Welcome to Flow City

Welcome to Flow City Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, Dan's been writing again. His latest Prometheus Dispatch essay on pseudo events — manufactured moments designed to create energy rather than report on it — kicks us off and leads to a conversation neither of us expected. We start with Kennedy-Nixon, swing through Greenland headlines, and land squarely on California's proposed billionaire tax, which turns out to be a far more interesting topic than the name suggests. We break it down: who it actually targets (~200 people), why the name "billionaire tax" is doing a lot of political heavy lifting, how it could trigger down rounds across Silicon Valley, and what happens when capital decides it's had enough. Venezuela and North Korea show up as cautionary tales. As they do. The big question we kept circling back to: are we entering a decade of flow or a decade of friction? We landed on a framework we're pretty proud of — expect the world to run more like Sun Tzu, but navigate it personally with Lao Tzu and Wu Wei. Dan calls it realpolitik meets riding the wave, which honestly might be the whole show in six words. Along the way, we get into why Texas quietly builds more green energy than anyone (narrative violation alert), why EVs got politicized instead of just adopted, when BYD might change everything, and why the best answer Dan ever learned at Columbia Business School was "it depends." Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed: • The Image by Daniel Boorstin • Private Truths, Public Lies by Timur Kuran • What's Our Problem? by Tim Urban • The Art of War by Sun Tzu • Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu • The Art of the Deal by Donald Trump • The Prince by Machiavelli • "Flack" Substack by Lulu Cheng Meservey Companies Discussed: • Tesla • BYD • Huawei • Ford • Cargill • Polymarket • Kalshi Links & References: • Dan's Prometheus Dispatch: prometheusdispatch.com • Lulu Cheng Meservey's "Flack" Substack: getflack.com Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 90% healthcare / 10% education split on the California billionaire tax Sean said 90% goes to healthcare and 10% to education and food assistance. That's essentially correct. The actual text allocates 90% to healthcare and 10% to K-12 education, with some language around food assistance as well. Score one for Sean. 🟢 ~200 people affected Sean said the tax would impact about 200–300 people. Multiple sources (CalMatters, CBS News, SF Standard) consistently cite approximately 200–255 California billionaires. Right in the zone. 🟡 Prediction market odds: ~65% on ballot, ~40% to pass Sean cited roughly 65% odds of making the ballot and 40% of passing. Current Polymarket has the "on ballot" market at about 59–60%, and the "passes" market at 37–40% (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket ~30–40% range). His "pass" number was spot on. The "on ballot" number was a touch high but in the ballpark. We'll give him a yellow. 🟡 Trump's 2016 odds were "in the 30s" Dan said Trump's prediction market odds in 2016 were "in the 30s." PredictIt had Clinton at 80–82% on election night, meaning Trump was at 18–20%. FiveThirtyEight's model had Trump at about 29%. So depending on which source you pick, Trump was somewhere between 18–29% — more like the teens-to-high-twenties than the thirties. Close-ish. We'll give it a yellow for the 538 number being 29%. 🟡 8 million Venezuelans have fled Sean said "8 million people, I believe, from Venezuela that have fled the country" and then wondered if that was just in the US. The real number: approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide (per UNHCR). Only about 770,000 are in the United States. The 8 million worldwide number is right; attributing it to the US would be way off. Sean did flag his uncertainty, so partial credit. 🟢 Texas leads the nation in green/renewable energy Sean stated Texas is the leader in green energy nationwide. This is confirmed and then some. Texas generated 169,442 GWh from wind and solar in 2024 — nearly double California's 92,316 GWh. Texas leads in wind, is #1 or #2 in solar depending on the metric, and has been the national renewable energy leader for over a decade. Narrative violation confirmed. 🟡 EV sales peaked in 2023 and are "down about 10% from peak" Sean said EV sales kind of peaked in 2023 and are down roughly 10%. Tesla sales specifically peaked in 2023 and have declined since. But total US EV sales actually grew 7%+ in 2024 to a record ~1.3 million units, then dipped about 2% in 2025 to ~1.275 million. So total EVs haven't really dropped 10% from peak — it's more like 2%. Tesla's decline is steeper. The direction is right but the magnitude is overstated. 🟡 Dan's home state Colorado has "60% coal" for electricity Dan said "we have 60% coal" for his electricity in Colorado. Here's the thing — he was right about a decade ago. Colorado's coal-fired generation was indeed at 60% in 2014. But it's dropped fast: down to 33% in 2023 and just 27–28% in 2024. Wind now provides 30% of Colorado's electricity, and renewables overall hit 43% in 2024. Dan's number is outdated by about 10 years, but he wasn't making it up — at least the number existed in recent memory. 🔴 James Garfield: "1864ish, 1863" Sean dated James Garfield to the 1860s. Garfield was nominated in 1880, inaugurated in 1881, and assassinated in 1881. Off by almost two decades. However, Sean's story about how Garfield became president is largely accurate and actually undersells it: Garfield went to the convention as a congressman to nominate someone else (John Sherman), gave a nominating speech so powerful that after 36 ballots of deadlock, the delegates chose him instead. He was then shot by a deranged office-seeker four months into his presidency. Great story, wrong decade. 🟢 Garfield was a congressman who gave a great speech and became president Despite the date being off, the substance of Sean's Garfield story checks out. Garfield was indeed a congressman (actually an 8-term congressman), he delivered a speech at a contested convention that turned the crowd in his favor, and after 36 ballots he was nominated as a dark horse. Then assassinated. All accurate. BONUS ID: Dan couldn't remember the name of "The Flack" Substack author — said "Treverney something" with a hyphenated last name. The person he's describing is Lulu Cheng Meservey, who writes the Substack called "Flack" (at getflack.com) and coined the "go direct" communications movement. Final Score: 4 green, 5 yellow, 1 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it. Chapters • 00:00 – Intro • 01:22 – Dan's Prometheus Dispatch & the Art of Not Assuming • 03:38 – Pseudo Events: From Kennedy-Nixon to Today • 05:26 – Greenland, Geopolitics & the Art of the Deal • 06:31 – California's Billionaire Tax: What's Really at Stake • 11:20 – The Naming Battle: Why "Billionaire Tax" Is Dangerous Framing • 12:40 – Down Rounds, Capital Flight & Unintended Consequences • 17:11 – Venezuela & North Korea: The Long Game of Systems • 22:02 – Stated vs. Revealed Preferences: Texas Builds More Green Energy • 23:55 – A Decade of Flow or a Decade of Friction? • 26:53 – BYD, Huawei & the Future of EVs in North America • 33:19 – The Kano Model & EV Adoption S-Curves • 36:29 – Realpolitik and the Preference Cascade Goes Global • 41:31 – Ride the Wave: Sun Tzu Meets Lao Tzu • 44:50 – "It Depends" — The Most Defeating Answer • 49:14 – Fed Independence Tease & Closing