; thrust is correct. 🟡 "44% of US GDP is small business" Sean / Dan (~32:05). SBA's most recent figure is ~43.5%. Close enough. 🟢 Federal government as the largest US employer Sean (~29:43). Walmart is the largest private employer (~1.6M); federal government is ~2.1M civilians plus ~1.3M active-duty military. Right in aggregate. Final Score: 5🟢 / 4🟡 / 1🔴 The geopolitical math holds up; the tax-history detour wanted one more pass.
48:42Canary in the Gig Mine
May 29, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! This week Dan and I sit with a question that's been quietly bothering both of us: have we all just gotten numb? Dan says it only takes three weeks to get numb to anything. I had to agree. Once we saw two data points for the same trend, the rest of the conversation flowed. If the standard warning system has gone quiet, what canaries are still working? We began to build a bellwether basket. Not Netflix (too sticky), not Amazon Prime (it delivers the diapers — that's a bottoming signal, not a stress signal), but the second-tier streaming subs (Paramount, HBO) where the swing voter actually shows up. Dan offered the cleanest signal of the episode: at DoorDash, don't watch order count — watch the delta between pickups and deliveries. When pickups maintain while deliveries fall, that's the belt actually tightening. I told Dan about my own confession — I hadn't watched grocery unit prices in twelve years and now I check them every trip. Dan said the same thing started for him about eighteen months ago. We are, apparently, our own data points. We shifted to the macro question: US debt now exceeds GDP for the first time since 1946. Japan's been over 200% for a long time, so it's not unprecedented, but it does narrow the policy options. Dan and I came down hard on the same side: you don't coupon your way out of this — you grow your way out. Thanks for sticking with us through a slightly more diagnostic episode than usual. The numbness is real, but the signals are still out there if you know where to look. Creation fills, consumption drains. Go build something everybody. Sean Tools & Platforms Mentioned Federal Debt as % of GDP (FRED series GFDEGDQ188S) — the chart we walked https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S SEC EDGAR — the disclosure-data source for the bellwether-tracker idea https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml David Deutsch on Twitter — Dan recommends turning notifications on https://twitter.com/DavidDeutschOxf Links & References Federal Debt as % of GDP — the line we walked: 40% in 1942 → ~105% post-WWII → ~23% by 1974 → mid-90s peak ~90% → 2001 local bottom → 100.2% today https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S IMF Japan debt-to-GDP historical — for the comparison-case figures https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/JPN Trading Economics — Japan Government Debt to GDP (Dan's specific source) https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp Hilbert's Hotel / "infinity hotel" — the David Deutsch concept that came up again in passing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Grand_Hotel Unqualified Fact-Check 🟢 Sean (~03:16): "FRED, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Database… you can find data sets that go back 100 years in some cases." Correct. FRED is the canonical free macro-data archive; many series go back to the 1920s–1930s. Gas-price-as-percent-of-take-home-pay isn't a packaged series but is straightforwardly computable, and is directionally at multi-decade lows. 🟢 Sean (~33:30 → 37:00) US debt-to-GDP walk: "40% in 1942 → 105% by 1950 → 23% by 1974 → ~90% early 1990s → 2001 local bottom → 100.2% today." Strong. Aligns with FRED's GFDEGDQ188S series across the full range. The 23% trough and 100%+ today are both correct to within a point. 🟢 Dan (~37:17 → 37:51) Japan debt-to-GDP: "232 to 260% as of 2024 to 2025… high of 258 in 2020." Directionally accurate. IMF's gross-debt-to-GDP for Japan was ~257% in 2020 and is currently estimated 234–250% for 2025. Within 2–3 points of consensus. 🟡 Dan (~13:43): "Christmas isn't happening" prediction walk-back. This is an in-episode revision of Dan's May 2025 call from Calling All Mental Nomads (where he predicted "empty Christmas trees or $1,600 Nintendo Switches"). Dan revises on-mic: the prediction came in softer than forecast. Yellow rather than red because the prediction was explicitly flagged at the time as "directionally meant seriously," and Dan is now openly course-correcting. 🟢 Dan (~31:38): "You make a bad tweet [in the UK] and the police seem to be showing up your door." Real phenomenon. UK's Communications Act 2003 §127 and Public Order Act 1986 have been used to prosecute social-media speech in multiple high-profile 2024–2025 cases. 🟡 Sean (~10:43): "Caviar is on trend right now." Half-confirmed. Real TikTok/Instagram-driven caviar bump in 2024–2025 (Imperial Caviar, The Cure Company ran the social campaigns). Whether it's still peak-trend at recording date is the open question. 🟢 Dan (~30:19): "Never bet against humanity / never doubt human ingenuity." This is a running theme of the show — Dan explicitly flagged it on-mic as such. Promoted from UNSURE to Confirmed in the show's Canon RunningBits file. Final score: 5🟢 / 2🟡 / 0🔴. A diagnostic episode with no real errors — the macro figures are accurate, the directional claims hold up, and the only yellows are an in-show prediction revision and a "is this still hot?" trend question.
45:18Rules for Thee, Alpha for Me
Apr 27, 2026
# Two Hundred Bucks and a Stock Tip This week Dan and I sit with a question that has been bothering me for a while and got sharper this week thanks to a perfect natural experiment: a US Army NCO got charged for making four hundred thousand dollars on Polymarket betting on the Maduro raid he was part of. Around the same time, Senator Markwayne Mullin bought between fifteen and fifty thousand dollars of Chevron — the only US-listed company with Venezuelan oil operations — days before the same operation. The senator's position is up about twenty-two points over the S&P. The soldier is going to prison. The senator is going to a committee hearing. We get into why that gap exists, what the data on congressional trading actually shows, why the STOCK Act has a two-hundred-dollar fine and zero prosecutions in roughly a decade, and whether the answer is more rules or more sunlight. Spoiler: I came in believing one thing and Dan talked me partway out of it. We also fall down a few side roads — the French guy who spoofed a Polymarket weather contract by holding a hairdryer to the airport temperature sensor, the term-limits-and-lifetime-appointments question, and a riff about reading David Deutsch and Rory Sutherland in the same week. Dan plants a seed at the end about something we've both been wrestling with: what happens to investing when you bolt a probabilistic machine onto a deterministic one. That one's coming in a future episode. Thanks for sticking with us. Go build something. — Sean BOOKS DISCUSSED *The Beginning of Infinity* by David Deutsch — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beginning_of_Infinity *Alchemy* by Rory Sutherland — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alchemy_(book) *Money Stuff* (Bloomberg) by Matt Levine — https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/money-stuff TOOLS & PLATFORMS Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/ Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/ Capitol Trades: https://www.capitoltrades.com/ Quiver Quantitative: https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/ COMPANIES DISCUSSED Chevron (CVX), Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX, xAI, Cursor, US Steel, Renaissance Technologies, Citadel, Jane Street, AQR, Google Cloud LINKS & REFERENCES NANC ETF (Democratic Congress trades): https://unusualwhales.com/etf/NANC KRUZ ETF (Republican Congress trades): https://unusualwhales.com/etf/KRUZ Pelosi Tracker: https://pelositracker.app/ STOCK Act (2012) text: https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ105/PLAW-112publ105.htm PELOSI Act — Senate committee passage, July 2025: https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-advances-pelosi-act-to-ban-congressional-stock-trading-out-of-committee/ Ziobrowski (2004): https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/abs/abnormal-returns-from-the-common-stock-investments-of-the-us-senate/A39406479940758D59E09FDCB8EE9BEC Belmont et al. (2022) "Capitol Losses": https://j-hai.github.io/assets/pdf/capitol.pdf Hilbert's hotel (Deutsch reference): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Grand_Hotel UNQUALIFIED FACT-CHECK 🔴 Sean (~17:18): "Back before 2004 when they passed the Stock Act, I think it was 2004…" The STOCK Act was passed in April 2012, not 2004. The 2004 date is the Ziobrowski et al. study, which analyzed 1993–1998 Senate trading data and found ~85 basis points/month abnormal returns. Different document, ten years apart. The directional point — that congressional alpha looked larger before forced disclosure — is correct. 🟢 Sean (~09:43): NCO ranks in the Army max out at E-9 (Sergeant Major of the Army). Above that are warrant officers and commissioned officers. Sean was right (and explicitly asked us to fact-check this on-mic). 🟢 Sean (~12:08–12:23): NANC ~30% trailing 12-month, SPY ~25%, KRUZ ~18% — within a point on each. 🟡 Sean (~17:55): "Top decile of Congress trades at about plus 30% over every era." Directionally correct but oversold. The top decile significantly outperforms in every studied period; +30% is a rough approximation, varies by year. 🟢 Sean (~20:07): $200 STOCK Act fine and zero prosecutions since 2012. Correct on both counts. 🟡 Sean (~19:42): "Since 2014 late reports have been going up every year… 50 a year now." Trend direction correct; specific shape approximate. 🟢 Sean (~12:14): Mullin's Chevron trade: $15,001–$50,000, purchased Dec 29, 2025; up ~24% with SPY up ~3% over the same window. Correct. Final score: 1🔴 / 2🟡 / 4🟢. One-line summary: Strong on the data, sloppy on the date — the STOCK Act is a 2012 law, not a 2004 one, but the directional argument holds.
54:02Prometheus Politicking
Apr 20, 2026
Stealing Fire for the People Hello dear show notes readers! Dan's been thinking about Prometheus — not as a myth, but as a political archetype. The person who steals fire and hands it to the people is a very different animal than the one who steals it and keeps it for themselves. That framing runs underneath the whole hour. We start with Dan's top-down vs. bottoms-up read of American politics, wander through Christopher Alexander's A Pattern Language and what organic growth looks like (London streets vs. Manhattan grid, Dresden rebuilt block by block), and land on the labor market — where Dan drops the line that carries the rest of the episode: if people are in pain, they'll vote. The question is what they vote for. So we spent most of the hour sketching a reform menu — tax code, trade, safety net, government structure, civic fabric — and what candidate we'd actually want running on it. Burke shows up, as does the idea that representatives were supposed to be deliberators, not delegates. Somewhere around the 51-minute mark I asked Claude on-mic to stitch all of this into a candidate profile, which you'll find right below. Thanks for sticking with us. A little heavier than usual, and we think the weight is earned. Cheers, Sean "If people are in pain, they'll vote." THE PROMETHEAN CANDIDATE (v0.1) A first-pass profile of the candidate we'd actually want to vote for. Not a platform. A posture. Core disposition Deliberator, not delegate (per Burke) Organic, not imposed — comes from the community, not parachuted in Signals less, builds more Trade Regulatory parity on imports Strategic, not blanket, tariffs Honest about losers of trade liberalization, with real transition support Tax Code Radical simplification — fewer brackets, shorter forms Hostile to rent-seeking by tax-prep intermediaries Willing to raise revenue where the math demands it Safety Net A real floor with fewer strings No benefit cliffs Unemployment as lump-sum when it buys mobility, not weekly as distrust Housing supply treated as a safety-net issue Civic & Communal Fabric Mandatory year of service out of high school Tax incentives for physical gathering places (pubs, pickleball, civic clubs) Civic education reform, taken personally Not a platform of purity tests. Not a single-issue candidate. v0.1 — we'll steel-man it. PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL EDITS Structural changes that sit above the candidate level. These need amendment, statute, or a real constitutional moment. One six-year presidential term, no reelection Upper and lower age limits on office Sunset clauses on every bill touching the power of the purse Gerrymandering gone — districts follow geography, not incumbents Campaign advertising gated to a short window before the vote Books Discussed A Pattern Language by Christopher Alexander Book: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Pattern_Language Author: https://www.patternlanguage.com/ Links & References BLS Employment Situation (the jobs data behind Sean's charts): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm Edmund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol (1774): https://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s7.html Ray Oldenburg on third places (The Great Good Place): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Good_Place_(book) Prof G Markets — the Catherine Edwards interview Dan referenced: https://www.profgpod.com/ Intuit / TurboTax: https://www.intuit.com/ Unqualified Fact-Check 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 Burke really did say that Dan's attribution is textbook-accurate. From Burke's 1774 Speech to the Electors of Bristol. 🟢 BLS revisions are the real story Sean's chart and Dan's read match multiple quarters of labor data. Benchmark revisions have been consistently downward. 🟢 Third places — Ray Oldenburg Dan's attribution is correct — The Great Good Place (1989). 🔴 Intuit's market cap Sean said "10 to 20 billion." Actual is around $97–109B. Off by an order of magnitude. Larger point about tax-prep lobbying is accurate; the number was not. 🟡 Pattern Language as political metaphor Not something Alexander argues, but a fair extension of his framework. Final Score: 3 green, 1 yellow, 1 red One order-of-magnitude miss, one stretched-but-earned metaphor, and Burke holding the scorecard together.
