Unqualified AdviceUnqualified Advice

One rule, one stock, once a month

The Ketchup Bot

Prices through Sep 30, 2026 · pulled 2026-10-01 · rebalanced monthly · paper money

Read this before the numbers

  • Survivorship. These seven stocks were named the Magnificent Seven in 2023 because they had already won. Any rule that only ever holds one of them inherits that head start. Nobody was running this on this list in 2022.
  • Tiny sample. The headline backtest is 48 monthly bets. That is not enough to separate a good rule from a lucky one.
  • Bear-market bottom. The window opens at the September 2022 close, within weeks of the 2022 low. Almost anything long and aggressive looks good from there.
  • Price only. No dividends, no trading costs, no slippage, no taxes. Month-end closes from Yahoo Finance, split-adjusted.
  • It works until it doesn't. Over the full history the bot can see, from June 2013, buying the best average rank beat buying the worst (+20,564% vs +17,384%). The recent window is where the rule shines. That is a reason to watch it, not to trust it.

The rule

At each month-end close, rank AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA, TSLA by trailing 3-, 6-, 12-month price return, average the three ranks, and hold the single worst for the next month.

The rule is Sheel Mohnot's, from his post on buying the worst Mag 7 stock each month. The name is Dan's, from Ep 59: “you're constantly buying the ketchup.” Dan remembered the lookbacks as 30, 60 and 90 days, so his 1/2/3-month version runs alongside as a comparison. Ties on the average go to the worse 12-month return. This page closes the Ep 17 paper-trading promise: the bot is the paper account.

Current holding

Paper money$5,000 notional since Oct 1, 2026. No real account, no real orders.

Holding

TSLA

since the Sep 30, 2026 close

Entry

$354.81

14.092 shares · $0.01 cash

Value

$4,999.99

at Sep 30, 2026 close

P&L

−$0.01

−0.00%

Next decision: the October 2026 close. The rebalance script is dry-run by default and only ever writes to a JSON ledger that a human reviews. It has no broker connection.

Ranks at the Sep 30, 2026 close

Symbol3-mo return6-mo return12-mo returnRank 3mRank 6mRank 12mAvg rank
TSLA
the pick — worst average rank
−15.6%−4.6%−20.2%1111.00
AMZN
+4.5%+19.6%+13.5%3243.00
GOOGL
−3.7%+19.7%+41.5%2374.00
META
+28.7%+26.8%−1.3%6424.00
NVDA
+14.1%+31.0%+22.4%4554.67
AAPL
best average rank (the control)
+15.1%+31.2%+30.8%5665.67
MSFT
+37.5%+38.6%−1.0%7735.67

Rank 1 is the worst return in that horizon. Ties on the average go to the worse 12-month return. Price returns from month-end closes, no dividends.

Dan's version (1/2/3-month) would pick AMZN.

Pick log

Paper ledger

Month-endActionHoldingPriceSharesCash
Sep 30, 2026
Opened
TSLA$354.8114.092$0.01

Every row is a hand-reviewed entry in a JSON file. Shares are fractional, floored to four decimals. Paper money; no order was placed anywhere.