57:15Sold Down the River
Apr 13, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, we started looking at the phrase "Sold down the river." The phrase's dark history goes back to the cotton gin, 1793, and the horrific expansion of slavery that followed. It was an unfortunate example of Jevons Paradox in action, which brought us our thread for the episode: when technology makes something more efficient, demand doesn't shrink — it explodes. Sound familiar? From there we pulled the lens forward to AI. Dan shared a data center bans tracker and the map of which states are welcoming vs. blocking this infrastructure is illuminating — the industrial North might be flipping into the hollowed-out NIMBY North while the Deep South booms. Then we jumped overseas — the Strait of Hormuz, Citrini Research's on-the-ground reporting, and Singapore's foreign minister on why the Strait of Malacca matters more than people think. Go get your hands dirty this week. Cheers, Sean *"The industrial North is flipped and it's going to be the industrial South and the hollowed out NIMBY North."* --- Shows/Films Discussed: *The Man in the High Castle* — Amazon series reimagining a world where Germany and Japan won WWII Tools & Platforms Mentioned: Data Center Bans Tracker https://www.datacenterbans.com/ Companies Discussed: OpenAI / Sam Altman, Nvidia, SpaceX / Starlink, BYD, Waymo, TSMC, Samsung, Amazon, Citrini Research, Walmart Links & References: Data Center Bans Tracker — Interactive US map tracking data center legislation by state https://www.datacenterbans.com/ Citrini Research — James Van Geelen's investment research firm; Strait of Hormuz field report now outside the paywall https://citriniresearch.com/ Jevons Paradox — The counterintuitive principle that efficiency gains increase total resource consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Cotton Gin and the Expansion of Slavery — Digital Public Library of America https://dp.la/primary-source-sets/cotton-gin-and-the-expansion-of-slavery Dan's Prometheus Dispatch — "The Tab" https://prometheusdispatch.substack.com/ --- Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 Cotton gin invented in 1793 I said Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin in 1793. Correct — he built his first prototype in 1793 and received his patent on March 14, 1794. 🟡 What the cotton gin actually does I described it as mechanizing "the sorting or the picking of the cotton bowls from the seeds and the husks." Close — the cotton gin separates cotton fibers from seeds using rotating teeth. No husks involved, and picking remained manual. 🟢 Jevons Paradox applied to the cotton gin Dan called it "the Jevons Paradox of the whole thing." Textbook application. William Stanley Jevons observed in 1865 that efficient steam engines led to more coal consumption — exactly what happened with cotton and enslaved labor. 🟡 Mississippi "state number 11" in reading after phonics Dan said Mississippi instituted phonics and became #11 in reading. The phonics story is real and the improvement dramatic. Exact ranking varies (9th-21st by source). Close enough. 🟡 Oregon spent "$11 billion extra" on education with declining scores Direction correct — Oregon dramatically increased spending while posting some of the lowest reading scores in the nation. The $11B figure appears overstated, but the point stands. 🟢 Strait of Hormuz narrowest point is 21 miles Confirmed — 21 nautical miles at its narrowest. 🟡 Strait of Malacca narrowest point is 2 miles Actually about 1.5 miles (2.8 km) at the Phillips Channel near Singapore. Close, and the point about it being tighter than Hormuz is correct. 🟢 Sam Altman's home was firebombed Confirmed — April 10, 2026. Molotov cocktail thrown at his San Francisco home. Suspect arrested. 🟢 SpaceX data centers in space Confirmed — SpaceX filed FCC plans in January 2026 for orbital data center satellites. 🟢 TSMC in Arizona, Samsung in Texas Both confirmed — TSMC in North Phoenix, Samsung in Taylor, TX. 🟢 BONUS: Shad is indeed a fish Sean blurted "shad" instead of "shall" and claimed it's a fish. Correct — shad are herring-family fish with about 30 species worldwide. Take a lap, Sean Final Score: 7 green, 4 yellow, 0 red Strong showing. The Jevons Paradox callout was chef's kiss, and even the ad-lib fish taxonomy was on point.
1:02:10Because Molecules
Apr 2, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, Dan and I dove headfirst into the Hormuz Strait crisis — and what started as a conversation about oil prices turned into something much bigger. The strait went from 120 ships a day to about 5. That's not a typo. And the cascade from that single chokepoint touches everything from the gas in your car to the chips in your phone to whether your local hospital can run an MRI. Dan brought charts this week, and we walked through the shale revolution numbers — we're producing three times the oil we were in 2000 with fewer rigs. But then we got into helium, and that's where things got uncomfortable. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium, the Ras Laffan facility got hit by missiles, and helium is critical for semiconductors, MRI machines, and rockets. Oh, and the US used to have a strategic helium reserve. We sold it off. We gamed out scenarios from Iran's toll booth regime to China's potential power play, I introduced "risk washing," and we closed on something I keep coming back to: never bet against ingenuity. The only way out is through. Cheers, Sean --- Links & References Gavekal Research: "Shattered Assumptions and the Energy Quandary" https://research.gavekal.com/article/shattered-assumptions-and-the-energy-quandary/ Odd Lots: "Now There's a Helium Shortage and It Affects More Than Balloons" https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-odd-lots-30972803/episode/now-theres-a-helium-shortage-and-it-affects-more-than-balloons-328227009/ Odd Lots: "The Petrochemicals Shock That's Already Rippling Through Plastics" https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-odd-lots-30972803/episode/the-petrochemicals-shock-thats-already-rippling-through-plastics-327997117/ Brookings: "Why Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz matters" https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-irans-disruption-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-matters/ Fortune: Larry Fink's "$40 or $150 oil" interview https://fortune.com/2026/03/25/larry-fink-iran-war-oil-prices-two-extremes-recession-growth/ --- Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 Strait of Hormuz traffic collapse Sean said ship traffic dropped from "about 120 a day" to "about 5 a day." Maritime intelligence firm Windward confirms ~120 daily transits pre-conflict, and tracking data shows as few as 5 per day by late March. Nailed it. 🟢 Brent crude 2008 peak Dan said Brent peaked at "148-149" in 2008. The actual peak was ~$145-148 per barrel in July 2008. Close enough. 🟡 US oil production: 14.5 million barrels per day Dan said US production was "about 14.5 million barrels a day at end of 2025." The EIA reports 13.6 million bpd. About 900K barrels high — but the growth story from ~5.8M in 2000 is completely right. 🟡 Drilling laterals: 2,500 feet in 2000 to 11,000 today Dan said average lateral length went from 2,500 ft to 11,000 ft. Current Permian averages are ~10,500+ ft, so 11K is close. The trajectory is right even if the starting point is fuzzy. 🟡 $2 million toll per ship Sean reported Iran is charging "$2 million" per vessel. Widely reported but unverified. Sean flagged his own uncertainty — self-awareness earns you a yellow. 🟢 3x production with fewer rigs Dan said we're producing "three times the amount" with "20-30% fewer rigs." Production went from ~5.8M to ~13.6M bpd, and rig counts have declined from early-2000s peaks. The productivity story is real. 🟡 Helium reserve sold for $1.4 billion Dan said the reserve "cost $1.4 billion, sold for $1.4 billion." The reserve had $1.4B in debt by 1995; Congress directed the sell-off under the Helium Privatization Act of 1996. Dollar amounts roughly right, framing oversimplified. Final Score: 3 green, 4 yellow, 0 red Solid outing. The energy numbers held up, the macro story is right, not a bad outing.
53:21The Rich Dentist and the Housing Divide
Mar 30, 2026
## Hello dear show notes readers! We predicted a private credit scandal 14 months ago on Episode 22. This week, Boaz Weinstein and Saba Capital showed up with tender offers at a 35% discount, Blue Owl is gating redemptions, and the whole space is cracking. We break down what BDCs are, why a "rich dentist" should read his mail more carefully, and whether credit is the canary or the accelerant. Dan makes the case that hedge funds are actually good for society (seriously), we detour through a fake Alan Watts lecture that fooled Dan for 18 whole minutes, and then we do live mortgage math that'll make you flinch: $180K take-home to afford a starter home. Housing, populism, takers and matchers, and why the only solution for pain might be other pain. Cheers, Sean --- ## Books Discussed *Indistractable* by Nir Eyal — https://www.nirandfar.com/indistractable/ Nir Eyal's new book on belief (just hit NYT bestseller list) *Prometheus Rising* by Robert Anton Wilson — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheus_Rising *Give and Take* by Adam Grant — https://adamgrant.net/book/give-and-take/ ## Shows Discussed The Big Short — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/ The Mandalorian — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8111088/ Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096928/ ## Tools & Links Claude — https://www.anthropic.com Money Stuff Podcast (Boaz Weinstein episode) — https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1308-money-stuff-the-podcast-164725399/episode/boaz-weinstein-327447282/ Michael Green's "$140K Poverty Line" analysis — https://fortune.com/2025/11/29/poverty-line-140000-political-rage-affordability-crisis-inflation-cost-of-living/ Episode 22: "Showing off Our Big Shiny Crystal Balls" — https://rss.libsyn.com/shows/513538/destinations/4404023.xml --- ## Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it --- 🟢 The Ep 22 private credit prediction Sean predicted in January 2025 that private credit would see a sizable scandal within the year. Fourteen months later, Blue Owl is gating redemptions and Saba is making activist tender offers. The form was different (structural vs. fraud) but the call landed. 🟡 Blue Owl saw "7-8% redemption rate" Sean said about 7-8%. The standard quarterly cap is 5%, but actual redemption requests for OTIC spiked to ~15% of NAV. The specific number is off, but the point — that requests exceeded the cap — is correct. 🟡 Saba offered at a "35% discount" The actual offer was $3.80/share for OBDC II, a 34.9% discount to NAV. Close enough. 🟢 "The average home is now over 400" Median existing-home price was $398K as of Feb 2026, but median for all homes including new construction was $429K. Spirit of the claim is right. 🟡 Energy was "20-30% of the S&P" vs. "5-6% today" Energy peaked at ~28% of the S&P 500 in the early 1980s (accurate). Current weight is 3.6%, not 5-6%. Directionally strong, specifics slightly off on the current figure. 🟢 Michael Green's "$140K poverty line" Michael W. Green (Simplify Asset Management) published this analysis in late 2025, calculating $136,500-$150,000 as a revised poverty threshold. Spot on. 🟡 "You need to double your income" post-2022 Combining 40-50% payment increase from rate jump plus 30-40% price appreciation gets you to 80-100% more income needed in worst-case metros. "Double" is the upper bound, not the average. 🟡 Sean's rate is "right at, right above two" Sub-2.5% 30-year fixed rates existed in late 2020 / early 2021 for well-qualified borrowers who refinanced aggressively. Plausible. --- Final Score: 3 green, 5 yellow, 0 red Solid showing. The private credit prediction payoff is the headline, and the live mortgage math was impressively close for two guys doing arithmetic on a Saturday morning. --- ## Chapters - 00:00 - Cold Open / Intro - 01:47 - Is Being Early the Same as Being Wrong? - 02:08 - The Private Credit Prediction Comes True - 06:00 - Boaz Weinstein and the Rich Dentist - 09:30 - Why Should a Normal Person Care About Private Credit? - 14:15 - Every Great Company Was Also a Fraud - 17:46 - Are Hedge Funds Actually Good for Society? - 21:02 - Nir Eyal and the Power of Belief - 24:10 - AI-Generated Content: The Fake Alan Watts Lecture - 26:19 - The Housing Divide: You Missed Your Window - 30:00 - Takers, Matchers, and the Politics of Resentment - 34:45 - Live Math: What It Actually Costs to Buy a Starter Home - 38:50 - The Rate Lock-In Trap - 41:03 - Can the Market Solve Housing? - 45:25 - This Is Tearing Us Apart: The K-Shaped Economy - 49:45 - The Only Solution for Pain Is Other Pain - 52:00 - Agency, Fourth Turnings, and Planting Trees - 54:01 - Wrap-Up: Grow the Pie
1:08:14The Economics of Power (And It's Not Money)
Mar 23, 2026
##Hello dear show notes readers! We opened with a simple question — how's the oil market? — and it unraveled into one of the most complex cascade conversations we've had. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, refinery shutdowns you can't just restart (I worked in a chem plant for two years, trust me on this), LNG supply to Taiwan, and the quiet bomb nobody's talking about: helium. From there we pivoted to Iran's leadership crisis and why military planning didn't account for the enemy punching back, then took a walk through 1929 — radio stocks, RCA mania, margin lending to people who had no business in the market, and why some of those dynamics rhyme uncomfortably with today's AI boom. Geopolitics, markets, history, and whether we're planning for any of this or just stepping on toys in the dark. Cheers, Sean --- 📚 Books Discussed *Dune* by Frank Herbert — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(novel) *1929* by Andrew Ross Sorkin — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_(book) *The Sympathizer* by Viet Thanh Nguyen — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sympathizer --- 🛠 Tools & Platforms Mentioned Riverside — Transcript editing platform Twitter / Substack — Referenced for analysis and ideas --- 🏢 Companies Discussed RCA — 1920s radio stock bubble SpaceX — Helium-free rocket engine innovation TSMC — Helium supply constraints, chip production Jabal Ali Free Zone (Dubai) — Manufacturing hub disrupted by Strait closure Silicon Valley Bank — Contrast with 1930s bank failures JP Morgan Chase — 1930s financial crisis Citi Bank — 1930s financial crisis --- 🔗 Links & References 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis Helium Production Worldwide — U.S. Geological Survey https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/helium-statistics-and-information Taiwan Energy Mix 2026 — Taiwan Power Company https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/taiwan-energy-generation-and-storage Bank Failures During the Great Depression — Federal Reserve History https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking-panics-1930-31 Adam Grant on Givers, Matchers, and Takers https://adamgrant.net --- 🔍 Unqualified Fact-Check We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 Strait of Hormuz oil disruption scale Sean said 20-30 million barrels/day through the Strait. Correct — it handles ~20-21% of global daily supply. 🟡 Taiwan's LNG electricity dependency Sean said 40% from LNG. Actual figure is ~50.2% as of January 2026. Close but understated. 🟢 Helium supply concentration Dan cited 30-40% from the Persian Gulf. The geographic concentration risk is real — US and Qatar dominate global supply. 🟢 Lindbergh's flight timing Sean placed it "right around" the late-1920s speculation frenzy. Correct — May 1927, fueled the aeronautics boom. 🟡 1930s bank failures scale Sean said 500-600 banks. That was the pre-Depression annual baseline; 9,000+ failed between 1930-1933. The vulnerability point stands. 🟡 Iran protest casualties Dan said ~30,000. Credible estimates range 6,000-36,500 depending on source. High end but within range of independent reporting. 🟢 Refinery shutdown cascade logic Sean's explanation of repriming, catalyst damage, and weeks-long restarts is textbook correct, backed by his two years in a chem plant. Final Score: 4 green, 3 yellow, 0 red Strong week for two guys riffing on geopolitics, energy, and history without Google open. --- ⏱ Chapters 0:00 - Cold Open: Market Check-In 1:11 - The Strait of Hormuz Crisis 3:19 - Oil Supply, Refinery Shutdowns, and the Pump Analogy 5:02 - Global Energy Systems and LNG 9:22 - Helium: The Silent Supply Chokepoint 12:45 - SpaceX's Helium-Free Innovation 14:50 - The Toy in the Dark: Lack of Planning 17:00 - Data Centers, Kinetic Warfare, and Dune 31:05 - The 1929 Bubble: Radio, Aeronautics, and RCA 34:18 - Margin Trading Then vs. Now 36:29 - Bank Failures and the Great Depression 38:45 - Generational Psychology: WWI to Prohibition 40:14 - Financial Nihilism and the Housing Crisis 44:32 - Asset Prices, Deregulation, and Prop 13 53:00 - Estate Taxes and Forced Liquidation 56:59 - Adam Grant's Givers, Matchers, and Takers 58:00 - The Economics of Power 1:02:37 - Iran's Path Forward 1:04:00 - Closing
The Economics of Power
Mar 23, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, we opened with a deceptively simple question: how's the oil market? Turns out, the Strait of Hormuz isn't flowing oil, and that particular "simple" problem unravels into one of the most complex cascades of consequence we've talked about in months. We're talking supply chains, geopolitics, chip manufacturing, and yes — the helium problem nobody's talking about yet. I spent two years working in a chem plant. When Dan asked if priming a pump was a good analogy for what happens when you shut down energy infrastructure, I had to say yes. It's exactly what happens. You can't just turn these things back on like a light switch. The math is brutal. The timing is slow. The dominoes fall fast. We went deep on oil flows, LNG for Taiwan, the geopolitical chokepoint that is the Strait, and then — and this is where it gets interesting — we stumbled onto the real quiet bomb: helium. From there, we pivoted to Iran, leadership structure, and why our military planning didn't account for the enemy actually punching back. (Spoiler: "everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face.") Dan brought some really compelling nuance here, balancing legitimate concerns about military escalation with optimism about what comes next for the Persian people. It's complicated, but worth sitting with. Then we took a walk through 1929. Radio stocks, aeronautics, RCA going to the moon on speculation, margin lending extending to regular Americans who had no business being in the market, and then — the crash. The scary part? Some of those dynamics rhyme today with AI and tech. But we also noted the system has matured; we have guardrails now that didn't exist then. That doesn't mean we're safe, just safer. It was a grab bag of a conversation — geopolitics, markets, history, philosophy, and frustration. The kind of episode that leaves you thinking about cascades, second-order effects, and whether we're actually planning for any of this or just stepping on toys in the dark. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed • Dune by Frank Herbert — Cited as an allegory for current geopolitical supply chain crises ("the spice and Arrakis") • 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin — Sean is reading this account of the market crash and the Glass-Steagall era • The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen — Dan is currently reading this Tools & Platforms Mentioned • Riverside — Transcript editing platform (referenced by Sean in production context) • Twitter / Substack — Mentioned for various ideas and analysis encountered • Chamath Palihapitiya's ventures — Discussed as example of pump-and-dump schemes in modern era Companies Discussed • RCA — Radio stock bubble of 1920s • SpaceX — Innovation in helium-free rocket engines • TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) — Helium supply constraints, chip production • Jabal Ali Free Zone (Dubai) — Manufacturing hub disrupted by Strait closure • Silicon Valley Bank — Contrast with 1930s bank failures (one vs. hundreds) • JP Morgan Chase — Struggled through 1930s financial crisis • Citi Bank — Struggled through 1930s financial crisis Links & References • 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Wikipedia • Helium Production Worldwide — U.S. Geological Survey • Taiwan Energy Mix 2026 — Taiwan Power Company • Bank Failures During the Great Depression — Federal Reserve History • Adam Grant on Givers, Matchers, and Takers — Referenced framework for understanding human motivation in organizational contexts Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 Strait of Hormuz oil disruption scale Sean said "20 to 30 million barrels of product a day" flows through the Strait. The Strait of Hormuz actually handles about 20–21% of the world's daily oil supply, which translates to roughly 20–30 million barrels per day depending on demand. Sean nailed the scale. The disruption has been described as the largest since the 1970s energy crisis and the largest in the history of the global oil market, with Brent crude hitting $126 per barrel at peak. 🟡 Taiwan's LNG electricity dependency Sean said "40% of Taiwan's electricity from LNG." As of January 2026, Taiwan Power Company's generation mix actually shows natural gas (which includes LNG) at 50.2%. Taiwan is targeting a power generation mix of 50% natural gas, 27% coal, and 20% renewables by end of 2026. Sean was in the ballpark but slightly underestimated; it's closer to 50% now, not 40%. Close enough for riffing, but not quite right on the specific number. 🟢 Helium supply concentration Dan cited "30-40% of the world's helium supply" sourced from the Persian Gulf region. Global helium production data shows the United States produces about 42% of reported world total (81 million cubic meters in 2025), with Qatar the second-largest producer. The point about geographic concentration and strategic vulnerability is solid—Qatar and the US dominate, and disruption to either affects global supply severely. Dan's framing is essentially correct about the concentration risk. 🟢 Lindbergh's flight timing Sean referenced "Lindbergh had just kind of happened right around that time" in the context of the late-1920s speculation frenzy leading to the 1929 crash. Lindbergh's solo transatlantic flight occurred on May 20–21, 1927 — which is exactly "right around that time." The aeronautics boom it fueled was a real driver of 1920s stock speculation. Sean nailed this one. 🟡 1930s bank failures scale Sean said "five or 600 banks closing during the time," and I can see why the number felt uncertain. The actual figure: more than 9,000 banks failed between 1930 and 1933, with 4,000 suspended in 1933 alone. An average of about 600 per year during the 1920s, but the Depression was catastrophic. Sean was citing the pre-Depression baseline, not the Depression peak, which is a bit of a communication fumble but understandable given the casual context. The broader point (system was vulnerable, collapse was massive) is spot-on. 🟡 Iran protest casualties (January 2026) Dan said Iran "just murdered 30,000 protesters effectively" in January. The actual figures vary: state media reported 3,117 deaths, but multiple human rights organizations estimate between 6,000–36,500 depending on the source and counting methodology. Iran International reported over 36,500 killed; HRANA as of early February confirmed 7,015 deaths. Dan's number of 30,000 is within the range of credible estimates from independent sources (Reuters, The Guardian, Iran International reported 30,000-36,500), but it's on the higher end of the confirmed figures. We'll give him credit for citing credible estimates, but note that verification remains difficult due to Iran's internet shutdown. 🟢 Refinery shutdown cascade logic Sean's explanation of how shutting down a refinery creates a cascading problem—pumps emptying out, needing repriming in sequence, catalysts getting damaged if the wrong substance flows through, taking weeks to restart—is textbook correct. He backed this up with his personal experience working in a refinery for two years. This is solid technical knowledge. No notes. Final Score: 4 green, 2 yellow, 0 red Pretty strong week for two guys riffing on a complex week in geopolitics, energy, and history. We got the core dynamics right — supply chain vulnerability, strategic concentration, cascading effects — and even our historical references landed. That's how this works. Chapters • 00:00 — Cold Open: Market Check-In • 01:11 — The Strait of Hormuz Crisis • 03:19 — Oil Supply, Refinery Shutdowns, and the Pump Analogy • 05:02 — Global Oil and Energy Systems • 07:00 — Manufacturing & Dubai Disruption • 09:22 — Helium: The Silent Supply Chokepoint • 10:38 — Helium & Chip Manufacturing (The Chain Reaction) • 12:45 — SpaceX's Helium-Free Innovation • 14:50 — Lack of Planning: The Toy in the Dark • 16:02 — Venezuelan, Iranian, and Compute Dependencies • 17:00 — Data Center Strikes & Kinetic Warfare • 19:02 — Dune as Allegory • 31:05 — The 1929 Bubble: Radio, Aeronautics, and RCA • 34:18 — Margin Trading and Mass Speculation (Then vs. Now) • 36:29 — Bank Failures in the Great Depression • 37:03 — Why 2008 Might Be the Template • 38:45 — Psychology of Generations (WWI, 1918 Flu, Prohibition) • 40:14 — Financial Nihilism and the Housing Crisis • 42:00 — The Housing Deregulation Fight (Schatz vs. Warren) • 44:32 — Both Sides, Asset Prices, and the Boomer Problem • 46:35 — Trump's Deregulation Executive Order • 49:45 — California's Property Tax Lock-In (Prop 13) • 53:00 — Estate Taxes, Inheritance, and Forced Liquidation • 54:00 — Housing Supply vs. Political Solutions • 56:59 — Adam Grant's Givers, Matchers, and Takers • 58:00 — The Economics of Power • 59:00 — Logical Thinking and Predictable Outcomes • 1:02:37 — Iran's Path Forward (Dan's Optimism) • 1:04:00 — Closing: Wrapping the Conversation
1:03:49Hallucinations are Creativity
Mar 16, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! What if hallucinations — those supposedly broken AI outputs — are actually just creativity in disguise? Dan and I dig into that reframe and it changes how you work with these systems entirely. We cover Dan's recursive loop for wringing out errors, his autonomous agent (OpenClaw) that runs revenue reports, trades, emails, and daily reflections on a spare machine, the 100X engineer, Google's antitrust handcuffs, and the philosophy that you should want your employees to automate themselves into better work. If you've been curious about using AI beyond "ask it a question," this one's for you. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed The Giver by Lois Lowry — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Giver Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surely_You%27re_Joking,_Mr._Feynman! Shows Discussed Pluribus (Apple TV) — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt29755372/ Fallout Season 2 (Amazon) — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12623084/ Tools & Links Claude — https://www.anthropic.com Claude Code — https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/claude-code OpenClaw — Dan's autonomous agent framework Playwright — https://playwright.dev/ Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 Per Sean's in-episode request at 13:14 — this week's fact-check is written in the style of Charles Bukowski. You asked for it. look, they said some things. most people do. the difference is these two actually meant some of it. 🟢 = nailed it | 🟡 = close enough | 🔴 = whiffed it 🟢 Twitter laid off about 90% of staff Dan said Twitter got rid of 90% of all staff and they did fine. and he's right, more or less. Musk walked in and fired somewhere between 80 and 90 percent of the building. the tweets kept tweeting. the servers kept serving. whether "fine" is the right word depends on how you feel about the place now, but the lights stayed on. that part's true. sometimes the bar stays open even after you fire the bartender. 🟢 Google's 20% Time Sean said Google had 20% time on Fridays for a long time. they did. one day a week, go build whatever you want. Gmail came out of that. Google News too. it was the kind of policy that made you think maybe corporations had souls. they quietly killed it, of course. but for a while there, Fridays meant something. 🟢 Temperature controls randomness/creativity in LLMs Dan said you crank the temperature up for stories and down for code. he's right. temperature is the knob between chaos and precision. turn it up and the machine starts to dream. turn it down and it becomes an accountant. most of us live somewhere in the middle, but nobody writes poems about the middle. 🟡 The Giver plot summary Dan described a society where knowledge was compartmentalized, one old man carrying the weight of every memory so nobody else had to feel anything. that's Lois Lowry's book, more or less. Dan said he wasn't close enough to it anymore to remember the whole structure. fair enough. most of us aren't close enough to anything anymore. the analogy landed. the details were soft around the edges. partial credit, which is what life mostly is. 🟢 ERP limitations on custom scheduling Dan said their $4 billion ERP couldn't handle their scheduling because the process had nuances that sat just outside what the system could do. anyone who's ever worked inside a corporation just nodded. you spend the GDP of a small country on software and it still can't do the one thing you actually need it to do. that's not a claim that needs verification. that's just Tuesday. 🟢 Google's antitrust exposure constrained their AI moves Sean said Google had to wait for OpenAI to enter AI search before Google could go there, because moving first would look like leveraging their search monopoly into an adjacent market. he was working it out on the fly and even said "I'm gonna scrub this from the record." but the instinct was right. the legal concept is called monopoly leveraging— using dominance in one market to foreclose competition in another. Section 2 of the Sherman Act. the FTC's tying doctrine. real stuff. there's no specific ruling that says "Google must wait for a competitor to go first," but in August 2024 a federal court found Google maintained an illegal monopoly in search, and the September 2025 remedies banned their exclusive distribution deals for Search, Chrome, and Gemini. so yeah—Google's legal team absolutely would have known that charging into AI search unprovoked was handing the DOJ another exhibit. sometimes the smartest move a monopolist can make is to let somebody else walk through the door first. Sean got there. he just didn't trust himself enough to leave it in. Final Score: 5 green, 1 yellow, 0 red not bad for two guys talking into microphones about machines that dream. the facts held up. the stories were better. that's usually how it goes with the good ones.