What the rule would have held, Oct 2022 to Sep 2026

Times picked: MSFT 13 · TSLA 11 · AAPL 9 · META 8 · AMZN 3 · GOOGL 3 · NVDA 1

Ranked atHeld throughHoldingAvg rankMonth return
Aug 31, 2026Sep 2026META1.67+26.7%
Jul 31, 2026Aug 2026META1.67+2.8%
Jun 30, 2026Jul 2026MSFT1.33+24.6%
May 31, 2026Jun 2026META1.33−10.9%
Apr 30, 2026May 2026MSFT1.67+10.4%
Mar 31, 2026Apr 2026MSFT1.00+10.2%
Feb 28, 2026Mar 2026MSFT1.67−5.7%
Jan 31, 2026Feb 2026MSFT1.33−8.7%
Dec 31, 2025Jan 2026META2.00+8.5%
Nov 30, 2025Dec 2025META1.33+1.9%
Oct 31, 2025Nov 2025META1.00−0.1%
Sep 30, 2025Oct 2025AMZN2.00+11.2%
Aug 31, 2025Sep 2025AAPL2.33+9.7%
Jul 31, 2025Aug 2025AAPL1.33+11.8%
Jun 30, 2025Jul 2025AAPL1.67+1.2%
May 31, 2025Jun 2025AAPL1.33+2.2%
Apr 30, 2025May 2025GOOGL2.00+8.1%
Mar 31, 2025Apr 2025MSFT2.67+5.3%
Feb 28, 2025Mar 2025MSFT1.67−5.4%
Jan 31, 2025Feb 2025MSFT1.33−4.4%
Dec 31, 2024Jan 2025MSFT1.00−1.5%
Nov 30, 2024Dec 2024MSFT1.33−0.5%
Oct 31, 2024Nov 2024MSFT1.00+4.2%
Sep 30, 2024Oct 2024GOOGL2.00+3.2%
Aug 31, 2024Sep 2024MSFT2.33+3.2%
Jul 31, 2024Aug 2024MSFT2.33−0.3%
Jun 30, 2024Jul 2024TSLA2.00+17.3%
May 31, 2024Jun 2024TSLA1.00+11.1%
Apr 30, 2024May 2024AAPL1.33+12.9%
Mar 31, 2024Apr 2024TSLA1.00+4.3%
Feb 29, 2024Mar 2024TSLA1.00−12.9%
Jan 31, 2024Feb 2024TSLA1.00+7.8%
Dec 31, 2023Jan 2024AAPL2.00−4.2%
Nov 30, 2023Dec 2023TSLA2.00+3.5%
Oct 31, 2023Nov 2023AAPL1.67+11.2%
Sep 30, 2023Oct 2023AAPL1.67−0.3%
Aug 31, 2023Sep 2023AAPL2.33−8.9%
Jul 31, 2023Aug 2023AMZN2.33+3.2%
Jun 30, 2023Jul 2023GOOGL1.00+10.9%
May 31, 2023Jun 2023TSLA1.00+28.4%
Apr 30, 2023May 2023TSLA1.00+24.1%
Mar 31, 2023Apr 2023TSLA2.33−20.8%
Feb 28, 2023Mar 2023AMZN1.33+9.6%
Jan 31, 2023Feb 2023TSLA1.33+18.8%
Dec 31, 2022Jan 2023TSLA1.00+40.6%
Nov 30, 2022Dec 2022META1.33+1.9%
Oct 31, 2022Nov 2022META1.00+26.8%
Sep 30, 2022Oct 2022NVDA1.33+11.2%

Backtest, September 2022 to September 2026

Ketchup Bot backtest: growth of $1, log scale1×2×5×10×2023202420252026
  • Buy the worst (the rule) 14×
  • Dan's version (1/2/3-month) 5.6×
  • Buy the best (control) 3.9×
  • Equal-weight Mag 7 4×
  • SPY 2.1×
StrategySep 2022 → Sep 2026AnnualizedSince June 2013Annualized
Buy the worst (the rule)+1,341%+94.8%+17,384%+47.7%
Dan's version (1/2/3-month)+461%+53.9%+3,245%+30.3%
Buy the best (control)+290%+40.5%+20,564%+49.5%
Equal-weight Mag 7+305%+41.8%+5,755%+36.0%
SPY+114%+20.9%+375%+12.5%

48 and 159 monthly holding periods respectively. Equal-weight rebalances to equal dollars every month. SPY is buy and hold. Price returns only.

Unqualified Advice is an entertainment podcast. Nothing here is investment advice.

Data: Yahoo Finance monthly closes, pulled 2026-10-01 by a script in the site repo. The rule, the ledger and every number on this page render from JSON files checked into git. Nothing is fetched when the page is built.