Be Viciously Mediocre or... Get the F**** After It!
Feb 16, 2026
Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, the energy was all over the place — and we kind of loved it. Dan opens with a Jeremy Piven mantra about getting the f*** after it, and it turns out that's basically the thesis for the whole hour. We start in the Fourth Turning framework — Dan's been refining his theory that the turn itself has happened, and now we're watching the energies release into velocities that'll shape the new order. Heavy stuff, but it clicked for both of us this time around. From there we land on ICE enforcement, and Dan delivers what might be the sharpest framing we've had: you've hired ideological agents rather than rule-of-law agents. That sent us into Stasi territory, Ceaușescu's Romania, and a real question about whether a preference cascade is finally building. We take a breather with book talk (Dan's halfway through The Sympathizer and I'm looking for my next read), TV talk (Pluribus on Apple TV is a wild hive-mind premise from Vince Gilligan), and adventure talk (Alex Honnold free-climbed Taipei 101 and Dan once ran up it via stairs in 18 minutes). Dan tells a great Annapurna Base Camp story and we both agree that nothing makes you as hungry as altitude. Then it gets philosophical. We dig into AI and the next generation — Dan's fish-and-water analogy for kids growing up with these tools is going to stick with me. We talk about the failure to teach civics, the need to choose processes over outcomes, and why "mind coughing" (not mind comping) your ideas onto others is how change actually spreads. Mimetics, baby. The back half is a deep dive on generational power: Boomers hold 60 Senate seats despite being 24% of the population, three presidents were born in 1946, and a viral tweet about the $6K senior tax bonus captures the frustration perfectly. Sean calls nostalgia the most toxic of emotions; Dan says it's not even dirty fuel you can burn. We wrap with a conversation about AI deepfakes eroding trust, the printing press as a turning catalyst, and a close we're pretty proud of: go build something this week. Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for. Cheers, Sean Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟡 Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty Dan said "Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty." The 1951 agreement is a US-Denmark defense agreement that gave the US basing rights in Greenland (Thule Air Base). It is not a transfer of sovereignty. Greenland remains a Danish autonomous territory. The defense logic Dan cited is real — Greenland is strategically critical for US missile defense — but "ours" is a significant overstatement of what the treaty actually says. 🟢 Three presidents born in 1946: Clinton, Bush, Trump Sean said three presidents were all born in 1946. Confirmed. Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946), George W. Bush (July 6, 1946), and Donald Trump (June 14, 1946) were all born the same year — the first year of the Baby Boom. 🟡 Boomers hold 60 Senate seats / ~24% of population Sean looked this up live using AI during the show and cited 60 seats and 20–24% of the population. Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964) make up roughly 21–23% of the US population as of 2025. The 60-seat Senate figure is plausible for the 119th Congress but would benefit from verification against the latest roster, as retirements and special elections shift the count. The 3X overrepresentation point stands either way. 🟡 Taipei 101 climb took an hour and a half Dan said it took Honnold "an hour and a half to scale the outside." This should be verified against reporting. Dan's own stair run took 18 minutes, which he contrasts with the free-climb time. The broad point about it being a long, grueling ascent is reasonable. 🟡 Mt. Elbert is the tallest 14-er in Colorado Dan called it "Mount Albert" but clearly means Mt. Elbert (14,440 ft), which is indeed the highest peak in Colorado and the tallest 14-er in the Rockies. Sean catches the name in the transcript. The substance is correct; the name is garbled. 🟡 20–30% of New England heat from garbage and wood Sean attributed this stat to Javier Blas on Bloomberg. The general claim that New England has an unusually high reliance on heating oil, wood, and waste-to-energy relative to the rest of the US is well-documented. The specific 20–30% figure for garbage and wood during a cold snap should be verified against the actual Bloomberg data. Sean did note it was from a credible source and flagged his own uncertainty on details. Final Score: 1 green, 5 yellow, 0 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it.
50:38Welcome to Flow City
Feb 9, 2026
Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 90% healthcare / 10% education split on the California billionaire tax Sean said 90% goes to healthcare and 10% to education and food assistance. That's essentially correct. The actual text allocates 90% to healthcare and 10% to K-12 education, with some language around food assistance as well. Score one for Sean. 🟢 ~200 people affected Sean said the tax would impact about 200–300 people. Multiple sources (CalMatters, CBS News, SF Standard) consistently cite approximately 200–255 California billionaires. Right in the zone. 🟡 Prediction market odds: ~65% on ballot, ~40% to pass Sean cited roughly 65% odds of making the ballot and 40% of passing. Current Polymarket has the "on ballot" market at about 59–60%, and the "passes" market at 37–40% (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket ~30–40% range). His "pass" number was spot on. The "on ballot" number was a touch high but in the ballpark. We'll give him a yellow. 🟡 Trump's 2016 odds were "in the 30s" Dan said Trump's prediction market odds in 2016 were "in the 30s." PredictIt had Clinton at 80–82% on election night, meaning Trump was at 18–20%. FiveThirtyEight's model had Trump at about 29%. So depending on which source you pick, Trump was somewhere between 18–29% — more like the teens-to-high-twenties than the thirties. Close-ish. We'll give it a yellow for the 538 number being 29%. 🟡 8 million Venezuelans have fled Sean said "8 million people, I believe, from Venezuela that have fled the country" and then wondered if that was just in the US. The real number: approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide (per UNHCR). Only about 770,000 are in the United States. The 8 million worldwide number is right; attributing it to the US would be way off. Sean did flag his uncertainty, so partial credit. 🟢 Texas leads the nation in green/renewable energy Sean stated Texas is the leader in green energy nationwide. This is confirmed and then some. Texas generated 169,442 GWh from wind and solar in 2024 — nearly double California's 92,316 GWh. Texas leads in wind, is #1 or #2 in solar depending on the metric, and has been the national renewable energy leader for over a decade. Narrative violation confirmed. 🟡 EV sales peaked in 2023 and are "down about 10% from peak" Sean said EV sales kind of peaked in 2023 and are down roughly 10%. Tesla sales specifically peaked in 2023 and have declined since. But total US EV sales actually grew 7%+ in 2024 to a record ~1.3 million units, then dipped about 2% in 2025 to ~1.275 million. So total EVs haven't really dropped 10% from peak — it's more like 2%. Tesla's decline is steeper. The direction is right but the magnitude is overstated. 🟡 Dan's home state Colorado has "60% coal" for electricity Dan said "we have 60% coal" for his electricity in Colorado. Here's the thing — he was right about a decade ago. Colorado's coal-fired generation was indeed at 60% in 2014. But it's dropped fast: down to 33% in 2023 and just 27–28% in 2024. Wind now provides 30% of Colorado's electricity, and renewables overall hit 43% in 2024. Dan's number is outdated by about 10 years, but he wasn't making it up — at least the number existed in recent memory. 🔴 James Garfield: "1864ish, 1863" Sean dated James Garfield to the 1860s. Garfield was nominated in 1880, inaugurated in 1881, and assassinated in 1881. Off by almost two decades. However, Sean's story about how Garfield became president is largely accurate and actually undersells it: Garfield went to the convention as a congressman to nominate someone else (John Sherman), gave a nominating speech so powerful that after 36 ballots of deadlock, the delegates chose him instead. He was then shot by a deranged office-seeker four months into his presidency. Great story, wrong decade. 🟢 Garfield was a congressman who gave a great speech and became president Despite the date being off, the substance of Sean's Garfield story checks out. Garfield was indeed a congressman (actually an 8-term congressman), he delivered a speech at a contested convention that turned the crowd in his favor, and after 36 ballots he was nominated as a dark horse. Then assassinated. All accurate. BONUS ID: Dan couldn't remember the name of "The Flack" Substack author — said "Treverney something" with a hyphenated last name. The person he's describing is Lulu Cheng Meservey, who writes the Substack called "Flack" (at getflack.com) and coined the "go direct" communications movement. Final Score: 4 green, 5 yellow, 1 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it.
1:23:26Riches in the Niches
Jan 25, 2026
Dan and Sean kick off 2026 with a look back at their 2025 predictions—what hit, what missed, and what's carrying over into the new year. From government shutdowns to Big Tech dominance to the DEI pendulum swing, they grade their calls before diving into what's ahead. The big theme for 2026? Geopolitics. With power shifting in Venezuela, potential regime change in Iran, and Trump making noise about Cuba, the hosts break down their "cold Fourth Turning" thesis—consequential global realignment without World War-scale conflict. On AI, they push back on the "hype bubble bursting" narrative with real examples of transformative use (including Dan having Claude work on projects while he slept). They also dig into economic policy critique, the resilience of the American economy despite central planning missteps, and why they're cautiously bullish on 2026. Key Topics: 2025 predictions scorecard Geopolitics as the defining story of 2026 Taiwan's slow-motion transition (the Hong Kong playbook) AI: public perception vs. actual capability Aggregation theory and ecosystem opportunities Economic outlook: muddling through despite bad policy Links & References: Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory: stratechery.com (https://stratechery.com/aggregation-theory/) The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich Hayek and the 1940s cartoon adaptation (https://cdn.mises.org/Road%20to%20Serfdom%20in%20Cartoons.pdf) The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe JOLTS Data: Bureau of Labor Statistic (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/)
1:18:25Panda Diplomacy
Jan 6, 2026
What starts as a travel recap turns into a wide-ranging conversation about manufacturing, geopolitics, surveillance, and the quiet signals of national confidence. Sean is back stateside after several weeks in China and Japan, where he was auditing suppliers and rethinking what tariffs, supply chains, and “reshoring” actually look like on the ground. From panda diplomacy and traffic that “flows like water,” to EV adoption, special economic zones, and cashless surveillance states, the conversation moves quickly from observation to implication. Along the way, Dan and Sean explore why China’s manufacturing base keeps getting stronger even as the U.S. talks about bringing jobs home, how switching costs quietly drive de-industrialization, and why blocking progress at every turn may be the most expensive policy choice of all. The discussion expands outward—touching on AI, misinformation, drone warfare, Taiwan, chips, and why history often feels utopian only in retrospect. If Rome, Athens, or Florence were messy while they were happening, maybe that’s the real lesson: we’re living in history right now. Pandas, it turns out, make excellent diplomats. They’re calm, patient, and impossible to rush. Maybe there’s something in that. Topics covered What supply chain audits in China actually look like Tariffs, switching costs, and why April changed everything EV adoption, license plate incentives, and urban policy Special economic zones as policy experiments Cashless convenience vs centralized surveillance AI translation, misinformation, and “the only way out is through” Drone warfare, Taiwan, and fragile chip supply chains Civic pride, cleanliness, and the tragedy of the commons Why America struggles to build—and what that costs Rome wasn’t utopian either
56:27I Guess We Doin Cooperation Now
Aug 25, 2025
After an unintended “summer break” that didn’t feel much like one, Dan and Sean are back at the mics. This episode ranges from the personal to the global: burnout, survivor’s guilt, therapy culture, and the constant tug-of-war between staying informed and staying sane. On the business and economics front, they dive into tariffs, reshoring, and whether Intel should be nationalized. From semiconductor foundries to data center booms, robots that work for $5 an hour, and the inevitability of bubbles, the conversation traces how global systems reconfigure under pressure. Books and ideas also surface: Abigail Shrier’s Bad Therapy, Lanny Bassham’s With Winning in Mind, Robert Anton Wilson’s Prometheus Rising, and Hans Rosling’s Factfulness. The through-line? How to balance inner chatter, community, and coping strategies in a time when, as Dan puts it, “we are moving from an age of thinking into an age of feeling.” Along the way: Why over-therapy might be counterproductive Gen Z and the “lost rites of passage” (driving, dating, drinking) Corn subsidies, Eli Lilly, and the high-fructose dilemma What Clarkson’s Farm gets right (and wrong) about farming How cultural norms shape family, community, and loneliness It’s part catch-up, part forecast, and part reckoning — a reminder that sometimes the best strategy is just to “keep your head above water and ride the wave.”
1:16:01Oikos and Nomos: What Is the Economy, Really?
Jun 3, 2025
This week, Dan and Sean dive into the deep end of economic uncertainty—from the philosophical origins of “the economy” to the lived reality of layoffs, inflation, and shifting trade routes. Why do oil rigs in North Dakota matter to the price of cheese? Are we witnessing demand destruction or just another panic? And what does “creative destruction” really look like when the grenades are turning into landmines? Along the way: internal combustion nerdery, fourth turning fatigue, and a fair bit of macroeconomic exasperation. If you’re feeling off-balance in today’s economy, you’re not alone. We're all just trying to stay afloat in choppy waters—and sometimes the best you can do is keep your head up and wait for the next swell. Books Discussed: In This Economy? – Kyla Scanlon A Splendid Exchange – William J. Bernstein Amusing Ourselves to Death – Neil Postman The Fourth Turning – William Strauss and Neil Howe The Siege – Ben Macintyre The Fifth Risk (and a new companion) – Michael Lewis Quote of the Week: “They’re not grenades anymore—they’re landmines we’ve set for ourselves.” Chapters: 00:00 – Weekend work and the managerial grind 01:00 – Oilfield layoffs and sour vs. sweet crude 04:00 – Why internal combustion is still the apex of engineering 06:00 – What does “economy” actually mean? (spoiler: it’s Greek) 10:00 – Sheep barons, trade routes, and the roots of specialization 14:00 – Consumer sentiment vs. reality: is the mismatch getting worse? 18:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the risk of stagflation 24:00 – Layoffs, rate cuts, and the Fed’s boxed-in dilemma 30:00 – Budget gaps, fake fixes, and the math that doesn’t math 34:00 – The future of global trade (with or without us) 39:00 – Will the Fed move fast enough—or too late again? 45:00 – NIH cuts and the role of scientific “waste” 51:00 – A fresh read from Michael Lewis + other book recs 56:00 – The fourth turning isn’t over: the ecpyrosis continues 59:00 – Swimming, surfing, or just floating through it all 1:04:00 – Walmart’s margins and the myth of “just eating” tariffs 1:10:00 – Median income, optionality, and the meaning of wealth 1:13:00 – Outro: shifting sands and the promise (or threat) of change
1:00:31Calling All Mental Nomads
May 11, 2025
Dan and Sean return to the mic with a message for the wanderers, the misfits, and the intellectually restless. This episode explores what it means to seek challenge instead of comfort, to embrace unfinished thoughts, and to carve out space for messy, real-time reflection. If you’ve ever felt like a mental nomad—curious but unrooted—this one’s for you. Topics Covered: -Why we sometimes feel allergic to routines -The surprising difficulty of “simple” goals -Building the room when you don’t fit the ones you find -Podcasting as an act of unscripted exploration -The value of talking through your thoughts before they’re fully baked
42:31The Buyer’s Market is Real (and Zillow is the Worst)
Apr 28, 2025
Hello show notes readers! This week, we're trying something new in our mission to bring you insights from the world of entrepenuership. We're bringing in an outside expert to exlpore an area of entrepeneurship that some of you may have thought about - real estate! This week, we’re joined by Lindsay Howard, broker and entrepreneur, for a deep dive into the real world of real estate — starting a family brokerage, surviving the NAR commission shakeup, why Zillow is the villain nobody asked for, and how the 6% mortgage panic is mostly a memory issue. We also talk through the hidden challenges of working with builders, why every new agent needs a second income stream, and what’s really driving the current buyer’s market. Plus: the forgotten days of Rolodex MLS listings and 15% mortgage rates. Whether you are thinking about diving into real estate, or just wondering why every third house on your street has a "For Sale" sign, we hope this episode will help give you some new insights. Thanks for listening to Unqualified Advice. If you're looking for a Houston-area agent — or just want to learn more about Lindsay — visit HowardHomeRealty.com.
1:22:05Say No to Ferrets: The NAFTA Myth and the Dresden Reality
Apr 20, 2025
🧵 Episode Summary In this episode, Dan and Sean delve into the complexities of tariffs, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, and the philosophical underpinnings of leadership. They challenge conventional narratives around NAFTA, explore the historical impact of events like the bombing of Dresden, and compare and contrast the strategic philosophies of Sun Tzu, Lao Tzu, and Donald Trump. The conversation also touches on the challenges of reshoring manufacturing, the intricacies of global supply chains, and the disparities faced by U.S. sellers on platforms like Amazon. 📚 References & Mentions Books: The Maniac (historical fiction on John von Neumann) A Splendid Exchange by William J. Bernstein The Tao Te Ching – Lao Tzu The Art of War – Sun Tzu The Art of the Deal – Donald Trump Substacks: Market Memo: Seeing the Stag from Citrini Research -https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/market-memo-seeing-the-stag Companies: Amazon Apple Craftsman Chevron Exxon Unusual Whales 🕰️ Chapter Breakdown 00:00 – Mustelid Mischief: A Ferret Allegory for Tariffs 01:18 – Who We Are: Sean and Dan Reintroduce Themselves 03:03 – Liberation Day and Tariff Mayhem 06:56 – Options, Whiplash, and Quiet Billionaires 09:21 – From Bretton Woods to Financialized Fragility 13:05 – The Myth of NAFTA and Manufacturing Decline 16:23 – America, Socks, and the Imaginary Labor Army 19:02 – Merchant Marines and Military Logistics 24:33 – Deep Supply Chains, Shallow Solutions 29:19 – Nukes and the Trigger Points of War 34:03 – The Compound Effects of Complexity 36:25 – The Tao of Strategy: Sun Tzu, Trump, and Lao Tzu 44:48 – Governance by Table: Three Philosophies Compared 48:20 – Amazon’s Tilted Playing Field and Ecom Frustrations 52:48 – Bezos vs. Jassy: Vision, Risk, and Systems Thinking 59:40 – An Economic NATO? Supply Chain Strategy for the Future 1:02:07 – Why We Can’t Make a Wrench 1:10:02 – Corporate Whiplash, Lead Times, and Stainless Steel 1:14:14 – The Stock Market Is Not the Economy 1:17:21 – Book Recs and Trading as Human Nature
1:12:26Don't Be a Numbass
Apr 13, 2025
In this episode, Dan and Sean navigate through numbness, nuance, and the uncomfortable edges of modern life. From tariffs and fentanyl policy to the messy mechanics of entrepreneurship, they discuss the complicated reality of staying engaged in a world that often feels overwhelming. Also on deck: what it really means to be an entrepreneur, thoughts on Prometheus Rising, unfair competition on Amazon, and a shoutout to 23andMe’s vanishing business model. Oh, and if you see a quarter, pick it up. Topics include: – Volatility and numbness in 2025 – Dan’s new startup idea (inspired by Skype’s shutdown) – Surviving tariffs, uncertainty, and unfair Amazon practices – Fentanyl and the difference between drug policy and public safety – Thoughts on Prometheus Rising and reality tunnels – Survivorship bias, investing parlor games, and the danger of hindsight – Trying not to get drafted Books discussed: – Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson – Abduction: Human Encounters with Aliens by John E. Mack – The Comfort Crisis by Michael Easter – References to ideas by Jim O’Shaughnessy and Ben Hunt
1:15:44Manifesting Abundance: The Quarter, The Algorithm, and The Belief
Mar 30, 2025
Hello show notes readers, What is writing? What is art? Did I create this or did a robot and how would you be able to tell the difference? This week we coin the term "adverbious", hoping to prove we aren't robots and also to give you a tool to figure out who the robots are. We can't define it but we know it when we see it, if you know what I mean? Later, we delve into Dan's masterful schedule management as an entrepreneur. Dan explains what it took to get there, what it takes to maintain, and why it is one of the biggest benefits of entrepreneurship. Finally, we get a little woo and explore the work of Robert Anton Wilson. I share some early thoughts from Prometheus Rising and Dan provides some context from other authors. As always, thanks for listening! We welcome your feedback! Find Dan at www.twitter.com/danielhatke or Sean at www.twitter.com/slowvsm. 📚 Books Discussed Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson The Expectation Effect by David Robson Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
1:09:41Crude Realities: The Organization Breathes
Mar 19, 2025
Hello show notes readers! This week, Sean and Dan look into the rhythms of the oil and gas world — how things speed up, slow down, and sometimes just stop. They talk about layoffs making headlines, how organizations expand and contract like they’re breathing, and what it feels like to be on the inside when that happens. Sean explains why fewer rigs don’t always mean less oil, and why the people most affected aren’t always the ones you’d think. They get into how managers try (sometimes awkwardly) to protect and coach people, what it’s like to get blindsided, and why being chased by a metaphorical predator might not be all bad — at least for keeping you sharp. The converstion takes a detour into parenting, classrooms, and whether pulling your kid out of tough situations helps or hurts in the long run. Plus: what homeschooling has in common with org charts, why messy code and stuck loops are part of building anything, and a few thoughts on agency, grace, and figuring out when to hold on or let go. Books Discussed * Prometheus Rising – Robert Anton Wilson; explores consciousness, reality tunnels, and mindset shifts. * Factfulness – Hans Rosling; emphasizes how the world is improving despite negative perceptions. * The Fifth Risk – Michael Lewis; highlights essential but overlooked government jobs and inefficiencies. Lectures Referenced Neville Goddard: https://youtu.be/zXsZnDakDVA Chapters 00:00 - Weather and Cyclicality 01:07 - Oil Layoffs & Market Trends 02:55 - Why the U.S. Exports Oil 06:38 - Fracking & Efficiency Gains 07:34 - The Workplace "Breathes" 12:47 - The Role of Fear & Agency 16:52 - Education & Homeschooling Trends 28:38 - AI, Coding, and Debugging Frustrations 40:57 - AI Slack Bots for Work Productivity 50:43 - Prometheus Rising & Reality Tunnels 55:15 - Telepathy Tapes & The Tower of Babel 1:02:00 - Manifestation & The Power of Thought 1:06:02 - Government Jobs & Bureaucracy Debates 1:17:05 - Wrapping Up: Big Topics & Future Thoughts
1:07:33The Sovereign Individual: A Book for the 1% (of Readers Who Finish It)
Mar 9, 2025
Hello dear show notes reader, We're 25 episodes in! Woo hoo! (Imagine Leslie Knope. Now read the italicized bit again.) As the author of these show notes, I feel like 25 should be a significant number, but I also don’t have any valid reason why. Nonetheless, I felt inspired to make these show notes really shine! What’s good about this episode? While editing, I had two realizations: 1. Dan is a better podcast host than I am. (I’ll deal with that emotionally later.) 2. This episode’s format unintentionally gave me a meta-analysis moment—right here, in these show notes. Here’s what I mean: we both read quotes from books we’ve been chewing on. When one of us shares a quote, we know a follow-up question is coming—something like "What do you think?" Since we expect it, we listen more actively, playing with the idea in real time instead of waiting for our turn to speak. By the time the sharer is done, the listener is already mentally off to the races, turning the quote over, looking for angles. That made for some damn good back-and-forths. What’s bad about this episode? The prep work. As you will hear, we listened to the auidobook version of The Sovereign Individual, by Jame Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, and neither of us enjoyed it. But we hope you enjoy our discussion about this slog of a book. Books Discussed The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson The Tao Te Ching by Laotzi Three-Body Problem by Liu Xicin Chapter Titles with Timestamps [00:00] "Should We Just Move to a Tax Haven?" [02:11] "Books That Should Have Been Shorter" [04:33] "Did They Predict the Future?" [06:48] "The Doomers Strike Again" [10:16] "Technology Changes Power, but Does It Decentralize It?" [17:59] "The Cyber Economy That Wasn’t" [24:39] "Populism, Power, and the Small Guy’s Revenge" [32:40] "Why Build a Few Big Things When You Can Build a Million Small Ones?" [41:52] "Has the Outrage Faded?" [45:31] "Should Governments Pay for Performance?" [54:11] "The Future of Democracy and Its Critics" [58:39] "Loneliness, Power, and the Failure of Community"
57:15Overwork, Curiosity, and Sympathy: Technology and Modern Vices
Feb 23, 2025
Hello dear show notes readers! In this episode of Unqualified Advice we discuss our recent experiences writing code for building websites and apps with Cursor (www.cursor.com/en). In short, we're having a blast working with these new tools and have a few tips for those just getting started. We've recommended it before, but it's worth repeating Nat Eliason's (https://blog.nateliason.com/p/ai-course) Course Build Your Own Life Coach (https://build-your-own-life-coach.circle.so/checkout/access) is a great course for beginners wanting to get started. And here is a demo of GumLoop (https://youtu.be/QFc7jXZ2pdE?si=bJF3Lb9QjWUQpeXm) from @GregIsenberg that impressed us both. In the back-half of the episode, Dan stumbles across Nietzsche’s Modern Vices and we try to determine our views on overwork, curiosity, and sympathy. Books & Influences Mentioned The Machiavellians, defenders of freedom by James Burnham: Recommended as a read on political freedom and preference falsification. Boom by Bern Hobart: Suggested for its fresh perspective on economic and innovation booms. Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman: Referenced when discussing modern media, communication, and information overload. Abduction by John E. Mack: Mentioned in the context of case studies on alien abductions, altered states of consciousness, and The Telepathy Tapes. Nietzsche’s Ideas: The discussion on modern vices is heavily inspired by Nietzsche’s critique of overwork, vague curiosity, and universal sympathy Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Current Events 02:56 Navigating Bureaucracy and Organizational Dynamics 05:37 Leadership Styles: Wartime vs. Peacetime CEOs 08:29 Embracing Change and Future Planning 11:17 Exploring New Skills and Content Creation 14:00 Technical Challenges and Innovations in Development 21:37 Exploring Competitors and AI Tools 26:31 Building in Public: Branding and Messaging 30:57 Modern Vices: Overwork, Curiosity, and Sympathy 39:58 Navigating Organizational Changes with Compassion 45:24 Exploring the Concept of Booms in Society 50:13 AI and Contextual Understanding
1:19:39Millennials and Zoomers Lost in the Matrix
Feb 16, 2025
Hello dear show notes readers! Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. We recorded this one on Inauguration Day, so a few viewpoints have already been proven wildly-off or dead-on. We hit a lot of topics this week, as we catch up on our recent podcast addiction (The Telepathy Tapes - https://thetelepathytapes.com) and what *it all means, man!* If you're a fan of sci-fi or an opponent of generational bashing, this one is for you! Themes Discussed Generational Differences: Millennials vs. Zoomers, attitudes toward work, alcohol, risk-taking, and mental health. Weather & Climate Resilience: Houston’s rare snow event, infrastructure issues, and the impact of extreme cold. Telepathy & Consciousness: Discussion of The Telepathy Tapes podcast, skepticism vs. belief, scientific and philosophical questions about consciousness, metaphysics, and the nature of reality. Science Fiction & AI: Blade Runner 2049, The Matrix, Star Trek, and their influence on how we think about AI, consciousness, and society. News & Media Consumption: The role of cable news, Twitter, and TikTok in shaping public perception, information density, and generational media habits. Entrepreneurial Opportunities Under Trump 2.0: Speculative investment ideas based on anticipated policy shifts. Personal Growth & Mentorship: Volunteering, teaching, and giving back to the community, including discussions about Minds Matter and mentorship programs. Books Discussed The Master and His Emissary by Iain McGilchrist Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman The Coddling of the American Mind by Jonathan Haidt Of Boys and Men by Richard Reeves The Martian and Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir Galápagos by Kurt Vonnegut Annihilation (Southern Reach Trilogy) by Jeff VanderMeer Companies Discussed Manplow: Endorsement of a large snow shovel for efficient driveway clearing. TikTok: Discussion about its potential ban and its impact on younger generations. Diageo: Mentioned in the context of alcohol consumption declines and industry challenges. Jensen Huang/NVIDIA: Brief reference in relation to AI and robotics. Trump Coin: Mentioned in the context of speculation and financial opportunities. Chapter Titles with Timestamps "Happy Inauguration Day" (00:00) – Opening banter and Houston’s weather chaos. "The Manplow Revolution" (02:47) – Discussion about the oversized snow shovel. "The Telepathy Tapes: Mind-Blowing or Pseudoscience?" (04:06) – Deep dive into the podcast and consciousness theories. "Sci-Fi, AI, and The Matrix" (12:48) – Exploring how science fiction shapes views on AI and the future. "Millennials vs. Zoomers: Who’s Got It Right?" (40:04) – A generational comparison on risk, alcohol, and mental health. "Mentorship, Minds Matter, and Giving Back" (1:09:19) – The role of volunteering and its personal impact. "Making Money Off the Grift Economy" (1:05:57) – Investment speculation under the new administration.
1:11:35There's Nobody in the Forecasters Hall of Fame
Feb 3, 2025
Hello my dear show notes readers, Welcome back for another episode advice. This one starts of personal for me as I explain how I've been getting into lifting weights. In the process, life reminded me of the old adage "experience is what you get, when you don't get what you want." In short, I try to be as honest with myself and you as I can about hitting the bit 4-0 and making some important life decisions. Later, we devolve into our usual banter with a heavy dose of AI talk. Dan and I are both having a blast with Nat Eliason's (https://blog.nateliason.com/p/ai-course) Course Build Your Own Life Coach (https://build-your-own-life-coach.circle.so/checkout/access). If our convo piqued your interest, you should check it out. Later, Dan decides to match my energy - if you don't know what I mean, check out the Adam Grant and Charles Duhigg books below - and gets personal on recent challenges facing one of his ecomm businesses. Y'all, it's simultaneously hard and exciting out there and we get REAL this week. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg Works of Carl Jung Companies Discussed: Bloomberg Amazon Google Apple Walmart Peloton Academy Sports + Outdoors Chapters 00:00 Embracing the Big 4-0 03:53 Winding Down Fig: A Tough Decision 09:55 Lessons Learned from Business Ventures 12:48 Setting New Goals and Exploring AI 25:36 The Evolution of AI and Data Privacy 33:31 Personal Updates and AI Coding Adventures 40:28 Challenges of E-commerce and Tariff Enforcement 48:13 Navigating Tariff Codes and Compliance 54:08 Exploring Global Living Options 59:18 Insights from Carl Jung 01:04:16 The Power of Consciousness and Fate 01:08:11 Reflections on Planning and Control
1:05:51We're in an Age of Build
Jan 27, 2025
Hello, Show Notes Readers We find ourselves neck-deep in a discussion about stated versus revealed preferences for the half of the show, as I take us on a trip down memory lane after doing my Christmas shopping. Nostalgia alert! Dan explains his theory on capital flight and we come to the realization that 80s dystopic downtowns were symptoms and not causes of previous preference shifts. After that, we look into the future as Dan tells us about his experience learning to write code with AI tools. The discussion gets a bit technical, but if you're thinking about how to apply AI in your day-to-day, be sure to listen in for Dan's tips on where to get started. Thanks for tuning in and we hope you enjoy! Cheers, Sean Highlights Why the retail landscape continues to evolve and what that means for the future of malls and city centers. A discussion on downtown revitalization and population density: can we break the boom-and-bust cycle of urban centers? Dan’s hands-on experience with AI-powered coding tools and how they’re changing the game for developers and non-developers alike. Practical tips for getting started with AI tools like Cursor, Bolt, and more. Companies Discussed Sharper Image Amazon Brookstone SLB (formerly Schlumberger) Microsoft Google Tesla Simon Property Group Chapters 00:00 Holiday Reflections and the Evolution of Gift Shopping 06:44 The Changing Landscape of Malls 10:39 Capital Flight and Urban Revitalization 20:10 The Future of City Centers and Density 26:49 Economic Dynamics in Urban Development 31:48 Shifts in Urban Living Preferences 34:41 The Future of Software Development with AI 41:31 Building Software Solutions for Industry Challenges 47:07 Strategic Opportunities in the Oil and Gas Sector 51:46 Identifying Use Cases in Industries 54:24 Automation and Error Reduction in Business Processes 57:59 The Future of AI and Automation 01:00:37 Comparing AI Tools: ChatGPT vs. Claude 01:04:12 Exploring New Ideas and Recommendations
50:51Showing off Our Big Shiny Crystal Balls 🔮🔮
Jan 17, 2025
Hello my dear show notes readers! I've missed you so. We took a little longer than expected break this time, because someone recently turned 40 (https://open.substack.com/pub/blacktuesdays/p/there-was-a-place?r=11xjyw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) and hit it a little too hard in the fine city of New Orleans. Have you ever been? If not, you really must go. One night is not enough. Two nights are divine. Three nights are for 30-somethings. But back to the crux of the matter! This week, we take a look back at some dumb stuff we said about 2024 last January, have a hearty chuckle, and proceed to say some dumb stuff about the coming year. We had a blast and hope you enjoy listening in as we stare down at our big shiny crystal balls. Chapters 00:00 Reflections on Predictions for 2024 09:28 Lessons Learned from Past Predictions 12:19 Bold Predictions for 2025 -15:22 The Future of Advertising and Market Behavior -17:56 Labor Market Predictions and Economic Corrections -21:03 Jay Powell Buys Bitcoin? -28:29 Anticipating Scandals in Private Equity -31:50 The DEI Pendulum Continues to Change Direction -34:06 Labor Strikes: Frequency vs. Success -37:28 The Future of SEO and AI Integration -41:05 Revamping Old Apps with AI Technology 48:27 Personal Growth and Life Reflections
58:18Radical Acceptance and Other Goals
Dec 31, 2024
Hello dear show notes readers! Resolutions are for wusses! This week we're goal setting!? Yeah, we're not really sure what the difference is either, but we hope you listen-in and help hold us accountable in the year to come. Here's a summary of how we want to improve ourselves in 2025: Dan's Goals -Embrace Radical Acceptance -Improve Quality of Presence -Focus -Do better at being 'off' -Punctuation -Do things you can tell your grandkids about -Do better than pay bills -Enact "strategy days" (check out our episode on the topic) -Enjoy my weirdness and embrace goofy -Can't save souls in an empty church -Add value -See Podcast Goals below -Aspire to Optimism (link goes to David Deutch on Optimism) -Dan's not sure yet, but he's gonna get back to us after clicking that link Sean's Goals -Finding Guideposts & Punctuation -Exprience one "Top 10 Day" -Find 12 flow states -Asking better questions - helping others do the same -Habits -100 bike rides -50,000 words written -Learn how to integrate AI into workflows -Create an AI agent to learn how and not be left behind. -Unplugged time -Create designated unplugged time and track progress -Try a hobby that involves physical creation -Anyone got a recommendation for a 3D printer? Podcast Goals -5,000 downloads -10,000 YouTube engagements -Set up an email so you can email us. Not that anyone wants or needs more email, but really do we want to hear from you if you have something to say.
54:11Sovereign Individuals and Broken Healthcare Incentives
Dec 22, 2024
Hello Show Notes Readers! This week, turned into a bit of a bookclub episode. We compare our notes on the start of Sovereign Individual and talk about areas where the authors imaginations hit or missed the mark. The one thing we both agree on, so far: it's a long book. The discussion turns towards the attitudes we've witnessed on the heels of the assassination of Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare. Are the ugly attitudes we see around our healthcare institutions symptoms of a larger scale fragmentation of society envisioned in Sovereign Individual? Books Recommended Five Decembers by James Kestrel Artemis and The Martian by Andy Weir Jo Nesbo's Harry Hole Series The Winter of our Discontent by John Steinbeck 1Q84 by Haruki Murakami Chapters 00:00 Synthwave and Futuristic Sounds 04:14 Exploring Literature and Reading Recommendations 08:35 Diving into Non-Fiction: The Sovereign Individual 14:03 The Future of Government and Digital Economy 22:29 Healthcare System Reactions 33:22 Cultural References and Language 38:30 Doomsday Predictions and Societal Fragmentation 40:28 Comparing 'Sovereign Individual' and 'The Fourth Turning' 43:25 Books That Challenge Us
1:11:58Eastern Wisdom, Western Routines, and the Art of Being Present
Dec 15, 2024
Hello show notes readers! This week, Billy Pilgrim is becoming unstuck in time as we talk about how "the daily routine" is simultaneously a blessing and a curse. We explore the importance of marking life's milestones - "punctuations in time" - and how they shape our sense of memory and progress. We ask, "Can carefully curating your media diet help with your sanity?" and dive into the mental toll of algorithms, social media, and the constant noise of the digital age. Along the way, we urge you to check out Tim Urban's Monkey, and reflect on the fascinating interplay of rationality and chaos in our minds. Other highlights include: The magic and madness of Spotify Wrapped and what it reveals about us. Eastern vs. Western philosophies and how cultural lenses shape perception. Reflections on AGI, the future of sensory technologies, and what comes after the Information Age. Parenthood, presence, and finding joy amidst the chaos of family life. Manifesting intentions for 2025 and the art of asking more meaningful questions. Join us as we laugh, reflect, and try to make sense of the absurdity of it all. Things to Check Out The Daily Tay: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAWXzhYSck5/?igsh=aGhyaWd0d3g2Yng5 https://www.instagram.com/reel/DDFiz8iyc2g/?igsh=MzN4NG9mZWpwNGh6 Tim Urban's Monkey: https://waitbutwhy.com/2013/10/why-procrastinators-procrastinate.html Books Discussed How to Know a Person by David Brooks Chatter by Ethan Kross The Tao Te Ching by Lao Tsu The WEIRDest People in the World by Joseph Henrich Companies Discussed Spotify Apple (Apple Music, Apple One) Tidal Osmo.ai (smell digitization) Lux Capital (investments in innovation) Obsidian (note-taking app) Chapters 00:00 - Spotify Wrapped Insights 04:19 - Economics of Streaming Services 06:34 - Questions for Reflection and Personal Growth 14:13 - AGI and the Future of Technology 28:06 - Travel and Routine in Parenting 41:29 - Internal Dialogue and Mental Health 48:28 - Eastern vs. Western Philosophies 55:10 - Manifesting Goals for 2025 1:09:56 - Closing Thoughts and Humor
1:00:26Embrace Your Inner Chaos Monkey
Dec 10, 2024
Hello show notes readers! I hope this episode finds you well. We are dabbling with a weekly release schedule here this quarter and hope you enjoy a little extra content. This week on Unqualified Advice: Dan flys to Cebu and I drive up the Pacific Coast Highway. Somehow, we arrive at the same point: Nat Eliason (https://twitter.com/nateliason/status/1858524566223540730) is wrong and The Fourth Turning is nowhere near it's end. Chapters 00:00 Weather and Reflections on the Philippines Trip 06:41 Work and Transparency in Business 09:06 The Fourth Turning Discussion -11:54 Crisis and Reconstruction -14:36 Economic Perspectives on Tariffs -17:16 The Future of Trade and Manufacturing -23:29 Envisioning a Golden Age -26:25 The Impact of Global Trade on Society -27:21 Trust in Government Institutions -31:02 Reforming Entitlement Programs -35:47 The Future of Social Security 41:02 The Importance of Connection with Nature 43:21 Navigating Parenthood Challenges -46:13 Support Systems for Parents -49:17 Socioeconomic Disparities in Education -52:15 The Role of Service in Society -55:21 Progress and Challenges in Society
54:39Broken Segues and Segways: From Chips to Dips in the Market
Nov 25, 2024
Hello show notes readers! This time we dive into markets, media, and misinformation. We discuss TSMC’s record setting Arizona fab and its impact on semiconductor production, national security, and the Pheonix water market. I tell Dan why the Schiller PE ratio has been haunting me, as we ponder its historical significance and what today’s elevated levels might mean for the economy. Are we due for a downturn? Is it time to adjust your investments? On the cultural front, I shares insights from Neil Postman’s Amusing Ourselves to Death, sparking a discussion on the perils of media overload, misinformation, and what it takes to inoculate ourselves against disinformation in the TikTok era. Like the perception of their quality, we take a dive into the broken incentives at Boeing, the importance of innovation over shareholder value, and the role of corporate bonds in stormy economic skies. What the AI Reviews are Saying: "With humor, wit, and plenty of tangents, this episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about the intersection of markets, technology, and modern life." - GPT 4o Companies Discussed: TSMC NVIDIA Apple ASML Holdings Boeing Airbus Embraer Bombardier Books Recommended: Dark Matter by Blake Crouch Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman Wayward Pines Series by Blake Crouch Chapters: 00:00 Market Movements and Economic Insights 04:15 TSMC's Advancements, Water Usage and Environmental Concerns 09:12 Literature Recommendations and Reflections 11:50 Media Consumption and Information Overload 14:51 The Role of Education in Critical Thinking 17:33 Misinformation vs. Disinformation 20:26 The Evolution of Television and Entertainment 22:52 Personal Reflections on Media Consumption 32:04 Understanding Market Indicators and Valuations 34:46 Investment Strategies in a High PE Environment 38:03 Debt vs. Equity: Navigating Asset Classes 41:43 Evaluating Corporate Bonds and Recession Risks 43:45 The Future of Major Corporations: Boeing and TSMC 48:34 The Disconnect in Corporate Incentives 52:10 Speculating on Future Trades and Investments
59:17The Many Deaths of Life: On Progress, Not Perfection
Nov 21, 2024
Hello show notes readers! Sorry for the late episode! Someone forgot the difference between November and December when scheduling this one to post. I just tried to give myself side-eye... not sure how effective it was. In this episode of Unqualified Advice, we talk about our perspectives on challenges facing men today. We get a bit deep, exploring themes of loneliness, mental health, and the crisis of modern masculinity. For any wives who may be reading this and say we don't talk about our feelings enough... here's some proof that we can! From the importance of positive role models to the evolving definitions of masculinity, we do our best to give earnest opinions on what is impacting our own pschcyes. Also discuss the value of social capital, the power of iterative progress, and the pitfalls of chasing perfection. Join in for a blend personal anecdotes, data-driven insights, and a touch of humor to shed light on these pressing topics. Whether you're seeking inspiration, understanding, or connection, this episode offers a thought-provoking exploration of what it means to grow, stumble, and keep moving forward. Thanks for listening if you are listening! Cheers, Sean Books Discussed: Of Boys and Men by Richard Reeves - central to the discussion on the challenges facing men and young men today, focusing on societal shifts and their impact on mental health and identity. The Coddling of the American Mind and The Happiness Hypothesis by Jonathan Haidt - referenced in the context of societal challenges, particularly among younger generations. How to Know a Person by David Brooks - highlighted as a book about building deeper connections and fostering community. Give and Take by Adam Grant - mentioned in the context of social capital and the dynamics between givers, takers, and matchers. Chapters: 00:00 Bagels and Ironman: A Lighthearted Start 06:02 Addressing Men's Issues: A Bold Statement 11:38 The Crisis of Masculinity: Role Models and Expectations 16:42 Suicide Rates and Mental Health: A Growing Concern 22:05 The Complexity of Male Emotions: Internal vs External 27:22 The Search for Positive Role Models: Light vs Dark Traits 30:57 The Role of Public Figures as Modern Role Models 34:15 Exploring Generational Perspectives and Societal Expectations 35:24 The Quest for Self-Acceptance and Perfectionism 38:38 Practicing Gratitude and Recognizing Progress 41:45 Navigating Life's Challenges and Building Momentum 45:13 Understanding Gender Dynamics and Mental Health 47:09 The Importance of Dialogue and Emotional Intelligence 50:30 Creating Positive Interactions and Social Capital
1:23:20Supply Chains: the Butter Making your Croissant Possible
Oct 29, 2024
Hello show notes readers! This week, the rubber meets the road-literally! Sean dives into stories from his travels to industrial sites where rubber is made, giving a glimpse into the gritty reality of this essential material's manufacturing. Meanwhile, Dan shares insights into how he's using AI to streamline operations for his online business, exploring how cutting-edge tools can optimize tasks once thought to require human expertise. Along the way, we venture into the fascinating world of memetics, behavioral finance, and the ways AI might just change everything we know about both business and culture. Companies Discussed: SLB (formerly Schlumberger) Michelin Bridgestone Cabot Orion Engineered Carbons Parker Green Tweed Freudenberg CQC (C Quest Capital) IBM Decker's Crocs Books Recommended: "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe – Referenced in the context of societal cycles and potential future upheavals. "Range" by David Epstein – Discussed in the context of generalists versus specialists. "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan – Referenced in discussions about global supply chains and geopolitics. "The Material World" by Ed Conway – Mentioned in relation to resource management and global economics. "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki – Touched upon in the discussion of meme investing and crowd behavior. Chapters: 00:00 Intro and Welcome 03:43 Personal Updates: Training for a Triathlon 07:50 Travel Experiences: Exploring Toronto 12:09 Insights from the Rubber Industry 17:35 Tire Maintenance and Safety Concerns 22:58 Union Strikes and Economic Implications 29:23 Supply Chains: The Croissant Analogy 31:32 Bringing Manufacturing Home: A Strategic Perspective 34:02 Automation and the Future of Manufacturing 36:34 Leadership in Times of Crisis 38:26 Sean Does a Victory Lap on Carbon Credits 48:12 Foreign Investment and Economic Growth 50:12 Labor Arbitrage and Global Inequality 52:10 Cultural Atomization and Community Identity 58:40 A tweet, a vibe, a coming sea change... 01:15:56 How we are using AI today
Supply Chains are the Butter in the Croissant
Oct 28, 2024
Hello dear show notes readers! This week, the rubber meets the road—literally! Sean dives into stories from his travels to industrial sites where rubber is produced, giving a glimpse into the gritty reality of this essential material's manufacturing. Meanwhile, Dan shares insights into how he's using AI to streamline operations for his online business, exploring how cutting-edge tools can optimize tasks. Along the way, we venture into the fascinating world of memetics, behavioral finance, and the ways AI might just change everything. Companies Discussed: • SLB (formerly Schlumberger) • Michelin • Bridgestone • Cabot • Orion Engineered Carbons • Parker • Green Tweed • Freudenberg • CQC (C Quest Capital) • IBM • Decker's • Crocs Books Recommended: • "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe – Referenced in the context of societal cycles and potential future upheavals. • "Range" by David Epstein – Discussed in the context of generalists versus specialists. • "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan – Referenced in discussions about global supply chains and geopolitics. • "The Material World" by Ed Conway – Mentioned in relation to resource management and global economics. • "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki – Touched upon in the discussion of meme investing and crowd behavior.
37:53Do You Want Your Free Market Back?
Oct 13, 2024
Hello show notes readers! Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. We ask some hard questions this week. Did all high school guidance counselors suck? Should Dan have been a Rabbi? What are the physics of the shaggy dog van from dumb and dumber in a torrential downpour? Listen in as we ponder these important questions, and join us in media res as Sean describes a duh moment he had while reading Howard Marks' September 2024 memo Shall we Repeal the Laws of Economics? We're pretty sure the answer is no, but why don't you join us and see what you think? Companies Discussed Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks) Uber McDonald's Taylor Swift (kinda a company?) StubHub Ferrari IBM Oscar Mayer Apple RadioShack Clarkson's Farm Anduril Industries Coca-Cola Books Recommended "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan Housel – Referenced during a discussion about the paradox of wealth and perception, specifically regarding people buying expensive items for external validation. "The Comfort Crisis" by Michael Easter – Mentioned in relation to the idea of seeking discomfort to grow, and how modern life is often too comfortable. 00:00 Intro and Theme 01:27 Discussing Howard Marks and Some Serious Questions 03:44 Understanding Price Dynamics and Market Forces 06:06 The Role of Auctions in Pricing 08:30 Consumer Behavior and Pricing Perceptions 14:26 Pondering the Physics of the Shaggy Dog Van 16:08 Stated vs. Revealed Preferences in Economics 22:09 Did All Guidance Councilors Suck? Should Dan Have Been A Rabbi? 26:39 Zooming Out on Inflation & Zooming in on Tariffs 32:33 What Will "Made in the USA" Look Like Tomorrow?
48:37Roadside Recharging, a.k.a. Why Didn't We Talk More About Bucky's???
Sep 30, 2024
Hello show notes reader! It's been one of those 50 hour weeks with 40 hours of meetings. You know what I mean? No? Yes? Well we talk about it this week, along with dreams of bugging-off to an island somewhere. In fact, I'm gonna bug-off and turn the rest of these notes over to GPT, while I have a beer: In this episode of Unqualified Advice, Daniel Hatke and Sean Filipow cover a mix of personal anecdotes, fitness challenges, and deeper discussions on technology and the future. Daniel recounts his Labor Day weekend, sharing details about his family’s activities and a recent sprint duathlon he completed. The duo dive into a conversation about data centers, AI development, and power consumption, sparked by a recent Invest Like the Best episode featuring Gavin Baker. They explore the challenges of energy efficiency in data centers and Tesla's advancements in AI and autonomous driving. The hosts also reflect on the complexities of climate change, renewable energy, and the material requirements for a sustainable future. The episode wraps up with musings on travel plans to the Philippines and Vietnam, the frustrations of dynamic pricing, and potential domestic and international business ventures. Cheers, Sean Companies Discussed Tesla Waymo Shake Shack Kaiser Bucky’s (#IYKYK) Chapter List 00:00 Introduction and Labor Day Weekend 03:42 Preparing for an Ironman Race and Vaccine Considerations for the Philippines 06:00 Vaccines for the Philippines and Monkeypox Concerns 11:27 Exploring the Investment Potential of AI Technology 17:14 Challenges of Materials Extraction for Renewable Energy 18:26 Dan Explains What Goes Down in a Datacenter 24:52 Advancements in Self-Driving Technology 27:31 Electric Cars and Transportation 30:52 Kiosks: Customer Experience and Efficiency 34:58 Dynamic Pricing and Consumer Behavior 38:29 Planning for International Travel 42:12 Planning Sessions and Work Efficiency 44:45 Travel Plans and Exploring New Destinations 46:58 Dreaming of a Different Lifestyle
51:00Sleepless Nights and Corporate Fights
Sep 16, 2024
Hello dear show notes reader, What makes a toddler brave? How should you think about the scale of massive infrastructure projects and their impact on the surrounding community? What should you consider when dealing with your cranky boss? Are we just getting old? Tune in as we mull over these questions and more in this episode of Unqualified Advice. Chapters 00:00 Busy Weeks and Sleep Regression 02:02 Pre-K and the Bravery of Children 05:09 Water Usage and Eli Lilly's Facility 13:01 Chicago Experience and Real Estate Market 19:18 Government Stimulus and the Housing Market 19:55 The Challenges of the Housing Market 21:10 Tax Incentives for Home Builders 25:36 The Influence of Dystopian Literature 32:39 Workplace Dynamics: Conflicting Directives 53:24 Overcoming the 'That's Not My Job' Mentality 56:24 Finding Team Members Who Go Beyond Their Assigned Roles 59:58 Interview Strategies for Identifying Proactive and Collaborative Individuals
1:02:02Accidental IronDan: An Unqualified Happy Hour
Sep 2, 2024
Hello Show Notes readers, Since Dan and Sean went to college together, you could imagine they know how to have a few drinks and still hold an intelligent converstaion. This week, that hypothesis gets tested with an Unqualified Happy Hour. Perhaps it should be and Overqualified Happy Hour, given the hosts' history. Listen in as Dan shares a news of a recent embarrasing event, Sean talks about the physchology at play during a market crash and rebound, and the two debate what book they should read next. Next time on Unqualified Advice, you can look forward to the hosts (sober this time) delving into their first ever listener question. If you have a question for Sean and Dan to discuss On Air, reach out to them on Twitter (#Bird4Eva) @SlowVSM or @DanielHatke. Chapters 00:00 Accidental Entry: From Duathlon to Half Ironman 03:28 Market Blip and Economic Psychology 06:26 Training Challenges and Preparation 12:14 The Role of Vibes in the Economy 24:50 Erroneous Execution of Cell Orders 25:36 The Ocean's Eleven Style Breakdown 26:34 The Challenges of Affording a Home in Southern California 31:02 The Evolution of Selling Out and the Tall Poppy Syndrome 33:28 Negative People Sound Smart 36:01 Strategies for Success and Preventing Resentment 39:13 Cynicism and Resentment in Society 40:12 The Role of Detractors and Negative Drivers 41:14 Exploring the Concept of a Hive Mind 42:37 The Impact of Collective Thinking 47:42 Generational Cycles and Society 53:46 What's in Our Queue? Book Recommendations "Amusing Ourselves to Death" by Neil Postman Discusses the impact of television and media on public discourse, contrasting the dystopian visions of George Orwell and Aldous Huxley. "The Age of Wonder" by Richard Holmes Explores the history of science during the late 18th and early 19th centuries, focusing on the lives of pioneering scientists and explorers. "Trust" by Hernan Diaz A novel set in the 1920s and 1930s, exploring themes of wealth, power, and the construction of history through the lens of complex characters in New York and Switzerland. "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy" by William Strauss and Neil Howe Examines generational cycles in American history, predicting societal trends and shifts based on recurring patterns. "Stiff: The Curious Lives of Human Cadavers" by Mary Roach A humorous and informative exploration of what happens to human bodies after death, delving into the science and history of cadavers. "Bad Therapy" by Abigail Shrier
50:11Two Degrees of Kevin Naked
Aug 28, 2024
Hello show notes readers, Thanks for tuning into another episode of Unqualified Advice. We went all over the place this time. Here is what you can look forward to in this episode: Chapters 00:00 Olympics and Movie Theater Experiences 08:04 Book Recommendations and Generational Cycles 19:34 The State of the Economy and Interest Rate Cuts 27:53 The Impact of Policy on Inflation and Liquidity 31:18 The Concept of Being a 'Townie' 35:04 The Naming of Generations and Its Significance 36:33 The Development and Potential of AI Technology 40:09 The Importance of Bubbles in Innovation 44:06 The Challenges Faced by IT Professionals during the CrowdStrike Incident 51:00 The Unintended Consequences of Legislation Companies discussed NBC/Peacock - Mentioned in relation to the Olympics broadcast and the iconography used for sports like beach volleyball. AMC Theatres - Discussed in the context of the movie-going experience, including concessions like Pepsi vs. Coke. Regal Cinemas - Compared with AMC in terms of concessions offered (Pepsi vs. Coke). Pepsi - Discussed as the concession choice at some movie theaters and in certain towns. Coca-Cola (specifically Cherry Coke) - Preferred by Sean over Pepsi at movie theaters. Epic Pass (Vail Resorts) - Mentioned in relation to the Pepsi contracts at certain mountain towns. Microsoft - Discussed in the context of IT issues, particularly with email and cybersecurity. CrowdStrike - The main focus of a cybersecurity incident that impacted IT systems. Symantec and McAfee - Mentioned in relation to antivirus and security software operating at the kernel level. BNY Mellon and JPMorgan - Referenced in relation to the flow of government money and financial systems. Fastenal, MSC, Grainger, Snap-on - Industrial supply companies mentioned in the context of economic conditions and sales trends.
1:12:34Your Sh*t Stinks: Find Someone Who Agrees
Aug 16, 2024
"Find at least one person who is just really, really good at calling out your bullshit. Cause we all do it." -Daniel Hatke Hello show notes readers, We covered two primary topics in this episode. One intuitively seems to be very important and valuable, Strategy Time. The second has been this Clark Kent's yellow sun, my Personal Board of Directors. Why are they so helpful? Bokonon on the Quest for Understanding Tiger got to hunt, Bird got to fly, Man got to sit and wonder, "Why, why, why?" Tiger got to sleep, Bird got to land, Man got to tell himself he understand. As always, thanks for listening. -Sean
1:21:21Fourth Turnings are Hard (to Predict)
Jul 23, 2024
Hello dear listener, This episode was originally recorded in June but it's release was delayed by, we'll say, a bit of weather. Sadly, I need both internet and power to make the publishing magic happen. Dan and I appreciate your patience. Anyway, onto the show notes! Hearts, Sean Recommendations Dan recommends Factfulness by Hans Rolling, saying "if you want to feel good about the world that we live in and the time that you live in, backed by data, read the book." Sean plans to check it out. Sean picked up Red Notice by Bill Browder based upon Dan's recommendation. Other than some boring details on company valuations in the post-Soviet era, it is a gripping story of evolution of the Russian society and a deep look into the problems lurking within its government. We referenced The Fourth Turning is Here, again. We heartily recommend this book and are currently working through it's predecessor The Fourth Turning. Expect a very special episode about this book, sometime before the first Tuesday in November. Updates We asked "will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) get sued?" We said yes. The answer is yes. We missed what he's done with $CHWY. Elon got paid! Interest rate futures markets, the unreliable beasts they are, have moved to predicting two cuts in 2024.
42:06Predictions and Jackasses
Jun 26, 2024
Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. Dan has been off traveling to visit his team in North Carolina, so we're releasing something we had conveniently prepared for such an occasion. Back in January, we sat down and made a bunch of predictions for things we think are important to the American Economy. Now we are sharing them with you, so you can see how we did. An Incomplete List of Topics Covered -Prostate health. -How the language used by the Federal Reserve can have a significant impact on the markets. -No recession in 2024. -The potential impact of tariffs and the strength of the U.S. dollar on industries like energy and manufacturing. -The power of belief and manifestation in shaping outcomes. -The ESG market's risks and challenges: we're due for a scam. -Regenerative farming practices. -The carbon footprint of electric vehicles (not as good as you think).
1:13:13The Passive Storm
Jun 10, 2024
This week, Sean and Dan breakdown their thoughts on investing actively vs. passively. 00:00 Introduction and Discussion on Investing Preferences 12:46 Passive Investing: Investing in Diversified Portfolios 26:47 Active vs. Passive Investing 27:44 The Benefits of Passive Investing 30:10 The Importance of a Healthy Cash Position 32:18 Active Investing in Specific Industries or Market Opportunities 36:00 The Magnetism of Active Investing 43:09 The Potential Risks of a Purely Passive Market 46:46 The Possibility of Outperforming the Market with Active Investing 52:10 The Potential Drawbacks of Passive Investing 56:35 The Impact of Passive Investing on the Market 01:04:19 The Challenges of Outperforming the Market as an Active Manager 01:06:11 The Emergence of Alternative ETFs 01:13:05 Debating the Effectiveness and Sustainability of Passive Investing Let us know what you think or what topics you want us to dive into next: www.twitter.com/slowvsm www.x.com/danielhatke Here's some of the material we consumed to help prep for this episode, for those who want to dig deeper: AQR Capital Management. (2018, April). Active and passive investing — the long-run evidence. Alternative Thinking. https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Alternative-Thinking/Alt-Thinking-2Q18-Active-vs-Passive-Investing.pdf Faber, M., & Asness, C. (2024, April 5). Episode #527: Cliff Asness - Timely & Timeless Investment Wisdom. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/04/05/cliff-asness/ Faber, M., & Bessembinder, H. (2024, May 3). Episode #532: Hendrik Bessembinder - do stocks outperform T-bills?. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/05/03/hendrik-bessembinder/ Faber, M., & French, K. (2024, May 1). Episode #530: Professor Kenneth French on risk, return, and rationality. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/04/19/kenneth-french/ Gabaix, X., & Koijen, R. S. (2021). In search of the origins of financial fluctuations: The inelastic markets hypothesis. National Bureau of Economic Research, 28967. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28967 Hoffstein, C., & Green, M. (2022, May 29). S05E01: Michael Green - The active impact of passive investing. Flirting with Models. https://www.flirtingwithmodels.com/2022/05/29/s05e01-the-active-impact-of-passive-investing/ Mandelbrot, B., Hudson, R. L., & Olazabal, J. (2019). The misbehavior of markets: A fractal view of financial turbulence. Hachette Audio. Ritholtz, B., & Einhorn, D. (2024, February 8). Masters in Business: David Einhorn. Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-02-08/masters-in-business-david-einhorn-podcast Taleb, N. N. (2016). Fooled by randomness. Random House.
Getting to Know Sean
May 27, 2024
Hello! Welcome to Unqualified Advice an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. This week, join us for a pair of episodes meant to help you get to know us and to give us some practicing our interviewing skills. Connect with us on twitter and let us know how we're doing. Good or bad, we want to hear your feedback. Dan: https://twitter.com/danielhatke Sean: https://twitter.com/slowvsm
Getting to Know Dan
May 27, 2024
Hello! Welcome to Unqualified Advice an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. This week, join us for a pair of episodes meant to help you get to know us and to give us some practicing our interviewing skills. Connect with us on twitter and let us know how we're doing. Good or bad, we want to hear your feedback. Dan: https://twitter.com/danielhatke Sean: https://twitter.com/slowvsm
50:40Managing Remote Teams, Walmart v. Amazon
May 12, 2024
Hello and welcome to Unqualified Advice. In this episode Dan talks about the challenges and nuances of managing a remote team in the Philippines. We look at the impact of the cost of living on operational decisions. We reflect on the personal and business challenges that come with entrepreneurship, including maintaining work-life balance and the isolation that can accompany working from home. Dan gives us a look inside what its like to sell products through Amazon and Walmart's online marketplace. Sean gives an update on Fig and we talk about reasons to consider tapping a retirement account. We make plans to go deep on David Einhorn's recent takes (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/einhorn-says-markets-are-broken-here-s-what-the-data-shows) Topics 00:00 Introduction and Casual Chat 02:43 Technology Education in the Philippines 09:09 Experiences and Challenges of Small Business Owners 16:20 Walmart as a Competitor to Amazon 29:22 The Challenges of Investment Advisory and Personal Finance 40:25 Improving Subscription Management for a Seamless Experience 43:53 The Hidden Dangers of Worms and Parasites Connect with us on twitter and let us know how we're doing. Good or bad, we want to hear your feedback. Dan: https://twitter.com/danielhatke Sean: https://twitter.com/slowvsm